Red Sox vs Rays MLB Picks | Wednesday MLB Best Bets, April 16
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We had two bets on the board yesterday—one nearly gave me a heart attack, while the other was as smooth as it gets. Mitch Keller’s Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (+115) was a rollercoaster ride. He entered his final inning having allowed just four hits. After recording two quick outs, he hit a batter and then gave up back-to-back singles to Dylan Crews and Nasim Nunez. It was a gift from the baseball gods—and we were overdue.
And how about Quinn Priester? Absolute domination. He shut out the Tigers and allowed just one hit. Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty’s outing unfolded exactly as expected. The Brewers First 5 ML (+115) came through for us, securing a much-needed sweep.
2025 Record: 17-11 (+6.00 Units)
All of my picks are available on BetMGM. New users—use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first bet doesn’t hit.
Tonight’s Best Bet: Red Sox vs. Rays (7:05 PM ET)
Pitching Matchup
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Red Sox: Sean Newcomb (4.97 ERA, 2.13 WHIP in 12.2 IP)
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Rays: Zack Littell (6.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 17 IP)
The Tampa Bay Rays have played eight consecutive home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, and the offense has been on full display—those matchups are averaging 10.6 runs per game. In the current series against Boston, the first two games produced a combined 28 runs.
Naturally, oddsmakers bumped up the total for tonight. That may have been a mistake.
Despite shaky early-season numbers, I like both starting pitchers in this spot.
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Why I Trust Zack Littell
Littell’s 6.88 ERA is misleading. He’s faced the Boston Red Sox lineup often and fared extremely well. Across 51 plate appearances, Red Sox hitters have managed just a .122 batting average and a .279 xwOBA, while Littell boasts a 33% strikeout rate in those matchups.
He faced Boston three times last season, putting up a 3.06 ERA and limiting them to a .169 average. His peripherals—especially walk and strikeout rates—look similar to 2024, when he posted a solid 3.63 ERA. He’s given up harder contact so far, but it’s a small sample I’m willing to overlook.
Adding to the edge: Boston will be without Alex Bregman, who went 5-for-5 yesterday and lifted his wRC+ to 161. He’s now on paternity leave, and his absence is a major blow.
Even with yesterday’s explosion, Boston’s offense still has just a league-average 100 wRC+ vs. righties, and they’ve benefited from the 4th-highest BABIP—a stat due for regression.
Backing Sean Newcomb
Newcomb’s surface stats aren’t great, but dig deeper and there’s reason for optimism:
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FIP: 2.55
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xERA: 3.44
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SIERA: 4.02
His fastball, while only sitting at 93 MPH, has held hitters to a .133 batting average and .149 xwOBA. His slurve has been a whiff machine, generating a 42% whiff rate and just a .147 xwOBA against.
The Rays mash righties, but their offense dips notably against left-handed pitching. They’re sitting at 100 wRC+ vs. lefties, with key bats like Kam Misner and Jonathan Aranda typically sitting in those matchups. Without those weapons, Newcomb has a fighting chance to keep this lineup quiet.
Bullpen Status
Both bullpens are well-equipped for tonight:
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Rays: Fairbanks and Uceta are fresh, and Montgomery, Cleavinger, and others are available. This unit ranks top 10 in baseball.
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Red Sox: Chapman, Whitlock, and Slaten are ready. Fulmer and Kelly are unavailable, but that’s no concern given how strong their top options are.
Weather Factor
Steinbrenner Field will feature horizontal winds—not the type that help fly balls leave the yard. That’s another mark in favor of the under.
The Play: Under 9.5 (-120)
This total opened a full run higher than the previous two games in the series. Given the pitching matchup, bullpen conditions, and environmental factors, I think it’s too high. I believe the fair number is 8.5. I’d play this down to Under 9 (-110), but grab the 9.5 (-120) while it’s still out there to cover that key number.
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