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MOTOR RACING · 5 months ago

109th Indy 500 Trends, Insights and Where to Watch

Sportsgrid Staff

Host · Writer

The 109th running of the Indianapolis 500 is set for Sunday afternoon, and the betting market is buzzing with sharp movement, public favorites, and significant sportsbook exposure. BetMGM’s latest numbers reveal major steam on key contenders like Alex Palou and Pato O’Ward, while historical narratives and recent performance drive heavy action on Josef Newgarden and two-time winner Takuma Sato.

Let’s dig into the key betting storylines, line movement, and the statistical resumes behind the most-watched drivers on the board.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.

How to Watch the 2025 Indy 500

  • Location: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
  • TV time: 10:00 a.m. ET
  • Race time: 12:45 p.m. ET
  • Date: Sunday, May 25, 2025
  • TV channel: Fox
  • Live stream: Fubo 

2025 Indy 500 Line Movement

  • Pato O’Ward +600 to +500
  • Alex Palou +900 to +500
  • Takuma Sato +2500 to +1300

Pato O’Ward: +600 ➝ +500

O’Ward has seen a bump in betting interest, and his odds have shortened accordingly. The McLaren driver enters the Indy 500 ranked fourth in the standings with 148 points, one pole, and two top-5 finishes. His recent form includes a second-place finish at the Indy Road Course and a sixth at Alabama, showing both pace and consistency. With three top-10s in five races, he’s been one of the most well-rounded drivers on the grid. O’Ward’s rise in both ticket and handle share reflects sharp confidence in a breakthrough win.

Alex Palou: +900 ➝ +500

No driver has seen more steam than Palou, who has surged from +900 to co-favorite at +500. He’s currently first in the IndyCar standings with a flawless start to 2025: four wins, five top-5 finishes, and 5-for-5 in top-10s. He’s fresh off back-to-back wins at Indianapolis (road course) and Alabama, dominating with leads in four of five races. Palou has posted finishes of 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st—arguably the hottest driver in motorsports right now. With this form, the line movement isn’t surprising.

Takuma Sato: +2500 ➝ +1300

Sato, the two-time Indy 500 winner (2017, 2020), has become a late riser in the betting market. While the 48-year-old has not raced this season, he did finish 14th in last year’s Indy 500. His history at Indianapolis is likely fueling this surge from +2500 to +1300. Bettors see value in a veteran who knows how to manage the 500-mile grind—and has proven it with two Borg-Warner Trophies.

2025 Indy 500 Highest Ticket%

  • Pato O’Ward 9.7%
  • Alex Palou 9.6%
  • Josef Newgarden 8.7%

Pato O’Ward – 9.7% of Tickets

The public continues to back O’Ward at a high clip. With strong results in three of his last four races, including a runner-up at Indy’s road course, he’s demonstrated he can contend across varying conditions. His balance of youth, speed, and growing experience makes him a popular outright selection.

Alex Palou – 9.6% of Tickets

Right behind O’Ward is Palou, whose electric 2025 campaign has put him atop the standings. His combination of elite pace and tactical racing has made him a near-weekly lock for the podium. Bettors are clearly expecting that to translate to Indy’s oval this time around.

Josef Newgarden – 8.7% of Tickets

Newgarden’s presence in the top three for ticket share isn’t just about form—it’s about legacy. The back-to-back defending Indy 500 champion has a unique edge over the field. While he’s struggled to start the 2025 season (12th in standings, just one top-5 finish), his third-place result at St. Petersburg and proven ability at the Brickyard are keeping bettors interested.

2025 Indy 500 Highest Handle%

  • Alex Palou 16.0%
  • Pato O’Ward 14.7%
  • Josef Newgarden 10.0%

Alex Palou – 16.0% of Handle

Palou’s dominance has drawn serious betting volume. High-stakes players have piled on him early, driving up the handle despite a lower ticket count than O’Ward. That suggests more confidence from sharp bettors putting real money behind his breakout season.

Pato O’Ward – 14.7% of Handle

O’Ward is right behind in dollars wagered, another sign of dual interest from casual fans and big bettors alike. As a driver who’s already battled near the front in multiple 2025 races, he’s being treated like a legitimate threat to win it all on Sunday.

Josef Newgarden – 10.0% of Handle

Despite a relatively modest start to the season, Newgarden’s handle percentage reflects his high ceiling. Back-to-back Indy 500 wins speak louder than early-season stats. Bettors are banking on him flipping the switch when it matters most.

2025 Indy 500 Biggest Liabilities

  • Alex Palou
  • Robert Shwartzman
  • Josef Newgarden

Alex Palou

With the highest handle and nearly the most tickets, Palou is BetMGM’s biggest potential payout. His betting profile suggests serious exposure, and a win would be costly for the book. It’s a dangerous combination: hot driver, short price, sharp and public backing.

Robert Shwartzman +25000 ➝ +1800

Shwartzman may be 24th in the standings with no top-10s and finishes of 18th, 20th, 22nd, and 25th this season, but he’s somehow drawn enough betting volume to appear on BetMGM’s liability sheet. It’s unclear what’s driving the interest—possibly qualifying or longshot chasers—but sportsbooks are paying attention.

Josef Newgarden

Legacy meets liability with Newgarden. Despite a lukewarm 2025 campaign, bettors simply trust him at Indy. That trust has led to a top-three handle share and placed him in a position to burn the books again.

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