Ranking the 40 Most Likely Sweet 16 Teams Based on ESPN’s Projections

40) New Mexico Lobos

Record: 26-6

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 6.3%

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2) Houston Cougars

Record: 27-4

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 82.7%

3) Auburn Tigers

Record: 27-4

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 80.7%

4) Florida Gators

Record: 27-4

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 71.7%

5) Alabama Crimson Tide

Record: 24-7

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 70.3%

6) Tennessee Volunteers

Record: 25-6

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 69.9%

7) Texas Tech Red Raiders

Record: 25-7

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 67.9%

8) Iowa State Cyclones

Record: 24-9

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 66.2%

9) Michigan State Spartans

Record: 26-5

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 62.1%

10) Arizona Wildcats

Record: 21-11

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 61.4%

11) St. John's Red Storm

Record: 28-4

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 56.4%

12) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Record: 25-8

Conference: West Coast

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 56.2%

13) Kentucky Wildcats

Record: 22-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 54.2%

14) Maryland Terrapins

Record: 24-7

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 53.5%

15) Clemson Tigers

Record: 27-5

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 48.5%

16) Purdue Boilermakers

Record: 22-10

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 46.0%

17) Kansas Jayhawks

Record: 21-12

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 44.7%

18) Wisconsin Badgers

Record: 24-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 42.0%

19) Texas A&M Aggies

Record: 22-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 38.4%

20) Illinois Fighting Illini

Record: 21-11

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 37.2%

21) Marquette Golden Eagles

Record: 23-9

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 35.3%

22) BYU Cougars

Record: 24-8

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 34.6%

23) UConn Huskies

Record: 23-9

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 32.3%

24) UCLA Bruins

Record: 22-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 24.8%

25) Louisville Cardinals

Record: 26-6

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 24.2%

26) Missouri Tigers

Record: 22-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 21.3%

27) St. Mary's Gaels

Record: 28-5

Conference: West Coast

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 19.5%

28) Ole Miss Rebels

Record: 22-10

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 17.3%

29) Oregon Ducks

Record: 24-8

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 15.4%

30) Baylor Bears

Record: 19-14

Conference: Big 12

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 13.9%

31) Creighton Bluejays

Record: 23-9

Conference: Big East

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 13.1%

32) Michigan Wolverines

Record: 22-9

Conference: Big Ten

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 10.5%

33) Texas Longhorns

Record: 19-14

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 8.7%

34) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Record: 21-12

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 8.0%

35) Oklahoma Sooners

Record: 20-13

Conference: SEC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 7.6%

36) North Carolina Tar Heels

Record: 22-12

Conference: ACC

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 7.3%

37) Memphis Tigers

Record: 26-5

Conference: American

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 7.3%

38) VCU Rams

Record: 25-6

Conference: Atlantic-10

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 7.3%

39) Utah State Aggies

Record: 26-6

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 6.9%

40) New Mexico Lobos

Record: 26-6

Conference: Mountain West

ESPN Chance to Make Sweet 16: 6.3%

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