College Football Buy or Sell: Colorado Buffaloes Over 3.5 Wins

One of the most-discussed teams of the 2023 College Football offseason is the Colorado Buffaloes. 

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Yep, you read that right. Colorado football is back on folks’ minds after Deion Sanders signed a deal to become the new head coach and has dominated headlines ever since with his controversial interviews and roster construction tactics. 

With so much attention drawn toward a program that finished just 1-11 a year ago, the Buffaloes’ regular season win total will be a fascinating handicap. Let’s take a look at BetMGM Sportsbook’s betting insights and try to determine what the correct side is to be on for this win total.

BetMGM College Football Insights: Regular Season Win Totals 

Most Bet Overs (number of tickets)

• Colorado 3.5
• Iowa 7.5
• California 5.5

The Buffaloes are dominating more than just the headlines — they’re also commandeering the betting market. Their win total is just 3.5 games, and bettors love the over. In fact, that’s the single most-bet win total at BetMGM. 

Coach Prime went 12-1 as Jackson State’s head coach a year ago, and he’s attempting to win with a similar game plan in Boulder. That involves overhauling the roster and recruiting the transfer portal very heavily. He brought in his son, Shedeur Sanders, to play quarterback and 5-star Travis Hunter to play on both sides of the ball. 

Shedeur was a finalist for the Walter Payton Award a year ago, a prestige bestowed upon the FCS’s best player, and he’ll operate under Sean Lewis. Lewis may be one of the best offensive coordinators in the country after being the head coach at Kent State before being convinced by Deion to join the Buffs’ fast-paced spread attack. 

Sanders will have a good wide receiving room to throw to that includes USF transfers Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn Jr., along with Hunter. Houston transfer Alton McCaskill IV has 18 touchdowns as a freshman and provides them with a difference-maker at running back. This offense will score its fair share of points. 

Defense could be a struggle with just three returning starters, but Coach Prime’s controversial transfer portal maneuverings did result in talent upgrades on all three levels. 

The schedule does not set up easily, as they open the season at TCU and then host Nebraska the following week. Non-conference games are generally supposed to pad Power 5 team’s records, but the Buffaloes instead face a team looking to follow up its National Championship appearance in Week 1 and then a hungry Matt Rhule-led Cornhuskers team in Week 2. 

There’s only a single game against a non-Power 5 opponent on the schedule, and that’s a likely win over Colorado State in Week 3. 

The schedule is so difficult that a bowl game seems improbable, but notching just four wins is still certainly in the cards. Arizona State and Stanford are both supposed to be down this season, and the Buffaloes face both in back-to-back weeks in early October. The Nebraska, UCLA, Arizona, and Washington State games are all winnable, even though the Buffs will likely be underdogs in each. If we count the Colorado State game as a win, they would need three more wins, and there are six possibilities that I’m counting.

The number seems spot on at 3.5, and I’m inclined to think they reach four wins. 

Verdict: Buy Colorado Over 3.5 Wins