Top 5 Longshot Horses to Bet in the 2024 Preakness
Grant White
Host · Writer
Catching Freedom
Post Position: 3
Morning Line Odds: 6-1Catching Freedom's pedigree is second to none. Although he may be better suited for the Belmont, we can't dismiss his chances against a lackluster Preakness field.
Sired by Constitution, Tapit, and A.P. Indy are a few of the Triple Crown names on the upper half of his lineage. Likewise, Pioneer of the Nile and Empire Maker run through his dam's side.
Moreover, Catching Freedom has improved his speed figure in every race he's run, topping out with a 99 mark in this year's Kentucky Derby and cashing superfectas as the fourth-place finisher.
Don't be surprised if this is the trendy mid-range option bettors line up to back on Saturday. His Hall of Fame lineage and current form make Catching Freedom a horse worth including in any of your wagers.
Mugatu
Post Position: 1
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Mugatu enters the 2024 Preakness with an unfavorable post position and is tied for the longest odds on the board. Nevertheless, the Kentucky Derby also-eligible is peaking at the right time and has a solid pedigree supporting success with the added distance.
Mugatu is coming off his best finish against Grade 1 stakes. The colt finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes at the start of April, finishing behind Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone and also-rans Just a Touch and Epic Ride. But it was the second time in five races that Mugatu's speed figure cracked 93.
We also can't look past Mugatu's pedigree, particularly on his dam's side. His mare was Union Way, making Mugatu a second-generation colt from Union Rag's progeny. The 2012 Belmont Stakes winner shone in the mile-and-a-half race, playing into Mugatu's chances of competing at 1+3/16 mile Preakness.
Mugatu can save a lot of distance being tucked in on the rail, giving him every opportunity to break out late and upend exotics.
Seize The Gray
Post Position: 6
Morning Line Odds: 15-1Granted, most of it has come against inferior competition, but look at what Seize The Gray did early in 2024. The gray colt out of MyRacehorse stables has finished in the money in four of his past five, improving his speed figures time after time. We're betting that the upward trajectory continues in the Preakness.
Over the previous three races, Seize The Gray's speed figures have improved from 88 to 89 to a personal best 95 last time out in the Pat Day Mile. Granted, the Grade 2 stakes race didn't feature the best of this year's three-year-old class, but Seize The Gray has sharpened his teeth against the best of the best. He finished seventh in the Blue Grass Stakes last month and third in a competitive Jeff Ruby Steaks field.
Jamie Torres is riding the colt from an ideal post position, giving them every chance of surprising bettors at the finish line. Seize The Gray is worth including on the backend of most exotics.
Just Steel
Post Position: 7
Morning Line Odds: 15-1We were burned by Just Steel in the Run for the Roses just a couple of weeks ago, but we're back for more with the heavily-raced colt.
Don't be fooled by Just Steel's underwhelming showing at the Kentucky Derby. His 17th-place finish and 65-speed figure were significant departures from what we've come to expect from the bay colt. Six weeks earlier, Just Steel finished second at the Arkansas Derby, hitting triple digits with his speed figure for the second time in his career.
D. Wayne Lukas has an excellent track record of extracting maximum value from his horses. Given Just Steel's pedigree, including being sired by Triple Crown winner Justify, we expect all the pieces to come together at Pimlico Race Track. Don't be surprised if Just Steel catches the field off guard and crosses the line first.
Uncle Heavy
Post Position: 2
Morning Line Odds: 20-1Uncle Heavy, one of the lightest raced horses in the field, will have to shake off the cobwebs if he hopes to compete in this year's Preakness. Still, a gentle start to the season ensures that the three-year-old is ready to compete in Maryland.
Oddly enough, Uncle Heavy has saved his best performances for the slop. Two of his best speed figures have come under less-than-ideal conditions. He posted a 92-speed figure under muddy conditions at the 2024 Withers and an identical number at the end of December at 2023 Wait For It in Philadelphia. Coincidentally, Uncle Heavy won both of those races.
With rain in the forecast on Saturday, Uncle Heavy could be the muddy specialist's sharp bettor's eye.
Catching Freedom
Post Position: 3
Morning Line Odds: 6-1Catching Freedom's pedigree is second to none. Although he may be better suited for the Belmont, we can't dismiss his chances against a lackluster Preakness field.
Sired by Constitution, Tapit, and A.P. Indy are a few of the Triple Crown names on the upper half of his lineage. Likewise, Pioneer of the Nile and Empire Maker run through his dam's side.
Moreover, Catching Freedom has improved his speed figure in every race he's run, topping out with a 99 mark in this year's Kentucky Derby and cashing superfectas as the fourth-place finisher.
Don't be surprised if this is the trendy mid-range option bettors line up to back on Saturday. His Hall of Fame lineage and current form make Catching Freedom a horse worth including in any of your wagers.
Mugatu
Post Position: 1
Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Mugatu enters the 2024 Preakness with an unfavorable post position and is tied for the longest odds on the board. Nevertheless, the Kentucky Derby also-eligible is peaking at the right time and has a solid pedigree supporting success with the added distance.
Mugatu is coming off his best finish against Grade 1 stakes. The colt finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes at the start of April, finishing behind Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone and also-rans Just a Touch and Epic Ride. But it was the second time in five races that Mugatu's speed figure cracked 93.
We also can't look past Mugatu's pedigree, particularly on his dam's side. His mare was Union Way, making Mugatu a second-generation colt from Union Rag's progeny. The 2012 Belmont Stakes winner shone in the mile-and-a-half race, playing into Mugatu's chances of competing at 1+3/16 mile Preakness.
Mugatu can save a lot of distance being tucked in on the rail, giving him every opportunity to break out late and upend exotics.
