Ben DiGiacomo

Home Derby Prop: Distance Of Longest HR O/U 485.5 Feet

The 2023 <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/mlb">MLB</a> Home Run Derby is upon us in Seattle, with Julio Rodriguez coming in as the defending champion in his home ballpark. In what is going to be an exciting night, two-time Derby champion Pete Alonso is the favorite at +320. Here are our favorite picks to give you nonstop action throughout the night.
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;">
<h2>Favorite Round 1 Upset: Adley Rutschman (+198) </h2>
</li>
</ul>
On its face, this upset is hard to get behind. Luis Robert Jr. has been a monster for the White Sox this season. Belting 26 homers, Robert is the deserving No. 1 overall seed in this tournament, and obviously, that comes with lofty expectations. In the past five home run derbys, the eighth seed has defeated the number one seed in the opening round each year. Yes, arguments can be made why Adley Rutschman, a switch-hitting catcher that has only hit 12 homer runs, doesn&#8217;t stand a chance against Robert, but sometimes you have to read the trends for what they are. History shows that backing Adley is an incredible value at nearly 2-1 odds.
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;">
<h2>Round 1 Parlay: Pete Alonso + Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+135)</h2>
</li>
</ul>
Pete Alonso is up first as he&#8217;ll go up against Julio Rodriguez, who knocked him out in the second round of last season&#8217;s Home Run Derby. Alonso, who is raking as is with 26 homers on the season, has shown in recent years that he&#8217;s built for this contest. While Rodriguez will be a fun show in his home ballpark, he&#8217;s struggled this season. Only launching 13 homers this year, while he has shown to be successful in this contest, Alonso is the better slugger, a proven commodity, and seeking revenge.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has struggled this year like Rodriguez, but Vlad Jr. is a clear -215 round-one favorite over Mookie Betts, who is tied for second in the NL for home runs this season. Sometimes, you just got to read the line for what it is, and comparing how the books price Guerrero Jr in comparison to Rodriguez shows you all you need to know about their opponents. Vlad has the stature and builds to excel in this format, while Mookie&#8217;s small frame and lack of effortless power make sustainable endurance a question mark around him. Back Vlad here.
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;">
<h2>Total Home Runs Hit: OVER 276.5 (-106)</h2>
</li>
</ul>
It doesn&#8217;t need to be stated that this field is full of guys who can absolutely hit baseballs for miles, so we&#8217;re going to ride with the number of home runs in the entire tournament to go over the projected total of 276.5. Last season, we saw a total of 292 homers. In 2021, despite the festivities being held in Coors Field, there were 309 long balls. In 2019, with the derby not being held in 2020, contestants mashed 311 homers. Back the history, and back a bet that surely will be fun to root for.
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;">
<h2>Favorite Longshot: Adolis Garcia (+700)</h2>
</li>
</ul>
The four-five matchup between Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena could be the best matchup of the opening round, but it seems to be forgotten in the discussions. Both guys can mash, but I have more confidence in Garcia here, given his advantage in regular-season production. After that, I expect Garcia to take down the winner between Luis Robert Jr. and Adley Rutschman, as No. 1 seeds have struggled in recent years, and Adley is not considered a power hitter. Then, once you&#8217;re in the final round, anything can happen.
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;">
<h2>Winner: Pete Alonso (+320)</h2>
</li>
</ul>
Pete Alonso is the favorite here, and given his track record in this contest, it&#8217;s hard not to back him. At only +320 odds, the value is there, with an advantageous path. After he likely takes down Julio Rodriguez in the opening round, I expect Pete to defeat the winner of Betts and Guerrero, given the lack of confidence in Betts&#8217;s endurance and Guerrero&#8217;s regular season production, and make him a three-time Home Run Derby champion. 
For added value, back the exact final outcome to be Pete Alonso over Adolis Garcia at +1300.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with <a href="https://www.sportsgrid.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SportsGrid</a>.

MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets and Predictions

Exploring Washington Commanders' +220 NFC East odds, focusing on Terry McLaurin's crucial role in their success. Adam Kaufman talks their budding potential.

Washington Commanders: A Strong Bid for NFC East Title?

Drake Maye eyes NFL future with 30+ TD passes and potential as a leading rush quarterback. Adam Kaufman joins to talk about his potential breakout season.

