USMNT Notebook: Yellow cards force roster changes for 'dead rubber' match vs. Türkiye

IRVINE, Calif. – This is not a normal set of circumstances for the United States men’s national team in a FIFA World Cup group stage finale.

For just the third time in its history, the USMNT has already won its group. Heck, it’s just the first time the U.S. has won consecutive games in a World Cup group stage since 1930–there were only two group stage games then–and only the third time the men’s team has won two games in a single World Cup.

However, when the Americans take the pitch to close out Group D on Thursday at SoFi Stadium, they’ll play a rare “dead rubber” match, where the result doesn’t mean anything to the fate of the USMNT, already eliminated Türkiye or anyone else anywhere in the bracket.

Thanks to FIFA switching the first tiebreaker in the group standings for this tournament away from goal differential to head-to-head results, neither Australia or Paraguay can pass the United States, which beat both teams, and Türkiye cannot catch the Socceroos or La Albirroja for third place, since the Turks lost to both.

The only thing left to play for is personal pride.

For Türkiye, they’ll hope to salvage some sort of moral victory from an overwhelmingly disappointing tournament, where the Turks have taken more shots (62) without scoring a goal than any team in World Cup history.

For the United States, there is more history to be had, as the USMNT has never won three games in a World Cup, let alone sweep a three-game World Cup group stage.

“Going into this World Cup, we’ve spoken about obviously wanting to win,” USMNT defender Chris Richards said, “but we’ve also spoken about making history, and we look at every game and every training as an opportunity to continue to make history.”

But at what cost?

There’s simply no need to push for the United States, and with a Round of 32 date already secured–July 1 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara–there are other things to manage.

Four U.S. players are currently carrying yellow cards in the group stage–Richards, Antonee “Jedi” Robinson, Tyler Adams and Folarin Balogun. If any one of those four were to pick-up another yellow card on Thursday, they would be suspended from the first knockout game. Their card counts are reset after the group stage.

USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino confirmed in his pre-match press conference on Wednesday that those four players will not take the field against Türkiye.“It’s unnecessary to take a risk and to take another yellow card and not be available for the next stage,” Pochettino said. “An easy answer not to play with them from the beginning.”

Then there is the recently injured in Christian Pulisic–who deemed himself ready to go after being held out of full training and the win against Australia last week due to a calf injury.

There’s the idea of letting Pulisic heal even further and avoiding risk in a meaningless game for the standings. If he does not play, though, it would be 19 days between games for Pulisic, and he only played the first 45 minutes in the opener.

“I’m feeling good,” Pulisic said. “Obviously, I’ve joined with the team in the last few days. So, I’m feeling good, positive going into it, and hopefully, I’ll be able to play a part of it tomorrow.”

Pochettino said there is a chance Pulisic plays in a limited capacity, and that he and the staff would determine if he would start the game or play in the second half and for how long.

It’s all a narrow line to walk. How much does the USMNT weigh wanting to ride the goodwill and momentum generated to start this World Cup versus how much does the U.S. want to avoid risks to the roster?

“You want (momentum), for sure,” Pulisic said. “Going into the knockout rounds will definitely feel better with a win. That’s why we’re going to push forward, and it’s an amazing opportunity. We don’t necessarily need a win, but it’s a World Cup game, and we all want to give our best and do well.”

Players always want to play. 

For Pochettino, he also wants the team to win, and he wants to continue to instill confidence in all of his players. He also has a team with long-term prospects to manage, and it sounds like he’s doing exactly that.

“Our thinking is to win. We are qualified, but we want to win,” Pochettino said. “For sure, we are going to take the best starting XI that we believe that they are ready to play and be sure that we are going to compete… We want to win and we want to go to the next stage with three victories.”

Round-of-32 Scenarios

Looking ahead to the knockout rounds, there is a 99% likelihood of who the United States will face on July 1 in Santa Clara, but the window is ever so slightly open for that to change.

As it stands, the USMNT would face Bosnia-Herzegovina in the Round of 32.

Bosnia finished third in Group B, and with four points and a minus-1 goal differential, they have probably done enough to be one of the top eight third-place finishers from the 12 groups. The way the World Cup brackets were set up had the winner of Group D–the United States–taking on a third-place finisher from Groups B, E, F, I or J.

Sparing most of the details, FIFA has a list of combinations that determine where these third-place teams go into the knockout bracket, and in 329 of the 330 possible futures, the Group D winner would play Group B’s third place finisher.

However, this is where Doctor Strange holds up his one finger to Tony Stark, as that one possible combination that would send Bosnia away from a date with the U.S. is still in play going into Thursday.

The only way the United States does not play Bosnia in the Round of 32 is if the third-place teams from Groups A, C, D and F do not advance in the top eight, and the only way that happens is if 11 different results go in specific ways.

Those interested parties can track that HERE, but there are some results quite unlikely to happen.