Mitch Keller’s Role in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Pitching Strategy

Mitch Keller and the Pittsburgh Pirates: Reliable Arm in a Run-Starved Rotation

The Pirates may not be postseason-bound in 2025, but Keller remains a rock in their rotation—a consistent, underrated contributor offering fantasy and betting value despite flying under the national radar. While Paul Skenes draws headlines and heat, Keller quietly keeps logging innings and stabilizing a team still figuring out its identity.

Let’s take a deeper look at Keller’s season, his fantasy impact, trade potential, and how bettors should approach the Pirates moving forward.

Mitch Keller: Steady, If Unspectacular, Fantasy Contributor

Through 88 innings this season, Keller owns a sub-4.00 ERA and has tallied 68 strikeouts. That’s a noticeable dip from the 10.5+ K/9 pace he flashed in 2023, but the tradeoff has been better control and fewer blow-up outings. He’s no longer trying to overpower hitters—he’s learning to pitch smarter.

In fantasy terms, Keller is a three-category guy:

• ERA: A respectable 3.90–4.10 range

• WHIP: Slightly inflated due to batted-ball luck but serviceable

• Strikeouts: Mildly useful but no longer a punchout machine

• Wins? Forget about it. The Pirates can’t score consistently, and Keller often gets left hanging even after quality starts

Fantasy Take:

• SP3/SP4 in 12-team mixed leagues

• Start him at home or vs. low-offense opponents

• Fade in DFS against high-powered lineups, especially on the road

Betting Lens: Target Keller Props—Not Wins

Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of MLB in run support, and Keller gets slightly more help than Skenes—but not much. This makes him a frustrating pitcher in Moneyline or Win prop markets. However, there’s still value in individual pitching props.

Best Betting Angles:

• Over Outs Recorded (16.5) — Keller regularly works into the 6th inning, especially in pitcher-friendly matchups

• Under Earned Runs Allowed (2.5) — a solid lean in games against below-average offenses

• Fade W/L bets entirely — Pirates’ offense and bullpen make wins unreliable

Keller vs. the Spread:

• When Keller starts, consider First 5 Unders and Pirates +0.5 F5 plays—he typically keeps them in the game early, even if they can’t finish it late.

Trade Deadline Watch: Will the Pirates Move Keller?

While some around the league have speculated about a deadline deal, a trade seems unlikely. The Pirates signed Keller to a 5-year, $77 million extension before the 2024 season, and he’s now in year two of that contract. It’s affordable by modern standards (just over $15 million AAV), and he gives Pittsburgh something every rebuilding team needs: innings security.

Unless a contender overpays—something like a fringe Top 50 prospect plus immediate bullpen help—Keller likely stays put.

He’s not a frontline postseason ace, but he’d slot in nicely as a No. 3 on a playoff-bound rotation, which could tempt a club like the Cleveland Guardians, Seattle Mariners, or Milwaukee Brewers if they get aggressive. Still, Pittsburgh’s best shot at competing in 2026 and 2027 involves keeping Keller in-house.

SP Comparison: Keller vs. Drew Rasmussen of the Tampa Bay Rays

Keller and Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays) offer an interesting contrast. Rasmussen’s been terrific with a 2.61 ERA, though he rarely pitches deep into games. Meanwhile, Keller gives you more innings but slightly worse ratios. Both fall into that “valuable but not dominant” SP2/SP3 tier, depending on matchups and league settings.

From a betting lens:

• Rasmussen is better for Unders and 1st 5 bets

• Keller is more durable, but his team context makes betting on wins or spreads much tougher

Final Word: Real-Life Asset, Betting Frustration

Keller is the kind of pitcher every team wants—but few fantasy managers love. He’s not flashy, not a strikeout king, and not backed by offense, but he’ll eat innings, limit damage, and be dependable over the long haul.

Fantasy Verdict: Hold and start selectively. Solid SP3.

Betting Take:

• Yes to innings and ER props

• No to win bets and Pirates ML unless at big plus-money
  
  Trade Outlook: Staying in Pittsburgh unless the return is too good to pass up

Keller may not move the needle on highlight reels, but if you like stability over sizzle—he’s your guy.

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