Analyzing Drake Maye's Potential Stats for the 2025 NFL Season

Deion Sanders, now cancer-free, faces a challenging season with Colorado. With a low win prediction of 5.5, missing key players may impact performance.

Deion Sanders, Colorado May Face a Tough Season Ahead

LATEST VIDEOS

Adley Rutschman,Luis Robert Jr.,Mookie Betts,Pete Alonso,Julio Rodríguez,Randy Arozarena,Adolis García,Vladimir Guerrero Jr.,Baltimore Orioles,Baltimore  MD,American  League,American  League East,Chicago White Sox,Chicago  IL,American  League Central,Los Angeles Dodgers,Los Angeles  CA,National  League,National  League West,New York Mets,Flushing  Queens  NY,National  League East,Seattle Mariners,Seattle  WA,American  League West,Tampa Bay Rays,St. Petersburg  FL,Texas Rangers,Arlington  TX,Toronto Blue Jays,Toronto  ON

keywords

twitter:card

twitter:title

https://sg-images-bucket.nyc3.cdn.digitaloceanspaces.com/thumnbail-webp/article/1813100-1920x1080.webp?v=1754550495

twitter:image

thumbnail

google

The MLB Home Run Derby is upon us, with Pete Alonso sitting as the favorite in what will be an exciting night of moon shots.

description

expires

robots

og:locale

og:site_name

og:type

og:title

og:description

og:image

og:image:type

og:image:width

og:image:height

og:image:secure_url

article:published_time

article:modified_time

MLB Best Bets Today: Wednesday's Top 2 Betting Picks (August 6)

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Red Sox, Mariners, and Brewers Best Bets Today

Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Today (8/6)

MLB Prospect Watch: Top 8 Draft-Eligible Pitchers for 2026

Yankees vs. Rangers: MLB Same Game Parlay Picks Today (8/5)

MLB Best Bets Today: Tuesday's Top 2 Betting Picks (August 5)

MLB 3-Game Parlay | Mets, Giants and Rangers Best Bets Today

Go Yard: Top Home Run Picks for FanDuel's MLB Dinger Tuesday (Aug. 5)

NL Top Players of July: Gold, Silver and Bronze Medal Hitters and Pitchers

AL Top Players of July: Gold, Silver and Bronze Medal Hitters and Pitchers

Comment

Home

Articles

SportsGrid is your source for the best sports bets today. Watch SportsGrid for live sports news coverage, scores, odds, moneylines, sports betting tips & more.

sportsgrid.com

College Football Today

NFL Pro Football Today

Bare Knuckle Fighting Main Event

Fantasy Sports Today

The Early Line Live

NewsWire Live

The Bostonian Vs. The Book

Bare Knuckle Fighting Knuckle Up

MODUS Super Series Darts

Gametime Decisions Live

Color Up How To Win At Craps

The Smylie Kaufman Show

Daily Racing Form Weekend Preview

Combat Sports Report

LatiNation Futbol Club

MLB Pro Baseball Today

2025 NFL Draft Special

Front Office Sports Today

2025 NBA Draft SportsGrid Special

OUR SHOWS

ESPN now includes NFL Network's Red Zone on platform and introduces ESPN Bet. For more legal analysis across the gaming industry, check out Legal Sports Report.

ESPN Acquires NFL Network's Assets & Enhances Betting Hub

LATEST SPORTSGRID VIDEOS

Wherever you are, SportsGrid can be there too. Here are all of the platforms and subscription services you can find us on and how to watch SportsGrid today.

Where to Watch SportsGrid | How to Watch SportsGrid | SportsGrid

Samsung TV Plus

Roku TV

FireTV

LG Channels

Vizio

Xiaomi

VIDAA

SportsGrid is free to watch on any of the following Connected TV’s

FREE ON MY TV

Amazon Prime Video

YouTube TV

FuboTV

Plex

Sling Tv

FreeCast

Local Now

Stremium

Rad TV

Free Live Sports

SportsGrid is free to watch on any of the following Streaming services

LIVE STREAMING SERVICES

Sports.Tv

YouTube

Download the new SportsGrid app, watch on SportsGrid.com or our YouTube Channel

WEB/MOBILE

SportsGrid is free to watch on any of the following platforms

ALL PARTNERS

Wherever you are, SportsGrid can be there too. Here are all of the platforms and subscription services you can find us on:

WHERE TO WATCH SPORTSGRID

MORE ARTICLES

Sports Betting

Sportsbook Promos

Social Casinos