The Orioles Fleeced the Twins in the Jorge López Trade

What We Learned From the Lopez Deal

Before delving too deeply into disappointment over this trade, Twins fans should consider that Povich and Cano might not have developed into the players they are now had they stayed with Minnesota.

Baltimore has garnered a reputation for developing pitchers, particularly relievers, in recent years. It's possible the Orioles identified something in Cano that the Twins overlooked, though there's no definitive way to know.

However, considering the current state of the Twins' pitching, it's evident they could benefit from players like Povich and Cano. The team currently ranks 25th in starter ERA and lacks a left-handed pitcher in the rotation, a gap Povich could have filled. Additionally, with the bullpen ranking 15th in ERA and riddled with inconsistency, Cano's solid performance this season suggests he would be a valuable addition.

Critics may argue that it's unfair to scrutinize a front office based on a trade's outcome years later, but I contend that there are two critical times to evaluate a trade. Immediate reactions and long-term results both offer valid insights.

While the trade initially seemed advantageous for the Twins, that doesn’t exempt the front office from accountability for its long-term outcomes. When paired with the Tyler Mahle deal from the same period (which is another story), it's clear that these transactions merit scrutiny. Both trades depleted the farm system with minimal return, highlighting a significant issue even if they seemed reasonable at the time.

In conclusion, the Jorge López trade turned out to be a debacle for the Twins. They gained little from López and lost considerably more, highlighting a trade strategy that, in hindsight, was flawed. While the Twins must now focus on the future, it doesn't mitigate the frustration surrounding this deal.

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The Trade That Brought López to Minnesota

The trade that brought Jorge López from the Baltimore Orioles to the Twins was finalized on August 2, 2022. Minnesota's trade package to Baltimore included right-handed pitchers Yennier Cano and Juan Nuñez, as well as left-handed pitchers Cade Povich and Juan Rojas. At the time, the trade appeared highly favorable for the Twins. They were acquiring an All-Star closer in his first year of arbitration eligibility and only had to part with their 22nd-ranked prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, along with some less heralded players considered as throw-ins or lottery tickets. The consensus among many baseball analysts was that the Twins had made a wise move.

Cade Povich, ranked as the 22nd prospect in the Twins organization at the trade's time, was seen as expendable. He had not progressed beyond High-A and was struggling to establish himself. Picked in the third round of the 2021 draft, Povich's inclusion in the trade wasn't seen as a significant loss for Minnesota.

Yennier Cano was often regarded as a project that hadn't panned out. Although he had performed well in Triple-A, his major league stint told a different story. Over 13.2 innings pitched for the Twins in 2022, Cano recorded a 9.22 ERA and walked more than seven batters per nine innings.

The trade's final components, Juan Nuñez and Juan Rojas, were young prospects in their age-21 and 18 seasons, respectively. Seen as lottery tickets, they were the kind of prospects that could either develop into valuable players or not pan out at all, making them easy to include in such trades.

Jorge Lopez: Where is he now?

Let's begin with Jorge López, who was the marquee player in the trade. The former All-Star pitched only 58 innings for the Twins, achieving a disappointing 4.81 ERA and securing just seven saves across 60 appearances.

These figures significantly contrast with his 1.68 ERA prior to the trade in 2022, indicating that López struggled considerably in Minnesota. However, he has found some level of success after moving on from the Twins.

Before being designated for assignment by the Mets this season, López had managed a respectable 3.76 ERA over 26 innings. His ERA+, at 103, suggests he was performing slightly above the league average in terms of run prevention, marking an improvement.

Unfortunately for the Twins, the reasons behind López's underwhelming performance in Minnesota remain unclear.

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Yennier Cano

While there is another component of this trade that may prove more valuable than Cano in the long run, it's important to start with Cano, as he was the first clear sign that the Twins might have erred in their decision.

In the 2023 season, the year following the trade, Cano emerged as one of the most effective and utilized bullpen arms in baseball. He ranked 10th in appearances with 72, 15th in innings pitched at 72.2, and 11th in fWAR among relievers at 1.7.

While López was struggling in Minnesota, Cano was excelling in Baltimore. He made the All-Star team in 2023 and has continued to perform at an elite level into 2024, boasting a 2.30 ERA over 31.1 innings with the Orioles.

The 2023 season made it clear that Cano was simply a better pitcher than López. Regardless of the outcomes of the other elements of the trade, Cano's performance alone indicates that the Twins made a significant misstep. At the very least, they exchanged one reliever for another and ended up with the lesser performer.

Cade Povich

Currently, it appears that Cade Povich may turn out to be the most valuable player involved in this trade. At the time of the trade, Povich was ranked as the Twins' No. 22 prospect. Entering this season, he was listed as the 10th-ranked prospect in the Orioles' system by Just Baseball, within a particularly strong pool of talent.

The 24-year-old left-hander had an impressive start to his season in Triple-A. Despite a slight dip in performance, he managed to maintain a 3.18 ERA over 56.2 innings, with a striking rate of nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings. Povich was promoted and made his MLB debut for the Orioles on June 6. In his second start, he pitched six shutout innings against the Atlanta Braves, striking out six and issuing no walks.

With these performances, Povich is demonstrating that he has the makings of a genuine major league starter, undoubtedly causing the Twins to regret parting with him.

What We Learned From the Lopez Deal

Before delving too deeply into disappointment over this trade, Twins fans should consider that Povich and Cano might not have developed into the players they are now had they stayed with Minnesota.

Baltimore has garnered a reputation for developing pitchers, particularly relievers, in recent years. It's possible the Orioles identified something in Cano that the Twins overlooked, though there's no definitive way to know.

However, considering the current state of the Twins' pitching, it's evident they could benefit from players like Povich and Cano. The team currently ranks 25th in starter ERA and lacks a left-handed pitcher in the rotation, a gap Povich could have filled. Additionally, with the bullpen ranking 15th in ERA and riddled with inconsistency, Cano's solid performance this season suggests he would be a valuable addition.

Critics may argue that it's unfair to scrutinize a front office based on a trade's outcome years later, but I contend that there are two critical times to evaluate a trade. Immediate reactions and long-term results both offer valid insights.

While the trade initially seemed advantageous for the Twins, that doesn’t exempt the front office from accountability for its long-term outcomes. When paired with the Tyler Mahle deal from the same period (which is another story), it's clear that these transactions merit scrutiny. Both trades depleted the farm system with minimal return, highlighting a significant issue even if they seemed reasonable at the time.

In conclusion, the Jorge López trade turned out to be a debacle for the Twins. They gained little from López and lost considerably more, highlighting a trade strategy that, in hindsight, was flawed. While the Twins must now focus on the future, it doesn't mitigate the frustration surrounding this deal.

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