Ranking the 40 Most Likely Final Four Teams Based on ESPN’s Projections

40) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record: 21-12

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.4%

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2) Houston Cougars

Record: 30-4

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 50.3%

3) Auburn Tigers

Record: 28-5

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 47.5%

4) Florida Gators

Record: 30-4

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 33.1%

5) Tennessee Volunteers

Record: 27-7

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 22.0%

6) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Record: 25-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 21.5%

7) Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 25-8

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 19.2%

8) Iowa State Cyclones

Record: 24-9

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 19.0%

9) St. John's Red Storm

Record: 30-4

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 15.2%

10) Maryland Terrapins

Record: 25-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 14.3%

11) Michigan State Spartans

Record: 27-6

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 13.6%

12) Arizona Wildcats

Record: 22-12

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 11.9%

13) Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 22-11

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 7.6%

14) Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 26-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 7.3%

15) Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 22-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 7.2%

16) Kansas Jayhawks

Record: 21-12

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 6.2%

17) Purdue Boilermakers

Record: 22-11

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 5.6%

18) UConn Huskies

Record: 23-10

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 4.9%

19) Clemson Tigers

Record: 27-6

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 4.6%

20) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 25-8

Conference: West Coast

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 4.1%

21) Marquette Golden Eagles

Record: 23-10

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 3.8%

22) Illinois Fighting Illini

Record: 21-12

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.5%

23) Missouri Tigers

Record: 22-11

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.3%

24) North Carolina Tar Heels

Record: 23-13

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.3%

25) Michigan Wolverines

Record: 25-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.3%

26) BYU Cougars

Record: 24-9

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 2.0%

27) UCLA Bruins

Record: 22-10

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.7%

28) Baylor Bears

Record: 19-14

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.6%

29) Creighton Bluejays

Record: 24-10

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.6%

30) St. Mary's Gaels

Record: 28-5

Conference: West Coast

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.3%

31) Louisville Cardinals

Record: 27-7

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.2%

32) Ole Miss Rebels

Record: 22-11

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.1%

33) Oregon Ducks

Record: 24-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 1.0%

34) Memphis Tigers

Record: 29-5

Conference: American

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.8%

35) VCU Rams

Record: 28-6

Conference: Atlantic-10

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.8%

36) Xavier Musketeers

Record: 22-11

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.8%

37) Colorado State Rams

Record: 25-9

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.5%

38) Arkansas Razorbacks

Record: 20-13

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.5%

39) Oklahoma Sooners

Record: 20-13

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.4%

40) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record: 21-12

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Final Four: 0.4%

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