The New York Yankees Need More from Anthony Volpe

Anthony Volpe, the Yankees, and a Shrinking Margin for Error in 2026

“The next Derek Jeter” was never a fair bar.

It wasn’t fair to Didi Gregorius. It isn’t fair to Anthony Volpe. And yet, for more than a decade, the New York Yankees have been searching for stability — not superstardom — at shortstop and keep coming up short.

Volpe was supposed to change that.

A first-round pick in 2019 and a consensus top-five prospect in baseball, Volpe arrived with the blend teams crave: power, speed, defensive projection, and just enough hit tool to justify everyday reps in the Bronx. Three seasons in, the Yankees have answers — just not the ones they hoped for.

As the 2026 season approaches, Volpe’s development has become more than a player evaluation question. It’s now a betting variable that directly impacts how the Yankees should be priced.

Volpe’s First Three Seasons: Production Without a Leap

Volpe’s rookie season in 2023 was uneven but encouraging. A 20/20 campaign paired with a .209/.283/.364 slash line wasn’t loud, but it felt like a foundation. The Yankees believed the bat would come.

In 2024, the profile shifted. The power dipped, the strikeout rate improved, and the slash line ticked up to .243/.293/.364. The defense took a step forward, reinforcing the idea that even if the bat lagged, Volpe could still be a net positive at a premium position.

Then came 2025 — and the optimism stalled.

• Another season with a wRC+ south of 90

• Fewer stolen bases

• Defensive regression across multiple metrics

• No meaningful improvement against non-fastballs

At 24, Volpe isn’t old. But with 472 games and 1,886 plate appearances, the sample is no longer small.

For bettors, this matters. Projection is built on trendlines — and Volpe’s line has flattened.

Volpe’s Ceiling Has Shifted — and the Data Is Clear

At some point, players tell you who they are.

Volpe has consistently struggled against breaking balls and off-speed pitches, posting an xwOBA of .275 or worse against those offerings in all three seasons. Pitchers have adjusted. The league knows the book.

In 2025, Volpe chased less — a positive sign — but that discipline didn’t translate into better outcomes. His walk rate stayed modest, and his in-zone contact actually declined. Most of his offensive value came against fastballs, where he posted a .342 xwOBA and hit 14 home runs.

That’s not a sustainable profile for a middle-infield bat unless adjustments follow.

The shoulder injury he suffered in May — which required offseason surgery — complicates matters further. Historically, hitters returning from shoulder issues often experience another dip in the first year back. If that pattern holds, 2026 could be another uphill climb.

For a contending team, that’s a problem.

Defense Was Supposed to Be the Safety Net

For decades, teams have accepted below-average offense at shortstop if the glove played.

The Yankees could live with an 87 wRC+, speed, and solid defense. What they can’t live with is all three slipping at once.

Volpe’s defensive metrics took a clear step back in 2025. Whether it was mechanical, mental, or injury-related, the drop removed his biggest margin for error. Without plus defense, the offensive shortcomings become magnified — especially on a roster that already leans right-handed and power-heavy.

That shift matters for betting markets, particularly:

• Defensive run prevention

• Late-inning variance

• Close-game outcomes

Shortstop defense quietly swings win totals more than most casual bettors realize.

The Yankees Might Not Be Able to Buy Time Anymore

In past eras, this wouldn’t be an issue.

The Yankees would spend around Volpe, insulate him with veteran production, and wait. But the organization is starting to sound — and act — differently.

Hal Steinbrenner’s comments about expenses, including a $100 million annual obligation to New York City, raised eyebrows. That’s not language typically associated with the “Evil Empire.”

If payroll flexibility tightens, internal improvement becomes mandatory — not optional.

That raises the stakes for Volpe.

Aaron Judge is aging into his mid-30s. Giancarlo Stanton is 36. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is nearing free agency. The rotation has absorbed repeated health blows. This roster needs cheap, productive contributors to offset expensive stars.

Volpe was supposed to be one of them.

Betting Impact: Volpe Is Now a Swing Variable

From a betting perspective, Anthony Volpe is no longer a neutral asset. He’s a swing factor.

• If he takes a step forward, the Yankees’ lineup depth improves materially

• If he stagnates or regresses post-surgery, the margin between New York and the AL’s second tier narrows quickly

This affects:

• Season win totals

• AL East pricing

• Game-to-game totals, especially against strong right-handed pitching

Markets often price the Yankees on brand and top-end talent. But thin margins show up over 162 games — and middle-infield production is one of the quiet places value leaks.

Final Thoughts: Time Isn’t Up, but the Clock Is Loud

Anthony Volpe isn’t a bust. He’s a useful big-league shortstop.

The problem is that “useful” may no longer be enough for where the Yankees are headed.

The leash has shortened. The expectations have shifted. And the organizational safety net feels thinner than it has in years.

How the Yankees handle Volpe — and how Volpe responds — will tell us a lot about this next phase of Yankees baseball. Whether they recommit to patience and internal growth, or revert to their old habits under pressure, remains to be seen.

For bettors, one thing is clear: the Yankees’ margin for error is shrinking — and Anthony Volpe sits right in the middle of it.

You can read all about what’s going on in Major League Baseball at SportsGrid.com.