MLB · 1 year ago

Analyzing the Toughest September Schedule for NL Wild Card Contenders

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Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have emerged as one of the most formidable teams in baseball since the All-Star break. Post-break, they lead Major League Baseball in several key offensive metrics including wRC+ (135), OPS (.857), batting average (.283), and wOBA (.366). They also top the charts with 73 home runs and 275 runs scored, which is 53 more than any other team during this period.

As July began, the Diamondbacks were underperforming with a record two games below .500 and three games away from a playoff spot. However, they have since surged to a 37-18 record, lifting them to 17 games above .500.

Contributions from key players, previously acknowledged as MVP contenders and Rookie of the Year, have been pivotal to the Diamondbacks' rise. Their impressive offensive output is reflected in a combined fWAR of 13.1 since the break, the highest in the league, complemented by a pitching staff that ranks fourth in both fWAR (4.0) and FIP (3.69).

Having proven their potential last year, the Diamondbacks are gaining momentum at a crucial time. Their performance will be crucial as they face a challenging September schedule. Only 10 of their remaining 23 games are against teams with losing records, including five against their division rivals, the San Francisco Giants. They also face a tough series against the first-place Milwaukee Brewers and the division-leading Astros, culminating in a critical home series against the San Diego Padres, who are narrowly ahead in the Wild Card standings.

With much baseball still to be played, the race for the top Wild Card spot could hinge on this final series in Arizona, marking a strenuous but potentially rewarding path to the postseason.

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San Diego Padres
Since the All-Star break, the only team outperforming the Arizona Diamondbacks has been the San Diego Padres, who boast the best record in baseball's second half at 29-12. They have emerged as one of the most balanced teams recently, positioning themselves as potentially the most formidable Wild Card contender with their continued strong performance.

San Diego's lineup has been notably potent, recording the third-best OPS (.777) and wRC+ (120) in the league, coupled with the lowest strikeout rate (16%) and the second-highest batting average (.273). But it's not just their batting prowess fueling victories; their pitching staff has also excelled, achieving the second-highest fWAR (7.0) since the break.

Both their starters and relievers have contributed significantly, with the bullpen boasting the fifth-best ERA (3.06) and the best FIP (2.74) in MLB. The starting rotation has improved markedly from a 4.16 ERA and a 3.97 FIP in the first half to a 3.92 ERA and a 3.75 FIP in the second half.

This well-rounded team is gearing up for a significant postseason impact. Over the next two weeks, the Padres face a series of winnable games, crucial for building a standings lead before a challenging end to September. Their season concludes with a six-game road trip, featuring a visit to the first-place Dodgers followed by a critical three-game series at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks.

With a relatively favorable September schedule compared to the Diamondbacks, the Padres are well-positioned to secure their lead before their season-ending showdown, setting the stage for a thrilling conclusion to their Wild Card race.
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Atlanta Braves
This season has been challenging for the Atlanta Braves, with significant injuries impacting their lineup, including key players sustaining a torn ACL and a fractured hand. Despite these setbacks and a regression in offensive output, featuring an OPS of .719 and a wRC+ of 98, the Braves are still in contention for a Wild Card spot as the regular season winds down.

Atlanta's pitching has been a crucial factor in keeping them competitive. The team leads MLB in fWAR (20.2) this season, boasting the highest K/9 rate at 9.57, the second-best team ERA at 3.59, and the leading FIP at 3.50. The rotation, featuring a pitcher in contention for the National League Cy Young award, has excelled, especially post-All-Star break, leading all of baseball in K-BB% with a significant improvement.

While the offense has underperformed, the potential for a late-season resurgence exists, especially with injured players possibly returning for a deep postseason push. The Braves' schedule could also play in their favor, being considered the easiest among NL Wild Card contenders. They have 24 games left, with only 10 against teams above .500—all of which will be at home. Moreover, their road games are few and only against teams out of playoff contention.

Despite the adversities faced, the Braves have a real opportunity to advance if their offense slightly improves, positioning them as a potentially formidable team in the postseason.
New York Mets
The New York Mets have dramatically improved their performance after a sluggish start to the season. Following a disappointing 9-19 record in May, they've rallied to a 51-31 record since June 1st, marking the third-best record in baseball during this period.

Now 11 games above .500, the Mets are riding the momentum of a six-game winning streak, the longest active streak in MLB, though they still trail Atlanta by just a half-game and remain just outside playoff positioning.

Their offense has been robust and consistent, ranking seventh in wRC+ (110) with an OPS of .740. The team excels in hard-hit rate (40.9%) and barrel rate (9.0%), while also ranking highly in slugging percentage (.420) and isolated power (.171).

