7 Best Long-Term MLB Contracts for Hitters Since 2010: Value in Harper, Machado, Beltre
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Marcus Semien
Contract: 7 years/$175 million with Texas Rangers in 2021
Year 1: .733 OPS/4.2 fWAR
Year 2: .826 OPS/6.1 fWAR
Year 3: In Progress
Like teammate, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien signed with Texas in 2021 and immediately started paying dividends. His performance on the field has been nothing short of outstanding, highlighted by his selection as an All-Star and to the All-MLB First Team last year, underscoring his pivotal role in the team's success. In 2023, Semien further cemented his status as one of the league's premier talents by winning his second career Silver Slugger award. He was also key, helping Texas win its first World Series last year.
Free Agent Hitters
The quest to snag a big-name free agent who could turn the tides for your beloved team is an annual occurrence. It's a tempting thought: "Let's grab that power-hitting third baseman and top-tier pitcher—budget be damned!" But the reality is, these high-stakes contracts are a gamble.
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Baseball's unique structure often means players don't hit free agency until their 30s, setting teams up for a risky bet on performance during a player's decline. Despite the allure of a star's past achievements, not all signings live up to expectations. This analysis delves into every significant free agent hitter agreement from 2010 through the onset of the 2022 season, examining which deals have actually paid off.
With a focus on contracts of five years or more, we categorize them into hits, misses, and those still up for debate. It's worth noting that injuries have played a role in our evaluations, and the shortened 2020 season has affected some statistical analyses. Among the 32 long-term contracts reviewed, ranging from $60 million to $330 million, only a handful have been deemed successful so far, with many still in progress. This exploration aims to highlight the signings that have truly been worth the investment, showcasing the players who have delivered on their promise, at least in the early stages of their deals, for many. The top of our list starts with a brand new Hall of Famer.
Adrian Beltre
Contract: 6 years/$96 million with Texas Rangers in 2010.
Year 1: .892 OPS/5.5 fWAR
Year 2: .921 OPS/6.3 fWAR
Year 3: .880 OPS/4.9 fWAR
Year 4: .879 OPS/5.9 fWAR
Year 5: .788 OPS/4.3 fWAR
Year 6: .879 OPS/5.2 fWAR
No matter how much acclaim we bestow upon Adrian Beltre, it will always fall short. A remarkable athlete who continued to excel well into his career. Joining the Rangers at 32, Beltre secured three All-Star nods in Texas and received three Gold Gloves throughout the duration of that contract.
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J.D. Martinez
Contract: 5 years/$110 million with Boston Red Sox in 2017
Year 1: 1.031 OPS/5.9 fWAR
Year 2: .939 OPS/3.9 fWAR
Year 3: .680 OPS/-0.7 fWAR
Year 4: .867 OPS/2.7 fWAR
Year 5: .790 OPS/1.4 fWAR
JD Martinez experienced a slight dip in his fWAR rating due to his limited and less effective defensive play. However, his offensive performance remained impressive. During his contract period, he achieved the status of a four-time All-Star, in addition to clinching both a Silver Slugger award and a World Series title in 2018.
Bryce Harper
Contract: 13 years/$330 million with Philadelphia Phillies in 2018
Year 1: .882 OPS/3.9 fWAR
Year 2: .962 OPS/1.9 fWAR
Year 3: 1.044 OPS/6.7 fWAR
Year 4: .900 OPS/3.5 fWAR
Year 5: .790 OPS/1.4 fWAR
Year 6: In Progress
Bryce Harper's signing with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2018 has proven to be a significant long-term asset for the team. Harper's performance has been nothing short of spectacular, underscoring the value he brings to the Phillies. As a two-time All-Star for Philadelphia, his contributions have been pivotal. His two Silver Slugger awards highlight his offensive prowess, while his accolade as the 2021 National League MVP speaks volumes of his overall impact on the game.
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In 2022, Harper's excellence continued, earning him the NLCS MVP as he led the Phillies to great heights. Under his influence, the Phillies boast the best record in baseball this season, solidifying Harper's status as a cornerstone of the franchise's success. His presence in the lineup not only brings star power but also a consistent level of high performance that fuels the team's ambitions.
