Could Matt Chapman Be an Attractive Piece at the Trade Deadline?
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
He may not be headed to Arlington, Texas, for the 2024 MLB All-Star Game next week, but third baseman Matt Chapman could still be on the move this month.
Given the parity in the National League playoff race this season, no one knows how Chapman’s team, the San Francisco Giants, intends to approach the upcoming trade deadline on July 30. Just hanging around .500, as they’ve done to this point, will likely be reason enough to remain open to any possibility.
But if the Giants decide to sell, would Chapman be worth shopping around to contending teams? Let’s explore.
The San Francisco Giants’ situation
Before we discuss Chapman’s case, let’s examine how San Francisco has managed to this point.
Sitting at 44-47 as of July 8, the Giants are 11 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West. The division, however, was never in play for the Giants. That means their best chance to make the playoffs is by clinching one of the three Wild Card spots, to which San Francisco trails another division foe in the San Diego Padres by 3.5 games.
Not impossible by any means.
Therefore, it shouldn’t surprise fans that the Giants will likely position themselves more as ‘buyers’ at the trade deadline, at least according to New York Post Insider Jon Heyman.
"I would say they want to buy."
–@JonHeyman on the Giants pic.twitter.com/EueWCTTpBl
— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) July 3, 2024
Heyman’s logic makes sense: The Giants spent a ton of money last winter on free agents (including Chapman), and are expecting the return of multiple starting pitchers in the second half, including Robbie Ray, Alex Cobb and fellow Boras client Blake Snell. This seems to point towards a potential second-half surge for San Francisco.
The Giants also have a win-now manager in Bob Melvin and a front office that has been trying to land a star player for years but has repeatedly failed in its pursuits.
The bottom line? Playoffs continue to be at the forefront of this club’s mind.
If things start going south and San Francisco decides to sell, Heyman specifically name-dropped Chapman.
Matt Chapman’s performance
Let’s set the record straight on Chapman: He’s always been an above-average hitter in this league despite his (well-deserved) reputation as one of the premier defenders at third base.
Since debuting with the Oakland Athletics in 2017, Chapman has never finished a season with a wRC+ lower than 101. In 379 plate appearances this season, the 31-year-old has a 116 wRC+.
Matt Chapman is on a roll!
A HR, a 2B and 2 RBI tonight for the Giants 3B ?
Entering tonight’s game Chapman was slashing .353/.425/.706 since June 24!
— Just Fantasy Baseball (@JustFantasyBB) July 5, 2024
We’ve heard all the criticisms of Chapman as a hitter, but generally, they aren’t true.
Of course, the veteran has holes in his offensive game: He strikes out a lot (23.2 K% in 2024), for instance. But his Baseball Savant hitter page is overwhelmingly red this season, especially in key underlying metrics such as hard-hit percentage (80th percentile), average exit velocity (91st percentile), and bat speed (98th percentile).
There’s not much to argue about the third baseman’s bat.
Ironically, Chapman’s defense is what has lagged somewhat in 2024. If it holds, his -1 Outs Above Average (OAA) would be his lowest single-season defensive rating by far. However, other metrics like Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) like him much more (6 DRS in 2024), so we’re inclined to give Chapman the benefit of the doubt on the glove side, given how strong his defense typically is at the hot corner.
MATT CHAPMAN WHAT A PLAY TO END THE GAME pic.twitter.com/Pq770iTGXP
— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) May 25, 2024
Chapman’s total profile has led to a 2.4 fWAR in 2024, the highest of the infamous “Boras Four,” who all signed deep into spring training while holding out for big-money contracts. For context, those four include Chapman’s Giants teammate Snell, Arizona Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery, and Chicago Cubs outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger.
Contract Considerations
Speaking of contracts, Chapman has a relatively team-friendly one with the San Francisco Giants.
Money is always an obstacle when attempting to trade a player. Still, Chapman’s three-year, $54 million contract (including two player option years and a 2027 mutual option) shouldn’t be too difficult to move, given that only one of those years is guaranteed.
However, a team that trades for Chapman must align with the player on those option years. This undoubtedly complicates the third baseman’s trade chops, as a rental (if Chapman does decline his player option) would constitute a vastly different return package than a player with seasons of control.
Regardless of the contract details, though, the acquiring team would be receiving an elite defender with an above-average bat. That has value, and probably even more so given the uncertainty surrounding the buyer-seller dynamic this July.
Is Matt Chapman an attractive trade piece this summer?
The short answer seems to be yes, player option years notwithstanding. And there’s one team that makes sense for him on several levels: The New York Yankees.
First, the Yankees have been rumored to be in the market for a third base upgrade without a straightforward option. The team has received a combined 1.1 fWAR from their third basemen in 2024.
With Chapman, New York would more than double its season output at the hot corner in one move.
The Yankees also need to clean up their defense and play tighter as a unit, and Chapman would help immensely with this.
But New York isn’t the only contending team that would benefit from acquiring the 31-year-old: He would make a lot of sense for the Seattle Mariners (combined 1.2 fWAR from third base), the Kansas City Royals (combined 1 fWAR from third base) and the Chicago Cubs (if they decide to buy, 1.2 combined third base fWAR).
The larger point is that a market likely exists for Chapman if the San Francisco Giants opt to sell later this month. It is just a matter of what they decide to do.
The post Could Matt Chapman Be an Attractive Piece at the Trade Deadline? appeared first on Just Baseball.
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