2024 MLB Futures: Top Best Bet Updates We’re Tracking

Milwaukee Brewers NL Central Winner (+800)

Hesitant to celebrate just yet, but this one feels good. The decision to avoid the win total was based on the possibility of the team either hitting the high-end projection or bottoming out and selling. Right now, they are hitting that high-end projection, and it's exciting to watch.

Currently at 39-28, they have a 6.5 game lead in the division, with no other teams holding a record over .500. Their odds to win the division are -160.

The team has maintained a top-ten offense all year, and despite a mediocre rotation, they excel at winning regular-season games.

Given the competition, they are likely to win the division. While it’s still uncertain, they are the best team, and every projection model shows them comfortably winning it. 

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Tampa Bay Rays Over 83.5 Wins (-105)

The win total is still attainable, but the playoffs are beginning to slip away. The Rays have been heavily impacted by injuries, yet the team's performance has still fallen short of expectations. Currently holding a 31-34 record, projection systems remain optimistic about their potential moving forward. Depending on the system, projections estimate between 80-85 wins, with the most common projection being 83-79. Considering these projections and the team's improving health, the odds of surpassing this win total are approximately 50/50.

Cleveland Guardians Over 78 Wins (-110)

The Guardians are playing excellent baseball and hold a five-game lead over the Royals, making it unlikely they will sell at the deadline. Typically not a team that buys, it is projected that the current iteration of the Guardians will remain unchanged by season's end.

With a 42-22 record and a run differential of +90, the Guardians have performed well against strong competition, going 15-8 against teams over .500 this season. Arguably a top-five team this season, they are projected to win between 89-93 games. To fall short of this win total, they would need to go 36-62 for the rest of the season, which seems improbable.

Houston Astros Over 91.5 Wins (-110)

The Astros are 30-36, an unexpected outcome. The back end of the bullpen was anticipated to be an all-time trio, but it hasn't lived up to expectations. The lineup, thought to be the deepest in baseball, has fallen short, and the rotation, expected to be one of the best in the American League, is not even close.

Projections estimate the Astros will win between 82 and 85 games. While the win total isn't out of reach, achieving it seems unlikely. The Astros would need to go 62-34 the rest of the way to finish with 92 wins, a .645 winning percentage pace, which is behind what the Guardians are achieving. Although the talent to finish with 92 wins is present, they've been six games under .500 all year. The next month will be crucial in determining whether they sell off valuable pieces at the deadline.

CJ Abrams Over 37.5 Stolen Bases (-110)

According to Twitter trolls, CJ Abrams has transformed into Barry Bonds this year without stealing a base. Daily tags in CJ Abrams' content suggest he still needs to attempt a stolen base. While his power has increased, he has stolen ten bases. It was previously noted that Abrams might start slow, as this has been a trend in his career.

Abrams' second half will be must-watch television. He barely played in 2022, but in the second half, he stole six of his seven total bases. Last season, he stole 14 bases in the first half and then 33 in the second half. As long as he finishes with 14 in the first half, which he still has time to do, things are on track. Projection systems for stolen bases are rarely accurate, with some predicting over 40 and others in the low 30s. As long as he stays healthy, exceeding this seems likely.

One concern is that he's been caught five times already, compared to just four times all of last season. As the Nationals fall further from contention, Abrams is expected to run more frequently. Confidence remains high in the over.

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Oakland A’s Over 57 Wins (-110)

How about those A's! Despite losing seven of their last ten games, they hold a 26-41 record. Are they good? Not really. Are they likely to surpass the lowest win total ever? It's almost certain.

Projection systems have the A's winning between 67 and 71 games. To fall under this, they would need to go 30-65 for the rest of the season. Selling at the deadline seems inevitable, but we still have great confidence. To fall short, the A's would need a .315 winning percentage, nearly 40 points worse than the Rockies or Marlins. Even if they do sell, a monumental collapse isn't expected by any projection system.

The team is not just on pace; they're well ahead. At the low end, there's a ten-game buffer.

