Name: Kalshi and Polymarket: The New Giants of Prediction Markets
Uploaded: 2025-12-04T14:26:23-05:00
Duration: 5 min 9 s
Description: Kalshi and Polymarket, with valuations over $10 billion, are redefining prediction markets, winning big in sports and beyond, challenging traditional platforms.

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Kalshi and Polymarket, with valuations over $10 billion, are redefining prediction markets, winning big in sports and beyond, challenging traditional platforms.

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Kalshi and Polymarket: The New Giants of Prediction Markets

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Well, prediction platforms Calci and Polymarket have become the titans of an exploding new wave of prediction markets with valuations in the billions, partnerships with leagues like the NHL, and some of the biggest troll accounts on social media. So why have these platforms used unorthodox social media strategies to become such big business? And should sports betting platforms like FanDuel and DraftKings be worried about their growth? So let's dive into all of this. Let's bring in FOS editor in chief Dan Roberts. So before we get into some of the strategy. And there's a lot of them here. Let's talk a little bit about how these two have exploded so fast onto the scene right now. Yeah, well, a huge milestone moment, watershed moment, of course, was polymarket having that Trump would get reelected really before that was bubbling up anywhere. It was looked very likely to happen based on how people were betting on polymarket. Oh, don't call it betting. It's predicting, it's prediction markets, but polymarket really touted that as a win. Now that was in politics in the years since, both. Polymarketing Calci have really exploded in usage, awareness, uh, investment money raised. They just keep raising. Just today. Calci raised another $1 billion in funding, bringing its valuation to $11 billion. So both of these companies have $10 billion plus valuations. There are people using them, although of course polymarket technically isn't usable in the US. So how are people doing it? You just do it through VPN, but expected to relaunch very soon in the US. Calci is in the US. Both have been given the green light by the CFTC under the Trump administration. So shortest answer is it started in politics and that's still a huge part of their volume, but both have really pushed hard into sports and their success is pushing all these big dogs who are established in the betting world to say or actually launch prediction markets, you know, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics says it wants to launch one. Crypto.com launched one. Trump's own media company, TrueSocial, part of the Trump Media company portfolio is launching one or has launched one. Suddenly everyone wants in, but of course. They're not all gonna succeed, right? We can't support 30 different prediction markets. Well, so we'll get to all of that, which is really fascinating, but I want to talk quickly about the investors because I believe it's Calci that had a huge investment from ICE, who owns the New York Stockmarket. Thank you, thank you, thank you. What's sort of the genesis as to why big VCs like the New York Stock Exchange see with these platforms compared to the vandals and the draft games like where do they see the sort of the upswing into. Well, this really started in the crypto world. I mean, polymarket is the one that was a crypto native company and you can only place your bets in crypto. And so a lot of the investors in both are from the crypto space. Calci's big dog is A16Z Andreessen Horowitz, which has a huge crypto portfolio. Um, you know, both of them now Calci is about to start allowing crypto as the form of currency, so they're going more into crypto, whereas that was kind of polymarket space. So that's why. You see a lot of investors from like the web 3 space and when you look at the social media voice which we can get into, I liken it's a degen culture. It's it's a degen thing. It's not just crypto people, it's the terminally online. It's the same people who were pushing GameSto and the stock revolution during the pandemic. So there's a coalescing here of multiple spheres, right? It's the VCs who are pro web 3 crypto. They kind of went hard on all that stuff during the pandemic, AI, you know, those same investors. There's a lot of overlap in the Venn diagrams here. It's sports, it's betting, it's crypto, it's the terminally online, and it's, uh, the young, it's, it's young degens. OK, so you, before we get into some of the social media strategies and stuff like that, I believe Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both of these, yeah, which kind of seems like, huh? How can you be an advisor to the two main direct competitors? And then the other thing I think is interesting is the Biden administration had fought for sort of the legalization of these companies. for their entire time against it and fought against them from being, you know, available for people to use and basically they are now allowed to do this because the Trump administration decided to not continue to take up the government's previous case on them. That's exactly right. So under the Biden administration, the CFTC is the one that banned Calci from operating in the US, and then Calci challenged that one while it was still Biden, the Biden administration said we're going to appeal that ruling, you know, Calci's win. And then uh Trump gets elected and we know that Trump is pro crypto, pro-tech, you know, rah rah, all that. Look, just, just yesterday in the Times, a big profile of David Sachs, the VC turned crypto czar and AI czar. So very friendly with the White House. So the Trump administration CFTC said, um, OK, all good. We are not going to continue that appeal that the CFTC was going to do under Biden. We dropped the appeal. Calci is able to launch in the US again. Polymarket has been explicitly given the green light. They're about to launch in the US and they've been out of the. US for 2 years or more and part of this too is that um you know they're buying the argument prediction markets make and the argument is we are distinct from sports books. We're not sports betting. When you place a bet, don't call it a bet on whether you know the Pats are going to beat the Giants on polymarketerkshi, it's actually an events contract. It's like trading futures options, OK? So they liken it more to a financial instrument and say that we're more like a stock exchange than a sports book.

Kalshi and Polymarket: The New Giants of Prediction Markets

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