5 Most Overrated Teams in Major League Baseball Right Now
Paul Connor
Host · Writer
The standings tell one story in late September. The math tells another.
Here are the five most overrated teams in MLB right now, and why the numbers say buyer beware.
1. Cleveland Guardians
Record: 86-72 (1st in AL Central)
Cleveland is the rare division leader with a negative run differential (-2) and an expected record of 79-79, seven games worse than their actual mark. That gap, plus a 24-20 record in one-run games, points to sequencing luck more than bankable quality. Their September surge (18-5) makes for a great story, but the underlying profile screams fragile favorite.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 90-68 (T1 in AL East)
A 1–6 skid has dropped the Jays into a tie with the Yankees atop the AL East. Maybe we shouldn’t be too surprised. Toronto’s modest +57 run differential and expected record of 85–73 suggest they’ve been playing a bit over their heads, and their 27–20 mark in one-run games shows just how often they’ve had to scrape by. Meanwhile, the Yankees (+152 RD) and Red Sox (+114 RD) sport far superior run differentials, hinting that Toronto’s grip on the division has been more about timing than true dominance.
3. Seattle Mariners
Record: 89-69 (1st in AL West)
The Mariners have clinched the AL West and caught fire, ripping off 16 wins in their last 17 games. But the numbers suggest they’ve been more opportunistic than dominant. Seattle is 31–21 in one-run games with an expected record of 87–71. A lockdown bullpen and clutch hitting have carried them, but this isn’t quite a true juggernaut.
4. Detroit Tigers
Record: 85-73 (2nd in AL Central, 3rd in AL Wild Card)
Baseball fans are watching one of the most dramatic collapses in recent memory. Detroit’s ten-game cushion in the AL Central has vanished in less than a month. The Tigers have dropped eight straight and 11 of their last 12, five of those losses coming at the hands of the Guardians, who own the tiebreaker. To make matters worse, Detroit now holds just a one-game lead over the Astros for the final Wild Card spot, putting them in real danger of missing the postseason entirely, an outcome that would have seemed unthinkable only weeks ago.
5. Miami Marlins
Record: 77-81 (3rd in NL East)
A late-season surge has the Marlins still in the playoff race, but barely. Miami is 77-81, four games back in the NL wild-card scrum, with a grim -91 run differential and expected record of 69-89. The fact they’re even in the hunt feels like a minor miracle.
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