10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 4

College football is back! There are so many excellent matchups in Week 4. Which teams are potentially on upset watch? 

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1. Tulsa at Oklahoma State (-11.5) – Friday at 7:30 on ESPN

We have two data points for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. In the opening week, the Cowboys beat UT Martin in an uninspiring 27-7 performance. The following week, they were demolished embarrassingly by the Oregon Ducks by a score of 69-3. The Cowboys had a bye week to lick their wounds, and they now host Tulsa on Friday night. Tulsa is far from a good team, but what if Oklahoma State is on “quit watch" and Tulsa can take advantage by stunning the Cowboys in Stillwater and putting the final nail in the Mike Gundy era? Crazier things have happened.

2. Arkansas (-7.5) at Memphis – Saturday at Noon on ABC

I am a big fan of Taylen Green and the Arkansas Razorbacks offense. Green is in year two in the Bobby Petrino system and seems much more in command, and his dynamic physical gifts are shining through three weeks. That admiration does not mean this dangerous spot for Arkansas can be overlooked. Memphis has looked really good in all three of its games, and they are capable on both sides of the ball. This is a “letdown, look ahead sandwich" (credit to The Solid Verbal for the apt terminology) for Arkansas as they are coming off a heartbreaking defeat to Ole Miss and before they host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish next week in Fayetteville. The Hogs should be very careful.

3. Maryland at Wisconsin (-10.5) – Saturday at Noon on NBC

What has the Wisconsin Badgers shown that would make anyone comfortable betting on them as a 10.5-point favorite against a fellow Big Ten team? Wisconsin’s offense lacks explosiveness, and its defense was overwhelmed consistently against the Alabama Crimson Tide. There’s no shame in that, but the warning signs are there, particularly for the offense. They were poor against Miami (OH) and only scored 17 points, and the performance against Middle Tennessee was uninspiring. Maryland is not great, but they do have a promising freshman quarterback who could catch fire and score enough points to top the Badgers. This is a “better not lose" game for both embattled head coaches.

4. Auburn at Oklahoma (-7.5) – Saturday at 3:30 on ABC

This is one of the more intriguing games of the weekend as Hugh Freeze leads the 3-0 No. 22 Auburn Tigers to Norman to play the #11 Oklahoma Sooners. The subplot involves Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold. The former blue-chip recruit was previously the quarterback for the Sooners, and he now returns to Norman as the leader of a dominant rushing attack with a lot of momentum. To be clear, I think Oklahoma wins this game. Still, the Tigers have a lot of athleticism and are very capable of pulling off this upset, particularly if Oklahoma’s special teams miscues continue. 

5. North Carolina at Central Florida (-6.5) – Saturday at 3:30 on FOX

The North Carolina Tar Heels were, very publicly, dominated by the TCU Horned Frogs in front of a big audience in the season’s opening week. They were understandably mocked and disregarded. Since that game, UNC beat Charlotte 20-3 and dispatched Richmond 41-6. They now play at Central Florida as underdogs. UCF was very fortunate to beat Jacksonville State and then throttled North Carolina A&T. Still, the Tar Heels have shown themselves to be, at minimum, competent and perhaps even strong on defense. UCF is an unknown commodity that could easily get upset here.

6. Troy at Buffalo (-6.5) – Saturday at 3:30 on ESPN+

The Troy Trojans led Clemson 16-0 before giving up 27 unanswered points and falling to the Tigers. They followed that up with a disappointing effort against another Tiger team, Memphis, and they enter this game at 1-2. Buffalo is 2-1, but last weekend’s contest felt more like a loss than a win as they gave up 28 points and barely escaped Kent State. The Golden Flashes gained 423 yards and had more than 37 minutes of possession in the game. Troy is better than Kent State, and a similar performance from Buffalo will get them beat.

7. South Carolina at Missouri (-10.5) – Saturday at 7:00 on ESPN

The South Carolina Gamecocks lost quarterback LaNorris Sellers and then got thoroughly outplayed by the Vanderbilt Commodores last Saturday night in Columbia. Sellers is now uncertain for the game against Missouri, and this has gone from a “toss-up" contest to a game in which more than ten points favor Missouri. The Tigers are playing very well, but they have not played a team with the same kind of athletes they have on the lines of scrimmage. Kansas scored 31 points on Missouri, and if Sellers plays and is unleashed as a runner, South Carolina has the talent to make this very interesting.

8. Florida at Miami (-7.5) – Saturday at 7:30 on ABC

Everything about this game screams out for a Miami blowout. The Florida Gators have looked terrible on offense the past two weeks, losing to South Florida and turning it over five times in a loss to LSU. The calls for the firing of head coach Billy Napier have intensified and reached a fever pitch. So why are the Miami Hurricanes only favored by a little more than a touchdown? That’s a big warning that this rivalry game might have some unexpected twists and turns ahead.

9. BYU Cougars (-6.5) at East Carolina Pirates – Saturday at 7:30 on ESPN2

The BYU Cougars are 2-0 with easy wins over Portland State and Stanford. They now face a slightly new challenge as they travel for the first time. Freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier will be on the road, and the East Carolina crowd should be pretty fired up to get a Big 12 squad on their home field. This game comes after ECU blew out Coastal Carolina by the score of 38-0, and they played North Carolina State very tough in the season’s opening week in Raleigh, so the Pirates are really dangerous in this spot.

10. Wyoming at Colorado (-13.5) – Saturday at 10:15 on ESPN

This one is a real long shot because Wyoming is, to put it bluntly, just not very good. The Cowboys lost 31-6 to Utah last week and were not very good in an opening week victory against Akron (10-0). That said, Colorado does not appear worthy of being a heavy favorite against anyone. The Buffaloes are 1-2 with losses to Georgia Tech, despite the Yellow Jackets having three first-quarter turnovers, and an ugly loss at Houston last week. Colorado does not have any answers at quarterback and could get roped into a slog against Wyoming.

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