2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook for the San Diego Padres
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
2025 MLB Season: San Diego Padres – A Strong Core, But Still Missing That Final Push
The Padres enter the 2025 MLB season with a sense of continuity. After a relatively quiet offseason in terms of major acquisitions, it feels like the Padres are largely “running it back," hoping that the pieces they have in place can finally push them over the hump and into contention with the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers. While they remain competitive, questions remain about the long-term trajectory of this team. Can they make the adjustments necessary to finally get past their rivals in the division? Let’s take a closer look at their lineup, pitching staff, and what it means for fantasy owners in 2025.
Lineup: Star Power with Question Marks
The Padres are built around a group of talented players, but the biggest concern for fantasy managers is consistency. Fernando Tatis Jr. remains the centerpiece of the offense, but his injury history and unpredictable performance make him a risky proposition. Tatis can absolutely deliver a 30-100-30 season, but there’s just as much risk that he’ll fall short of those lofty expectations. Still, his upside makes him a top-10 outfielder in fantasy drafts, but don’t expect him to carry your team like a true first-round pick, especially given his injury concerns.
Manny Machado is a steady force in the lineup, but the days of him being an elite fantasy asset might be behind him. Machado is consistent—he’ll give you 25+ home runs and 100+ RBIs—but the excitement around drafting him has waned. As a third baseman, he’s a solid but unspectacular pick. There are certainly better options out there, like Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Guardians and Rafael Devers of the Boston Red Sox, but Machado should still provide steady value if you’re in need of a reliable power bat.
Xander Bogaerts is another player worth monitoring. After a disappointing 2024 campaign, he hasn’t yet lived up to the massive contract the Padres gave him. Can he rebound in 2025? The talent is undoubtedly there, and a bounce-back season would not be a surprise, but it’s hard to trust him as a top-3 shortstop just yet. Still, if you’re drafting, taking a chance on Bogaerts in the middle rounds could be a good bet, but be cautious with your expectations.
The rest of the Padres’ lineup is more or less interchangeable, with Luis Arráez providing a steady batting average but limited fantasy upside. Connor Joe, Jason Heyward, and Elias Díaz aren’t going to win you any leagues, and Jackson Merrill is still waiting for his big breakout. The back end of the lineup is full of platoon players and veterans who might not provide much fantasy value.
Betting Angle: Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Home Runs (Over/Under 30.5)
If you believe in Tatis’ ability to stay healthy and perform at a high level, betting the Over on 30.5 home runs seems appealing. He has 40-homer upside when healthy, so if he stays on the field for most of the season, this number should be achievable.
Pitching Staff: Depth and Stability, But Not Without Risks
The Padres’ pitching staff is one of their stronger points heading into 2025, with Yu Darvish, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Nick Pivetta making up a solid top four. Darvish remains a reliable option at the front of the rotation, but his age and workload are concerns. He’s no longer the ace he once was, and the Padres will have to manage his innings carefully. Still, he’s a reliable fantasy arm, especially if you’re looking for a steady 3rd or 4th starter.
King is another intriguing fantasy option. Known for his solid performance in 2024, the Padres could benefit greatly if King takes a step forward in 2025. If he can keep up his form, he’ll be an excellent late-round target, but the looming free agency decision means King could be traded at some point during the season. If he stays in San Diego, though, he’s a strong SP3/4 option, particularly if the Padres keep him as a long-term fixture.
Pivetta rounds out the rotation and offers a steady, if unspectacular, option. He doesn’t have the upside of Snell or Darvish, but he can eat innings and provide decent ratios. If you’re looking for a 4th or 5th starter, Pivetta is a solid pick, but don’t expect him to carry your fantasy team.
The real question is Cease, who has been mentioned in trade rumors. If the Padres were to add him to their rotation, it would be a huge boon for their pitching depth, but for now, his future in San Diego is uncertain. If he stays, he could push the Padres into a top-tier rotation, and he’s definitely someone to monitor as the season progresses.
Betting Angle: Blake Snell Total Strikeouts (Over/Under 225.5)
After his impressive Cy Young season, Snell‘s strikeout potential is high. Betting the Over on 225.5 strikeouts seems worth considering, especially if he continues his trend of being a high-strikeout pitcher, but be aware of his potential for inconsistency.
Ownership and Front Office Dynamics: Could a Midseason Move Shake Things Up?
The Padres have the talent to compete with the Dodgers and the rest of the NL West, but with the ownership situation still unresolved following the death of Peter Seidler, the organization is left in a state of flux. The Padres made a huge investment in Machado and Bogaerts, but with an already-high payroll, will they be able to make any midseason moves to bolster their roster?
If they want to compete for the division title, they’ll likely need to make a move or two. Whether it’s adding an arm to the bullpen or bolstering their lineup, the Padres need to stay aggressive. However, if ownership issues linger, they might not have the flexibility to do so. Fantasy managers should keep an eye on the front office’s activity throughout the season, as any significant trade could shift the fantasy value of several key players.
Conclusion: A Team That Could Be on the Verge, but Has Limitations
The Padres remain a strong team, especially from a fantasy perspective. Tatis Jr. and Machado remain the foundation of the offense, and with a deep pitching staff anchored by Darvish, Snell, and King, they have the potential to compete with anyone in the NL West. However, there are still significant question marks, particularly around Tatis’ health, Bogaerts’ bounce-back potential, and the overall strength of the Padres’ lineup.
As for fantasy, Tatis Jr. is a risky but rewarding pick, and Machado offers solid, if unspectacular, production. Snell and Darvish are solid starting options, but there’s little room for error with this rotation. If the Padres can make the right moves during the season and stay healthy, they’ll be a dangerous team come playoff time.
Betting Angle: Padres to Make the Playoffs (Yes/No)
Given the roster talent and their competition in the NL West, betting on the Padres to make the playoffs could be a smart move. While they may not be able to surpass the Dodgers, they are strong contenders for a wild card spot.
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