UFC 301: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Preview & Best Bets

A UFC Flyweight title bout headlines UFC 301 as champion Alexandre “The Cannibal" Pantoja defends his belt against No. 10 ranked Steve “Astro Boy" Erceg.

• Date: Saturday, May 4, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – Farmasi Arena | TV: PPV

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Can Lionheart Survive Merciless?

No. 10 ranked light heavyweight Anthony “Lionheart" Smith holds the center of the cage against No. 15 Vitor “Merciless" Petrino. Smith is 1-3 over his last four fights, losing to Khalil Rountree Jr., Johnny Walker, and Magomed Ankalaev. Petrino is undefeated at 11-0, winning four straight in the UFC.

Smith is two inches taller, but Petrino has a 1.5-inch reach advantage. Both fighters have power, with Smith landing 0.47 more significant strikes per minute but absorbing 1.98 more. Petrino is active with takedowns, scoring 3.86 per 15 minutes, and Smith’s defense rate is suspect. Smith has traditionally been a durable fighter, but he’s started to wear the damage from those past bouts.

This seems to be an arrival fight for Petrino. He’s a massive favorite at -600, so to make Petrino’s odds a little more attractive, we’ll take him to win by KO/TKO or submission at -145.

Junior and the Dragon

No. 12 ranked bantamweight Jonathan “Dragon" Martinez faces the legend Jose “Junior" Aldo. Martinez has won six in a row, beating Zviad Lazishvili, Alejandro Perez, Vince Morales, Cub Swanson, Said Nurmagomedov, and Adrian Yanez. The former UFC champion, Aldo, is arguably the greatest featherweight ever. He lost his last time out against Merab Dvalishvili but had a three-fight win streak before that.

Martinez is an inch taller, but they have an identical reach. Dragon is known for his leg kicks, but Aldo popularized the technique at the lower weight classes. Martinez lands 1.07 more significant strikes per minute. Everything else is a wash, except Aldo has an elevated takedown defense rate and is seven years older.

I’ll be cheering for Aldo on Saturday, but I think this is a passing of the torch fight for Martinez. Take Martinez to win at -162.

Check out SportsGrid’s exclusive interview with former UFC light heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell

UFC Flyweight Championship Main Event

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg

• Odds to Win: Pantoja -142 | Erceg +112
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -270 | Submission +950 | Decision +290
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes +300 | No -430

UFC Flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defends his title against Steve Erceg. Pantoja has won five straight, winning and defending his title against Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval, his last two times out. Erceg has won 11 consecutive fights, three in the UFC.

Erceg is three inches taller and has a one-inch reach advantage. Both fighters have similar one-punch power and significant strike output. Pantoja has slightly better takedown statistics, but most of the grappling is even. Pantoja has a history of gassing out, so Erceg could push the pace over a fight-round fight.

Pantoja is just too big a step for Erceg to take at this point in his career. Take Pantoja to win at -192.

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg Betting Card

• Petrino Double Chance KO/TKO or Submission (-145)
• Martinez to win (-162)
• Pantoja to win (-192)

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