UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales | UFC Picks Today, Best Bets
Tyler Mason
Host · Writer
A UFC welterweight bout headlines UFC Fight Night 256 as No. 8-ranked Gilbert Burns faces No. 12-ranked Michael Morales.
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Location: Enterprise, Nevada, United States
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Date: May 17, 2025
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
UFC Fight Night Preview: Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos
Unranked lightweights Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos will go toe-to-toe this weekend. Yusuff has lost two in a row, dropping fights to Edson Barboza and Diego Lopes. Santos has won three straight, two in the UFC.
Yusuff is two inches taller, but Santos has a one-inch reach advantage. Both fighters have some power, but it’s not overwhelming. Yusuff is the more active striker, landing 1.52 more significant strikes and absorbing 2.14 more. Yusuff has better grappling because Santos lacks takedown statistics, outside of a terrible 40 percent takedown defense rate.
Yusuff might be too much of a step up in competition for the younger Santos. This fight could be a pick ’em, but the plus-money on Yusuff gives him slight value.
💰 Best Bet: Yusuff to win +110
UFC Fight Night Preview: Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato
Unranked light heavyweights Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato will look to get back in the winner’s circle. Craig has lost three straight and five of his last six fights. Bellato fought to a draw in his previous match, but had a five-fight win streak going before that.
Both men are 6’3", but Bellato has a 1.5-reach advantage. Bellato will have the power edge, knocking out three of his last five opponents. He also lands at a much higher rate, averaging 6.28 significant strikes per minute. However, he also absorbs 3.28 more. Craig is the more active wrestler, getting 0.46 more takedowns per 15 minutes. His considerable advantage will be his submission game, which averages 1.42 per 15 minutes.
At -520, Bellato is a massive favorite. There is a"Hail Mary" factor with Craig, but Bellato is a terrible matchup for him. Bellato’s 100 percent takedown rate and power will end Craig in this fight.
💰 Best Bet: Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO -145
UFC Fight Night Preview: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales
- Odds to Win: Burns +480 | Morales -800
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -165 | Submission +850 | Decision +170
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +178 | No -235
The main event features a top-15 match between Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales. Burns has lost three straight, but one was against the former champion and one was against the current champion. Morales is undefeated at 17-0, finishing Neil Magny in the first round last time out.
Morales is two inches taller and has a massive eight-inch reach advantage. Morales will have the power edge, dropping opponents 0.92 per 15 minutes. He’s also the more active striker, landing 2.25 more and absorbing 0.15 fewer significant strikes per minute. The grappling edge will be in Burns’s favor. He lands 0.96 more takedowns and 0.46 submissions per 15 minutes.
The 25-year-old Morales should be the favorite, but at -800, there is no value. Burns to win by submission at +1200 holds substantial value in this matchup.
💰 Best Bet: Burns by submission +1200
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