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Manny Machado
Contract: 10 years/$300 million with San Diego Padres in 2018
Year 1: .796 OPS/2.5 fWAR
Year 2: .950 OPS/2.7 fWAR
Year 3: .836 OPS/4.5 fWAR
Year 4: .898 OPS/7.2 fWAR
Year 5: .782 OPS/3.5 fWAR
Year 6: In Progress
In 2018, the San Diego Padres made a strategic move by signing Manny Machado, a decision that continues to pay dividends. Machado, a powerhouse at third base, has proven himself both offensively and defensively. With the Padres, he's been selected as an All-Star three times, showcasing his exceptional talent and contribution to the team. His prowess at the plate is further highlighted by winning the Silver Slugger award in 2020, underscoring his offensive capabilities. Defensively, Machado has been solid at third base, providing stability and reliability. His all-around performance and leadership qualities make him a cornerstone of the Padres' roster, validating his long-term signing as a shrewd investment for the team.
Freddie Freeman
Contract: 6 years/$162 million with LA Dodgers in 2021
Year 1: .918 OPS/6.8 fWAR
Year 2: .976 OPS/7.8 fWAR
Year 3: In Progress
Freddie Freeman's signing with the LA Dodgers in 2021 for a 6-year, $162 million contract has proven to be a masterstroke. In his first two seasons, he's demonstrated exceptional performance and consistency. In the 2022 season, Freeman posted a .918 OPS with a 6.8 fWAR, showcasing his offensive prowess and value to the team. He elevated his game even further in the 2023 season, achieving a .976 OPS and a 7.8 fWAR, underscoring his critical role in the Dodgers' success.
His accolades, including being named an All-Star in both seasons and earning a spot on the All-MLB first team in 2023, affirm his elite status. Currently, with a .400 OBP, Freeman is on track for another stellar year, solidifying his position as a savvy long-term investment for the Dodgers.
Corey Seager
Contract: 10 years/$325 million with Texas Rangers in 2021
Year 1: .772 OPS/4.2 fWAR
Year 2: 1.013 OPS/6.1 fWAR
Year 3: In Progress
Corey Seager has proven to be an outstanding long-term free agent signing for the Texas Rangers since his acquisition in 2021. His performance has been nothing short of spectacular, earning All-Star selections in both of his seasons with the team. Seager's contributions were pivotal in leading the Rangers to their first-ever World Series title, a historic achievement that earned him the World Series MVP award last year.
His excellence on the field has not gone unnoticed, as he was second only to Shohei Ohtani in the AL MVP voting in 2023, underscoring his immense value and impact. Seager's consistent excellence and key role in the Rangers’ success underline his significance as a long-term asset for the team.
Marcus Semien
Contract: 7 years/$175 million with Texas Rangers in 2021
Year 1: .733 OPS/4.2 fWAR
Year 2: .826 OPS/6.1 fWAR
Year 3: In Progress
Like teammate, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien signed with Texas in 2021 and immediately started paying dividends. His performance on the field has been nothing short of outstanding, highlighted by his selection as an All-Star and to the All-MLB First Team last year, underscoring his pivotal role in the team's success. In 2023, Semien further cemented his status as one of the league's premier talents by winning his second career Silver Slugger award. He was also key, helping Texas win its first World Series last year.
Free Agent Hitters
The quest to snag a big-name free agent who could turn the tides for your beloved team is an annual occurrence. It's a tempting thought: "Let's grab that power-hitting third baseman and top-tier pitcher—budget be damned!" But the reality is, these high-stakes contracts are a gamble.
Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.
Baseball's unique structure often means players don't hit free agency until their 30s, setting teams up for a risky bet on performance during a player's decline. Despite the allure of a star's past achievements, not all signings live up to expectations. This analysis delves into every significant free agent hitter agreement from 2010 through the onset of the 2022 season, examining which deals have actually paid off.
With a focus on contracts of five years or more, we categorize them into hits, misses, and those still up for debate. It's worth noting that injuries have played a role in our evaluations, and the shortened 2020 season has affected some statistical analyses. Among the 32 long-term contracts reviewed, ranging from $60 million to $330 million, only a handful have been deemed successful so far, with many still in progress. This exploration aims to highlight the signings that have truly been worth the investment, showcasing the players who have delivered on their promise, at least in the early stages of their deals, for many. The top of our list starts with a brand new Hall of Famer.
