NCAA March Madness Picks for Thursday’s First-Round Day Games

#10 Nevada vs. #7 Dayton - West Region | Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET | TBS

Perhaps the most challenging game to pick among this grouping, these teams sit just four spots apart in KenPom entering this matchup. Dayton is led by All-American DaRon Holmes II, an NBA prospect big man who should give Nevada's lack of interior some serious issues in this matchup. Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas as backcourt mates cannot be ignored in this matchup for the Wolf Pack, and they pack a serious scoring punch as the leaders of the seventh-oldest team in the country. Based on the unimpressive track record for the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament and how much of a problem Holmes can be inside, we'll still take the Flyers as underdogs.

The Pick: Dayton +1.5

#11 Duquesne vs. #6 BYU - East Region | Thursday, 12:40 p.m. ET | truTV

Duquesne is wildly over-seeded here. The Bracket Matrix - a site aggregating bracket projections from 226 registered bracket projections, including ours, had the Dukes averaged out as a 12.09 seed, making this a hefty over-seeding. While BYU was a five-seed in the seed list, it was forced to the six-line, with all fives playing on Friday and Sunday, where the Cougars cannot play on Sundays. It may have been a gift from the committee to give them an overseeded matchup, but we'll never truly know. The Dukes were nowhere near good enough to be in this field, and they benefitted from an Atlantic 10 Tournament that busted wide open in the semifinals. Lay it with BYU here.

The Pick: BYU -9.5

NCAA ATS Picks: Day 1 Late Games | 

#14 Akron vs. #3 Creighton - Midwest Region | Thursday, 1:30 p.m. ET | TNT

Akron matches up quite well with Creighton here. While the Bluejays do most of their scoring from the three-point line, it's Akron's defensive strength. The Zips allow teams to shoot just 30 percent from beyond the arc, the 13th-lowest in the country. As a team that relies heavily on the triple, their ability to make Creighton uncomfortable will help them keep things close. The Bluejays also allow the most two-pointers in the country, and Akron sits 31st in the country in two-point percentage. There is enough in the Zips' favor for them to hang around, and we'll take them with the points.

The Pick: Akron +12.5

#15 Long Beach State vs. #2 Arizona - West Region | Thursday, 2:00 p.m. ET | TBS

Long Beach State has some serious size and athleticism that could hang with Arizona. Wins over Michigan and USC during the non-conference portion of their schedule showed an ability to contend with high-major talent. The shaky track record of head coach Tommy Lloyd in the NCAA Tournament also helps here as he's 0-4 against the spread, so we'll take another hefty dog with the points here.

The Pick: Long Beach State +20.5

#14 Morehead State vs. #3 Illinois - East Region | Thursday, 3:10 p.m. ET | truTV

Yet another dog that we are backing against the spread. Teams that have run the table to a Big Ten Tournament title have not fared well in recent years. Last season, of course, Purdue cut down the nets in Chicago just to be stunned by 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round. The year prior, Iowa was the last one standing in 2022 and was upset in the opening round by Richmond. There seems to be a bit of a developing trend here, and Illinois's suspect defense could fall victim to Riley Minix, one of the most talented mid-major talents that will be on display this week. Take the points with the Eagles.

The Pick: Morehead State +11.5

#11 Oregon vs. #6 South Carolina - Midwest Region | Thursday, 4:00 p.m. ET | TNT

Oregon has been rolling over the past ten days thanks to some monster performances from big man N'Faly Dante. The senior has been a monster in the paint for the past four games, averaging 20 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, shooting a ridiculous 43-for-49 from the field in that span. He is a total game-wrecker for the Ducks, and there may not be a player on South Carolina's roster that can stop him. The Gamecocks are also significantly behind their seed line in the predictive metrics, and we trust the regression to come here.

The Pick: Oregon +1.5

#10 Nevada vs. #7 Dayton - West Region | Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET | TBS

Perhaps the most challenging game to pick among this grouping, these teams sit just four spots apart in KenPom entering this matchup. Dayton is led by All-American DaRon Holmes II, an NBA prospect big man who should give Nevada's lack of interior some serious issues in this matchup. Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas as backcourt mates cannot be ignored in this matchup for the Wolf Pack, and they pack a serious scoring punch as the leaders of the seventh-oldest team in the country. Based on the unimpressive track record for the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament and how much of a problem Holmes can be inside, we'll still take the Flyers as underdogs.

The Pick: Dayton +1.5