Opening Day Analysis: Minnesota Twins vs. St. Louis Cardinals and More Previews
Sportsgrid Staff
Host · Writer
Opening Day Pitching Matchup: Pablo López of the Minnesota Twins vs. Sonny Gray of the St. Louis Cardinals
On paper, Opening Day between the Twins and Cardinals feels like a toss-up. In reality, there’s a stark contrast between a team that knows exactly who it is — and one that feels like it’s still searching.
López gets the ball for Minnesota, a no-brainer decision after his breakout 2023 and solid 2024. He’s the clear-cut ace of this rotation and projects to go deep into games with strikeout upside and improved command.
Gray, meanwhile, returns to the mound for St. Louis… but it comes with a few warning signs.
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Velocity is down this spring.
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Coming off injury concerns.
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The Cardinals’ staff has more questions than answers.
This is a reunion game for Gray against his former team, but revenge narratives don’t help you throw 95 again.
Buy or Sell: Cardinals Are a Playoff Contender?
Sell — Hard Pass.
The concerns in St. Louis are real and plentiful:
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A rotation that’s being held together with duct tape.
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A front office in limbo, with Chaim Bloom already being linked as the next GM.
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A promising but underperforming group of young bats (Gorman, Donovan, Walker) that haven’t taken “the leap.”
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The team’s best hope? Playing in a weak NL Central.
They might steal some wins in a division that lacks a dominant power, but this roster screams 4th place ceiling, not October baseball.
If you’re looking at season win totals or futures, sell the Cardinals playoff odds and consider playing under their win total, especially if it’s posted around the mid-80s.
Minnesota’s Quiet Confidence
The Twins may not scream “juggernaut,” but they enter 2025 with a clear identity:
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López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober give them legit rotation stability.
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The bullpen remains reliable.
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Offensively, it’s a balanced group with upside — Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and a healthy Byron Buxton can do damage.
And while they may not get the national spotlight like the Dodgers or Braves, they are built for consistency — and that starts on Opening Day with their ace on the hill.
Betting Preview: Where’s the Edge?
Lean: Twins Moneyline (-115 to -120 range expected)
Here’s why:
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López is the better pitcher — with better recent form, fewer health concerns, and more swing-and-miss in his arsenal.
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Gray’s dip in velocity is concerning, and it’s fair to question whether he’ll be fully stretched out.
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The Cardinals offense is talented but inconsistent. If they don’t get to López early, they could struggle against a strong Minnesota pen.
Total: Look for the Over/Under to settle around 8.5.
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Slight lean Under if you trust López to keep the Cards quiet and think Gray can battle through 5.
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But if you’re skeptical of Gray’s health (and we are), avoid the total and focus on the side.
Final Word: One Team Looks Ready — The Other Looks Lost
This Opening Day matchup tells us a lot before the first pitch is even thrown:
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The Twins have a plan, a rotation they trust, and a roster that looks ready to defend their division.
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The Cardinals have talent, but also a fading ace, young players in need of development, and a franchise in transition.
Betting Pick: Twins ML, López Over Ks (if line is 5.5 or lower), Cardinals season win total Under.
Prediction: Twins 5, Cardinals 3.
It’s only one game — but sometimes, Opening Day says everything.
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