Will Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds Lead MLB in Stolen Bases Again in 2025?

A Step Back in Aggression

After leading all of Major League Baseball in stolen bases in 2024, De La Cruz entered the 2025 season as the favorite to do it again. But with the season halfway through, the Cincinnati Reds’ electrifying shortstop finds himself in unfamiliar territory — tied for sixth in the league, trailing a surprising group of contenders that includes O’Neil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, José Caballero of the Tampa Bay Rays, and even Chicago Cubs rookie Pete Crow-Armstrong (PCA).

Why the drop-off? It’s not a matter of speed — Elly still ranks among the fastest players in the league by Statcast sprint speed. The decline appears to be a strategic shift. Whether it’s due to a philosophical change under manager Terry Francona or an organizational hesitance to risk outs on the basepaths, De La Cruz simply isn’t running at the same clip. He’s still dynamic, but the raw attempts are down, and that’s caused ripple effects in the betting markets.

Betting the Stolen Base Leader: De La Cruz vs. The Field

Odds Movement:

• Preseason Favorite: De La Cruz was as short as +200 to repeat as the MLB stolen base leader.

• Midseason Market Update: He’s now drifted to +500 or longer on most books, while Cruz and Caballero are gaining steam at +300 and +400 respectively.

Live Market Factors:

• Elly trails the current leader by five bags and hasn’t shown the same consistent multi-steal performances from 2024.

• The Reds’ offense is leaning more on the long ball this year, minimizing the need for manufacturing runs via steals.

• Caballero and Cruz play for teams that are either rebuilding or struggling for consistency — increasing the likelihood they’ll keep running aggressively all season.

Buy or Sell: Can Elly Still Win It?

Buy: If you’re a believer in second-half surges, De La Cruz offers value at +500. He’s healthy, his tools are intact, and he has a history of late-season fireworks. Bettors who back a comeback are banking on a volume spike post-All-Star break — and De La Cruz is more than capable of swiping 40+ bags in the second half alone. One bold projection has him finishing with 64 steals, edging the field by season’s end.

Sell: Those fading Elly are pointing to the math. Five steals back with multiple players in front of him? It’s a tough climb. In this view, +500 isn’t long enough. The smarter bet is “the field” at -140 or better, especially if Cruz and Caballero remain consistent threats. Plus, with the Reds hovering around .500 and playoff odds dimming, the club may not push the envelope with aggressive base-running.

Betting Strategy: Futures, Props & Head-to-Heads

• Futures Wager: If you’re betting De La Cruz, do it before the second half opens. His odds will shrink if he has a couple of multi-steal games out of the gate.

• Head-to-Head Props: Monitor books offering H2H props between De La Cruz and Cruz/Caballero. These are valuable for hedging if you’re holding preseason tickets.

• Game-by-Game Prop: Elly’s stolen base prop odds have widened, often between +220 to +280 depending on the opposing catcher and pitcher. In division matchups against slow-to-the-plate arms, he becomes a juicy daily play.

Final Verdict: Bet the Bounceback or Take the Safer Field?

De La Cruz is still one of the most electric base runners in baseball — that hasn’t changed. But the context around him has. If you believe in talent and track record, buy the dip now before the books catch on to a second-half surge. If you’re more focused on trends, usage rates, and managerial tendencies, fade the hype and take the field.

In betting, value is timing. And with De La Cruz, the clock might be ticking on a golden midseason opportunity.

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