Pete Crow-Armstrong Might Be MLB’s Biggest X-factor

As a whole, 2025 was a great year for Pete Crow-Armstrong. He won his first Gold Glove in center field, became the second Cub to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in one season — joining Sammy Sosa — and cemented himself as a building block in the Chicago Cubs core as they look to contend for a World Series.

However, that is the view from 30,000 feet. If you descend down and take a closer look, it becomes apparent that 2025 was a turbulent season for PCA. The highs he was able to achieve were extraordinary. The lows he managed to sink to were, at times, hard to watch.

With the 2026 season right around the corner, and Crow-Armstrong at the World Baseball Classic during spring training, let’s take a look at what made 2025 such a polarizing season for him, and what the hope is for 2026.

A Rollercoaster Kind of Season

2025 was a tale of two halves for PCA, and that is putting it mildly. The 23-year-old broke out in the first half, absolutely mashing baseballs, showing off elite range in the outfield, and causing chaos on the basepaths on his way to being named the starting center fielder for the NL in the All-Star Game.

At the break, he had a slash line of .265/.302/.544, 25 home runs, 27 stolen bases and a 131 wRC+. Absolutely mind boggling numbers from a guy who managed just 10 home runs and a wRC+ of 86 the previous season.

At the break, the Cubs were on top of the NL Central at 57-39, and PCA was receiving consideration for MVP at just 23 years old. There is no way that Cubs fans could have known what was coming next.

There was always a nagging feeling that PCA couldn’t sustain the astonishingly productive play that he managed in the first half. However, it was not expected that things were going to get as bad as they did.

In the final two months of the season, PCA had a wRC+ of 45. In August alone, it was 22. His slash line was an abysmal .188/.237/.295 over August and September. At the end of July, he had 27 home runs and 29 stolen bases. He ended the season with 31 and 35, respectively. He went from being an MVP candidate in the first half, to being practically unplayable in the second half.

What Happened?

So, what caused this slump? Well, it is a little convoluted. His walk rate stayed the exact same at 4.5%. His strikeout rate rose by about three percent, but that is not nearly enough to explain his wRC+ going from 131 before the break to 72 after it.

He didn’t stop hitting the ball hard, though. In fact, his hard-hit rate went up in the second half by about 2.5%. His pull rate rose by nearly 10%, and his line-drive percentage even rose, going up a little over two percent as well. 

All of this doesn’t change the fact that he hit six home runs in the second half after hitting 25 in the first. The most drastic change in his batted-ball stats was his home run-to-fly ball ratio, crashing from 17.6% in the first half all the way to 7.8% in the second half.

Even with this horrific stretch, 2025 was still a great year for PCA on the surface. He boosted his wRC+ from 86 in 2024 to 109 in 2025. His 5.4 fWAR was tops among the Cubs’ roster, higher than players like Nico Hoerner, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Busch.

He joined Mike Trout and Willie Mays as the only primary center fielders to achieve 30-30 and 10+ fielding runs in the same year. Keep in mind, almost all of that production came in the first half. Just imagine what he can accomplish if he keeps his production up for the entire year.

Crow-Armstrong’s weaknesses are no secret. He struck out 155 times in 2025, while only walking 29 times. His chase rate of 41.9% was the third highest in MLB among qualified hitters. For reference, the MLB average was around 30% last season.

He also struggled heavily with left-handed arms. On the season, he had a 129 wRC+ against righties, while only managing a 59 wRC+ against lefties.

There are glaring holes that need to be cleaned up for him to put together a complete season, but keep in mind that he will be turning just 24 years old only days before Opening Day. He’s still very early into what could be a very special MLB career.

Crow-Armstrong’s Value to the Cubs

While some of these stats may seem concerning, it is important to remember the kind of hitter PCA is. Interestingly, the two months where his chase rate was lowest were in August and September, his worst months of the season. This just goes to show the differences in how each player finds success.

What works for a player like Ian Happ, who had a chase rate of 20.8% in 2025, may not be the same thing that will work for PCA. There is no question that he needs to work on his swing decisions. However, trying to force him out of his aggressive approach into a different way of hitting could do more harm than good for his production.

There’s no questioning his value to the Cubs. In the first half, with an MVP-caliber PCA, they were 57-39. In the second half, they were 35-31. A Cubs team with Crow-Armstrong’s first-half production is a true title contender.

Without him, they were just a few games above .500.

With Kyle Tucker no longer in the picture, PCA’s production at the plate becomes even more important heading into 2026. Sure, the team went out and brought in veteran Alex Bregman, but the Cubs need an MVP-caliber bat in the middle of their lineup, and PCA has the potential to be just that.

If he falls back into his second-half ways this coming season, it leaves a gaping hole in the heart of the order that will be challenging to fill. To put it simply, the Cubs’ chances of getting back to the World Series could very well be driven by whichever version of PCA Chicago gets in 2026.

PCA at the WBC

PCA gained some valuable big-game experience in the 2026 World Baseball Classic for Team USA.

Crow-Armstrong lit it up in the tournament. Trailing 8-1 against Italy in their final pool play game, he blasted a three-run home run to cut the lead down to four in the bottom of the seventh inning. Then, with no one on in the ninth, he went deep again, bringing Team USA even closer to completing a comeback.

While it wasn’t enough to give them the win, it was still a special performance and showed the type of game-altering potential that he possesses.

In the quarterfinal against Canada, PCA stayed hot. After getting a base knock in the third and flying out to the warning track in the fourth, he swatted a single into center field to put Team USA up 5-0, and they would ultimately win 5-3.

Obviously, Cubs fans have to be ecstatic about this level of play in the WBC for PCA. Could it be a signal of good things to come in the regular season? The only thing we can do is wait. Opening Day is nearly here, and only then will we finally get an idea of what 2026 has in store for Pete Crow-Armstrong.

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