Ranking the 40 Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams Based on ESPN’s Projections

40) Nebraska Cornhuskers

Record: 17-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 8.0%

2) Houston Cougars

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Record: 22-4

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 82.0%

3) Auburn Tigers

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Record: 23-2

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 79.7%

4) Tennessee Volunteers

Record: 21-5

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 65.9%

5) Florida Gators

Record: 23-3

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 65.0%

6) Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 21-4

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 64.0%

7) Iowa State Cyclones

Record: 21-5

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 62.9%

8) Arizona Wildcats

Record: 18-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 61.7%

9) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Record: 20-6

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 55.1%

10) Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 20-6

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 49.2%

11) Purdue Boilermakers

Record: 19-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 49.1%

12) Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 21-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 47.8%

13) Kansas Jayhawks

Record: 17-9

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 47.6%

14) Michigan State Spartans

Record: 21-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 46.7%

15) Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 17-8

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 44.8%

16) Maryland Terrapins

Record: 20-6

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 44.3%

17) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 20-7

Conference: West Coast

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 42.6%

18) St. John's Red Storm

Record: 22-4

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 40.6%

19) Marquette Golden Eagles

Record: 20-6

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 39.8%

20) Michigan Wolverines

Record: 20-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 36.4%

21) Clemson Tigers

Record: 21-5

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 35.4%

22) Illinois Fighting Illini

Record: 17-10

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 34.0%

23) Baylor Bears

Record: 16-10

Conference: Big 12

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 37.6%

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24) UConn Huskies

Record: 18-8

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 29.5%

25) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record: 19-7

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 26.6%

26) Creighton Bluejays

Record: 18-8

Conference: Big East

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 26.5%

27) UCLA Bruins

Record: 19-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 26.3%

28) Ole Miss Rebels

Record: 19-7

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 25.9%

29) Missouri Tigers

Record: 19-6

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 25.4%

30) Saint Mary's Gaels

Record: 23-4

Conference: West Coast

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 24.5%

31) Louisville Cardinals

Record: 20-6

Conference: ACC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 20.9%

32) BYU Cougars

Record: 18-8

Conference: Big 12 

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 18.5%

33) Oregon Ducks

Record: 18-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 14.2%

34) Ohio State Buckeyes

Record: 15-11

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 13.8%

35) Texas Longhorns

Record: 16-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 12.9%

36) Memphis Tigers

Record: 21-5

Conference: AAC

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 10.3%

37) Utah State Aggies

Record: 22-4

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 9.7%

38) VCU Rams

Record: 20-5

Conference: Atlantic 10

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 8.2%

39) New Mexico Lobos

Record: 22-4

Conference: Mountain west

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 8.1%

40) Nebraska Cornhuskers

Record: 17-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN's Chance to Reach Sweet 16: 8.0%