However, it's the remarkable improvement in pitching post-All-Star break that has catalyzed their rise in the National League standings. The team's staff ERA has improved from 22nd in the league (4.23) to sixth (3.59), and their FIP has improved from 23rd (4.30) to 4.03. This turnaround is particularly notable in their bullpen, which saw nearly a full run drop in ERA, and their starting rotation, which advanced from lower-tier ERA and FIP ratings to some of the best since mid-July.

Key contributions from their rotation include stellar performances by certain pitchers, one of whom boasts a 2.47 ERA across recent starts, and another significant offseason acquisition who has maintained a 3.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.12 over 27 starts.

Looking ahead, the Mets face a challenging schedule in September, with only nine of their remaining 23 games against teams below .500. Their final stretch is particularly daunting, including a four-game home series against the first-place Phillies and a six-game road trip, culminating in series against top teams in Atlanta and at Milwaukee.

Despite being a close contender for a playoff spot, the Mets' playoff odds stand at 37.2%, significantly lower than Atlanta's 73.7%. Their performance in the upcoming weeks will be crucial as they aim to secure a postseason berth in a tightly contested race.

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Chicago Cubs
It's been a tumultuous season for the Chicago Cubs, who face the largest obstacle among NL Wild Card contenders in their quest for a postseason berth, currently standing 4.5 games away from a playoff spot.

The team has struggled offensively, recording a wRC+ of 100 and an OPS+ of 98. Despite improving to a .740 OPS since the All-Star break from a prior .695 OPS, the lineup has still fallen short of expectations for the year.

However, the Cubs showed significant improvement in August, posting an 18-8 record with the fourth-best wRC+ (120), third-best wOBA (.340), and second-best OPS (.792) in the majors. They will need to maintain this offensive momentum to ascend in the National League standings.

A pivotal factor in the Cubs' recent success has been their bullpen's dramatic improvement, shifting from a 4.01 ERA and a 4.04 FIP before the break to a 3.34 ERA and the fifth-best FIP (3.47) since mid-July.

While not dominating in any specific area, if the Cubs' starting rotation continues to perform reliably and the bullpen sustains its recent efficacy, the team has the potential to impact the playoff race in September. With a schedule that features many winnable games, especially at Wrigley Field, and only two series against teams over .500 after an upcoming weekend series against the Yankees, the Cubs are positioned to challenge the teams ahead of them in the Wild Card standings.

The Cubs have a golden opportunity to leverage their favorable schedule against mostly non-playoff teams to cement their postseason credentials. Despite FanGraphs giving them a mere 1.8% chance of making the playoffs, the Cubs' path to a strong season finish is clear, provided they capitalize on their matchups against lesser opponents.
The Verdict
It's shaping up to be a tough stretch for all involved, but the New York Mets face the steepest challenge in September among the NL Wild Card contenders. They are not only on the fringes of the playoff picture but also have the highest number of away games left compared to their rivals.

Moreover, the Mets are up against opponents with a combined winning percentage of .532, the highest of any contender's remaining schedule.

Much remains uncertain as the season winds down, but the upcoming series against the Braves stands out as potentially decisive. This penultimate matchup could well determine the postseason fate of both teams.

In a year where the National League appears wide open, any team could potentially make a late surge. Each NL Wild Card contender has a legitimate claim for a shot at October, setting the stage for an enthralling close to the regular season.

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Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have emerged as one of the most formidable teams in baseball since the All-Star break. Post-break, they lead Major League Baseball in several key offensive metrics including wRC+ (135), OPS (.857), batting average (.283), and wOBA (.366). They also top the charts with 73 home runs and 275 runs scored, which is 53 more than any other team during this period.

As July began, the Diamondbacks were underperforming with a record two games below .500 and three games away from a playoff spot. However, they have since surged to a 37-18 record, lifting them to 17 games above .500.

Contributions from key players, previously acknowledged as MVP contenders and Rookie of the Year, have been pivotal to the Diamondbacks' rise. Their impressive offensive output is reflected in a combined fWAR of 13.1 since the break, the highest in the league, complemented by a pitching staff that ranks fourth in both fWAR (4.0) and FIP (3.69).

Having proven their potential last year, the Diamondbacks are gaining momentum at a crucial time. Their performance will be crucial as they face a challenging September schedule. Only 10 of their remaining 23 games are against teams with losing records, including five against their division rivals, the San Francisco Giants. They also face a tough series against the first-place Milwaukee Brewers and the division-leading Astros, culminating in a critical home series against the San Diego Padres, who are narrowly ahead in the Wild Card standings.

With much baseball still to be played, the race for the top Wild Card spot could hinge on this final series in Arizona, marking a strenuous but potentially rewarding path to the postseason.

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Analyzing the Toughest September Schedule for NL Wild Card Contenders

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