2025-26 Free Agent Watch: Top Starting Pitchers On the Open Market

The Top Starting Pitchers Still Available in 2026 Free Agency — and What They Mean for Bettors

If there’s one constant every MLB offseason, it’s this: teams always need starting pitching.

Not everyone is shopping for an ace, but every front office is looking for innings, stability, and insurance against the inevitable grind of 162 games. As the 2026 market takes shape, several impactful starters remain available — ranging from true frontline arms to mid-rotation stabilizers and high-variance rebound bets.

From a betting perspective, these pitchers matter more than position players. One rotation upgrade can swing:

Season win totals
Division prices
Game-to-game totals and first-five markets

Let’s break down the top starting pitchers still available, organized by tier, and explain how each group impacts the betting board.

Market Context: Who’s Already Off the Board

Before diving into what’s left, it’s important to understand how the market has already shifted.

Dylan Cease set the tone with a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, immediately solidifying the Blue Jays’ rotation and tightening AL futures. Merrill Kelly’s return to Arizona gave the Diamondbacks stability, while Michael King re-signing with the San Diego Padres removed one of the highest-upside arms from the open market.

With those names gone, demand now outweighs supply — a dynamic that inflates both price and importance for the pitchers still available.

Potential Aces: Ceiling Plays That Move Futures

This tier comes with a caveat: “potential” is doing real work here. Only one pitcher in this group was a true wire-to-wire ace in 2025, but each has the profile to anchor a rotation in 2026.

Framber Valdez — The Safest Ace Bet

Age in 2026: 32

2025: 31 GS, 192 IP, 3.66 ERA, 3.38 FIP

Valdez is the cleanest projection on the board. He takes the ball every fifth day, works deep into games, and consistently outperforms league-average run prevention.

For bettors, Valdez is valuable because:

He stabilizes first-five unders
He raises a team’s win-total floor
His presence often compresses division odds immediately

Any contender that lands Valdez will see its futures price adjust quickly.

Zac Gallen — A Bounce-Back Ace Candidate

Age in 2026: 30

2025: 33 GS, 192 IP, 4.83 ERA, 4.51 FIP

Gallen’s surface numbers took a hit in 2025, but durability wasn’t the issue — he made 33 starts and nearly logged 200 innings. Teams betting on Gallen are wagering that health plus regression gets him closer to prior form.

From a betting standpoint, Gallen is a variance play:

Higher upside than most free agents
Greater risk baked into early-season pricing
Potential value in start-by-start markets if command rebounds

Mid-Rotation Arms: The Most Important Tier for Bettors

These pitchers may not headline press conferences, but this is the group that quietly swings betting outcomes the most. Quality No. 2–4 starters often decide whether a team clears its win total.

Ranger Suárez — Quiet Consistency

Age in 2026: 30

2025: 26 GS, 157.1 IP, 3.20 ERA, 3.21 FIP

Suárez brings one of the steadiest profiles on the market. He limits damage, misses enough bats, and doesn’t rely on overpowering stuff.

For bettors:

Excellent first-five market arm
Raises team-wide under viability
Fits contenders looking for reliability over flash

Lucas Giolito — Innings with Volatility

Age in 2026: 31

2025: 26 GS, 145 IP, 3.41 ERA, 4.17 FIP

Giolito’s results outpaced his peripherals, making him a classic regression watch. Still, teams value the innings — and innings matter to bettors just as much.

Expect:

More volatile game totals
Matchup-dependent betting value
Heavy usage on short-term deals

Chris Bassitt — Aging, but Bankable

Age in 2026: 37

2025: 36 GS, 170.1 IP, 3.96 ERA

Bassitt isn’t flashy, but durability has real betting value. Pitchers who consistently take the mound reduce bullpen strain — a massive factor in season-long pricing.

Tyler Mahle — Upside with Health Risk

Age in 2026: 31

2025: 16 GS, 77 IP, 2.18 ERA

Mahle’s run prevention was excellent in limited action, but the innings count tells the story. He’s a classic high-upside gamble for teams willing to manage workload.

For bettors, Mahle is:

Dangerous in early-season starts
Risky for futures without depth behind him

Quintana and Eflin — Depth with Diminishing Margins

Veterans like José Quintana and Zach Eflin profile more as rotation glue than difference-makers. They matter most to teams trying to survive the middle of the schedule — and to bettors trying to identify bullpen stress points.

Back-of-the-Rotation Arms: Where Betting Value Often Hides

This tier includes everything from future Hall of Famers on the back nine to pitchers looking for one last prove-it deal.

Names like Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Walker Buehler, and Marcus Stroman won’t command ace money — but they will command attention.

From a betting perspective:

These pitchers often create early-season mispricing
Name recognition can inflate public perception
Savvy bettors look for pitch count limits, velocity trends, and bullpen usage

One healthy stretch from a pitcher like Scherzer or Verlander can swing a month’s worth of prices before books recalibrate.

Coming Off Surgery: The Long Game Bets

Pitchers like John Means, Jordan Montgomery, Jose Urquidy, and Griffin Canning won’t factor heavily in April — but they matter in June, July, and August.

Teams signing these arms are:

Planning for the second half
Managing workloads strategically
Accepting short-term volatility for long-term upside

For bettors, this is where timing matters more than talent.

Betting Bottom Line: Pitching Still Sets the Market

The remaining 2026 free-agent starters may not all be aces, but every one of them affects pricing.

One signing can:

Shift a team’s win total by multiple games
Tighten division odds
Change how totals are lined nightly

As supply thins, expect urgency — and when urgency meets pitching, betting markets move fast.

The smart play isn’t just tracking who signs — it’s understanding how each arm changes the shape of a team’s season.