MLB ALCS Preview: Mariners vs Blue Jays Game 7 Best Bets

It all comes down to this. After a see-saw battle between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners, these American League foes are knotted at three games apiece. Now, the winner of Monday night’s pivotal Game 7 represents the AL in the World Series. 

The betting market has the Jays out in front. Check out our top plays for tonight’s MLB action!

Where to Watch Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays

• Ballpark: Rogers Centre
• Location: Toronto, ON
• Where to Watch: FOX, FS1, SNET
• Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
• Spread: TOR -1.5 (+155) | Total: 7.5
• Moneyline: TOR -130 | SEA +110

Monday night’s clash between the Mariners and Blue Jays feature the same pitching matchup from Game 3. Shane Bieber takes the ball for the hosts, with the M’s countering with George Kirby. Both pitchers struggled at times in last week’s outing, but we’re anticipating a more competitive affair at the Rogers Centre.

Bieber struggled early in Seattle. The former Cy Young winner couldn’t locate his pitches early, getting tagged for a double, homer, and a walk within the first four batters. While he eventually settled into a rhythm, Bieber tends to knocked around early. He encountered the same issues in the ALDS, lasting just 2.2 innings against the Yankees while giving up three runs on five hits. Toronto needs him to buck that trend at home.

Similarly, Kirby couldn’t figure anything out in Game 3. He was torched for eight earned runs in 4.0 innings pitched, giving up three homers in defeat. Home runs haven’t been a persistent issue for the Mariners’ starter, but he has struggled in the postseason. The tall righty tends to leave his fastball up in the zone, which has precipitated 17 hits over 14.0 innings pitched, including four long fly balls and nine extra-base hits.

Those pitching woes are compounded by two combustible bullpens that have also struggled in the postseason. In 10 playoff games, Jays’ relievers are toting a disastrous 6.02 ERA. The Mariners have fared slightly better with a 3.97 mark, but that ERA has ballooned to 5.22 over their last five.

Both lineups have flashed their unmerciful power, and it’s become clear that neither pitching staff can limit the opposition. This total has dipped low enough that the over warrants a play.

Best Bet: Over 7.5 -110

His regular season results were somewhat tepid, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been the Blue Jays on his back in the postseason. We predict that Vladdy Jr. will etch his name in baseball lore with a game-changing performance in a decisive Game 7. 

The Mariners want nothing to do with Guerrero Jr. Given the option, the M’s have intentionally walked the Jays slugger on multiple occasions in the ALCS, rather than let Guerrero do damage with his bat. That decision has probably saved the Mariners a few runs, but they won’t have the luxury of putting runners on base in Game 7.

Guerrero Jr. is swinging out of his cleats. He leads the MLB with six playoff home runs, contributing to a mind-numbing 1.000 slugging percentage and 1.532 OPS. He’s done so while decreasing his strikeout rate to 4.5%, illustrating his keen eye at the dish. 

Six of Vladdy Jr.’s 18 hits have left the park, and several doubles have come up just short of leaving the park, as well. Kirby gets barreled 8.5% of the time and his 43.9% hard-hit rate ranks among the bottom 21% of MLB pitchers. Guerrero Jr. will continue his postseason onslaught and is a top bet to send one out on Monday night.

Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run +300

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MLB ALCS Best Bets: Mariners vs Blue Jays Game 7

• Over 7.5
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Hit a Home Run +300

The ALCS features all the titillating drama that was lacking from the NLCS, and Monday’s Game 7 is no exception. We’re taking a firm stance on the over, and are backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to send another ball out of the park.

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