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Michael Harris Over 154.5 Hits (-120)

Hits projection models are much more accurate than stolen base projections. Though not perfect, they are certainly worth considering. Interestingly, the average forecast is 154.5 hits after aggregating all seven models, and the pace aligns exactly with this line. Vegas truly has some excellent linemakers.

Optimism is warranted for several reasons. Similar to Abrams, Michael Harris has been a strong second-half player. In 2022, he had 49 hits in the first half and 74 in the second. In 2023, he had 59 hits in the first half and 89 in the second. Currently, with 61 hits and a .248 batting average, he is on pace to meet this projection.

Beyond the second-half trend, his current numbers suggest positive regression. His .274 expected batting average (xBA) and .317 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) compared to a .285 wOBA indicate some bad luck. He is still hitting the ball hard, suggesting a turnaround is likely. Barring injury, confidence remains high that he will exceed the projection.

Aaron Judge MLB Home Run Leader (+400)

Celebrating after one of the best months of the 21st century is easy. With 25 home runs, Aaron Judge has set the pace. Projections indicate he will lead MLB by more than 10 home runs this year.

Despite his success, he is underperforming his advanced metrics. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) is .756, while his actual slugging percentage is .703. His wOBA is .472, with an xwOBA of .483. With a 63.1% hard-hit rate, even higher than his 2022 season when he hit 62 home runs, he has a realistic shot at reaching 60 home runs if he remains healthy.

Though there is great confidence in his performance, his lengthy injury history prevents a full guarantee. A six-unit win is projected, but it's not certain. Currently, he is -175 to lead Major League Baseball in home runs. 

Zac Gallen Under 194.5 Strikeouts (-115)

Before Zac Gallen got injured, projection systems estimated he would finish with an average of 189 strikeouts. He hasn’t pitched since May 30th and isn't close to returning yet. The latest report indicates he threw a flat-ground session on Saturday and hasn't started throwing off a mound. It is estimated that he will return in 3-4 weeks.

Currently, Gallen is projected to have 160 strikeouts. He has 60 strikeouts this season in 57.2 innings, averaging 9.38 K/9. At this pace, he would need to pitch about 125 more innings, which equates to approximately 21 starts at six innings per start. By the time he returns, he may run out of time to reach the original projection. This also assumes he performs at his career averages and remains injury-free for the rest of the year. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto NL ROY (+175)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is currently third in the NL Rookie of the Year odds at +350. His odds have doubled since the preseason, but he remains a strong contender in the race. He is also +2000 to win the CY Young, tied for the eighth-best odds. Recently, he delivered his best start of the year with a seven-inning shutout against the Yankees at Yankee Stadium.

This season, Yamamoto has been outstanding, posting a 3.00 ERA with a 28.3% strikeout rate and a 5.5% walk rate. His underlying metrics indicate no negative regression, and as he becomes more comfortable stateside, continued improvement is expected. Following his best start of the year, his ERA for June is now 0.69.

Arizona Diamondbacks Over 83.5 Wins (-115)

Depending on the projection system, the high end for Arizona is 83 wins and the low end is 78 wins. With a current record of 31-35, they would need to go 53-43 for the rest of the season to reach 84 wins.

This situation looks concerning. On the one hand, Gallen's return and the expectation that multiple players will improve performance. However, the team ranks 23rd in starter ERA and 26th in bullpen ERA. Despite having a good offense, with the 12th-best OPS, they struggle to hold leads.

Uncertainty remains about their approach at the trade deadline. After reaching the World Series, can they justify selling? Will they be buyers? It’s unclear, and even the Diamondbacks might not know their course of action yet.

Milwaukee Brewers NL Central Winner (+800)

Hesitant to celebrate just yet, but this one feels good. The decision to avoid the win total was based on the possibility of the team either hitting the high-end projection or bottoming out and selling. Right now, they are hitting that high-end projection, and it's exciting to watch.

Currently at 39-28, they have a 6.5 game lead in the division, with no other teams holding a record over .500. Their odds to win the division are -160.

The team has maintained a top-ten offense all year, and despite a mediocre rotation, they excel at winning regular-season games.

Given the competition, they are likely to win the division. While it’s still uncertain, they are the best team, and every projection model shows them comfortably winning it. 

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