Series Preview: Padres open 9-game road swing at up-and-down Orioles

The sense of relief when Fernando Tatis Jr. lined Chase Petty’s middle-middle slider just over the wall in left for a 5-4 walk-off victory over the Cincinnati Reds was palpable at Petco Park.

It not only sealed a much needed series win for the Padres (35-32, 2nd in NL West), their first since May 22-24 against the Athletics that was followed by dropping four straight, but also was the fifth walk off win of the campaign. Three of the previous four times San Diego was able to continue that momentum into the following series and win it, which will be needed as they embark on their second-longest road trip of the season.

It begins with a three-game set at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against a Baltimore (33-37, 4th in AL East) side that has bounced back from falling to a season-low eight games below .500 on May 20 by going 12-8 since. The O’s have won three, tied two and dropped one series, and have recorded all three of their walk off wins over that stretch.

Fernando A-Go Go

For as much as breaking his home run drought was a major story for Tatis when he crushed his first of the season in game 56 of the campaign, one can point to the first game of the series against the Dodgers on May 18 as the beginning of his turnaround.

At that point, he was hitting .232 and had just finished going 1-for-12 with a single and a walk in the Padres series sweep at Seattle.

Since then, Tatis has raised his batting average 49 points to .281 for the season and ranks fourth among qualified hitters across the Majors with a .376 average in the past 21 games. His 32 hits are tied for most in the Majors over that stretch with Shohei Ohtani.

Also, they more than doubled the next two Brown and Gold batters combined (Jackson Merrill at 15, Ty France with 13), and Tatis scored a team-high nine runs. Another encouraging number is that his strikeout percentage has been 14.0%, after over the first 45 games of the season it was 24.4%.

Orioles on an Upswing

Baltimore has been up-and-down for most of the season, never winning more than three games in a row (they’ve done that four times) while also losing three or more games consecutively five times. The O’s have won their last two, splitting their four-game set hosting the Seattle Mariners by notching wins of 7-2 on Wednesday and 7-5 on Thursday — those stopped a four-game losing spell.

Offense has been their calling card, ranking seventh in the Majors and second in the AL with 331 runs. Off-season acquisition Pete Alonzo has continued to provide pop with a team-leading 15 home runs and 44 RBI, while Adley Rutschman ranks second with 39 driven in and Gunnar Henderson has swatted 13 over the fence.

Third-year third baseman Blaze Alexander has made the most of his change of scenery since arriving from the Arizona Diamondbacks via trade, leading the team with a .285 average. Over the last 20 games his average has been .391 and his 13 RBI are tied with Rutschman for third behind Colton Cowser (14 of his 23 RBI for the season) and Alonzo (16 RBI).

Pitching Match-ups

Friday, June 12: RHP Griffin Canning (0-4, 6.34 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Baz (3-6, 4.09 ERA)

Since allowing six runs in both his second and third appearances, Canning has dialed it in and allowed three runs of fewer in his last four. His last start was arguably his best, a no-decision against the Mets on June 6 where he allowed one run on three hits in five innings with six strikeouts and a walk.

With the most innings pitched (77) amongst O’s starters, Baz has allowed two or fewer earned runs in his last four starts, though his last time out he got tagged for four unearned runs in a 6-4 loss at Toronto on June 7. The knuckle curve is his primary out pitch, which he’s gotten 39 of his 66 strikeouts with this season along with a 29.2% whiff rate overall.

Saturday, June 13: RHP Randy Vásquez (5-4, 3.63 ERA) vs. RHP Trey Gibson (1-1, 4.24 ERA)

After a fast start to the season, Vásquez has taken three of his losses over his past four starts, during which he’s allowed 13 of his 28 earned runs for the season. He’s pitched at least five innings in 10 of his 13 starts, but two of those “fewer than” outings have also come over his last four.

Recalled on June 8, Gibson made his Majors debut earlier on May 3 at the Yankees, and has gone at least 4 2/3 innings in all three of his starts for Baltimore. With Triple A Norfolk, he’s made nine starts with a 3.55 ERA and has a 38/19 strikeouts to walks ratio.

Sunday, June 14: RHP Walker Buehler (3-3, 4.33 ERA) vs. LHP Trevor Rogers (3-6, 6.15 ERA)

Since allowing 19 earned runs over his first seven starts, Buehler has allowed 11 over his last six and reached the fifth inning in five. His current streak of three starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed is his longest with the Padres

Rogers had a stretch of seven starts where he allowed four or more runs in six games, but has allowed just one and three runs in his most recent two, and has gotten into or through the sixth inning in his last three starts. He mixes five pitches, and ranks in the 82nd percentile with a 33.8% chase percentage, led by whiff rates of 30.3% on the sweeper and 25.7% on the changeup.