Assessing World Series Odds After the Dodgers-Kyle Tucker Signing
Grant White
Host · Writer
The World Series futures board continues to oscillate. Speculation runs rampant this time of year, as bettors adjust to news and rumors of signings. A free agent stone cast in the waters can have rippling effects across the betting markets. Adding an ace atop the starting rotation or a power bat at the heart of the lineup is the difference between winning and losing in October. Despite the constant movement, there has been one constant atop the World Series betting board: the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Their latest signing of Kyle Tucker solidified their position as the betting favorites, but what is the cascading effect throughout the rest of the betting market?
Three-Peat Incoming
The Dodgers’ perceived superiority has shifted dramatically this offseason. Still, LA has never fallen from the front of the pack. Way back in December, Kalshi had the defending champs listed at a mind-numbing 68%. Take a second to digest that. A 30-team professional league, and no team other than the Dodgers had more than a 5% chance to claim the Commissioner’s Trophy.
Granted, the Dodgers were knocked off their pedestal, plummeting as low as 11.1%. But as rumors of Tucker’s interest in signing in LA gained momentum, so did the Dodgers’ World Series odds.
Starting in January, we saw a steady climb in LA’s championship odds. They started at 26%, improving to 29.5% before the signing. Once it was official, the Dodgers started trading as high as 38%. The price has settled around 35%, which is still a 4% boost relative to traditional markets, where Los Angeles is priced as a +220 favorite.
Second Tier Contenders
Not surprisingly, the betting prices condense from there; however, there is still a collection of second-tier teams expected to compete for the runner-up spot.
Led by the New York Yankees (9%), the Mariners (8%), Blue Jays (7%), Braves (6%), and Cubs (6%) are a shade ahead of the rest of the pack. Generally, this aligns with traditional prices. But like any market, there are a few exceptions.
Chicago stands out as an outlier. Kalshi has the Cubs priced among the second-tier of teams, whereas most sportsbooks are hanging them around +2000. The sharpest bettors will exploit these discrepancies to build expansive portfolios for a long-term winning edge.
The Best of the Rest
Twenty-four other teams make up the rest of the World Series market, none of which are priced higher than 5%. Still, several of those teams could vastly overachieve relative to implied probabilities.
The New York Mets and Boston Red Sox stand out among this tier of contenders. New York has had a productive offseason, retooling its lineup with the addition of Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, and Bo Bichette. Those three infielders will be the heart of the order throughout the upcoming campaign and should position the Mets to exorcise old demons.
The Red Sox took a slightly different approach this offseason. Their most glaring weakness was their pitching staff, which got the overhaul it desperately needed. Boston brought in Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez as top-of-the-rotation arms, solidifying their depth with the acquisition of Johan Oviedo.
Bettors haven’t bought into these wholesale changes yet, but these prices should move dramatically once the MLB season kicks off in March.
Status Quo
Maintaining the status quo is not a recipe for success in today’s MLB. In that regard, several teams could underachieve relative to current positions. The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies are two teams we predict will falter in 2026.
Other than the addition of Adolis Garcia, the Phillies enter the upcoming campaign with virtually the same roster. Three straight 90-win seasons and back-to-back division championships won’t help them compete against a more competitive group of NL East teams. So, it’s not surprising to see $3 million being traded on the Phillies not winning the World Series.
Likewise, Tatsuya Imai was the only notable offseason signing for the Astros. With Seattle taking the reins in the AL West, Houston could have a problem living up to their 5% World Series odds on Kalshi.
LA’s World Series to Lose
There is no single deal or trade that could move the Dodgers from their perch atop the World Series betting board. Over the past few years, LA has invested over a billion dollars in building this iteration of their team. While that will have a long-lasting impact on the business side of the game for years to come, the more immediate effect is on the futures board.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the cream of the betting crop. Barring an American League conglomerate to challenge LA, this is the Dodgers’ championship to lose.
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