10 Potential Upsets for College Football Week 5

College football is back! There are so many excellent matchups in Week 5 with an absolutely loaded slate. Which teams are potentially on upset watch? 

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1. Florida State (-7.5) at Virginia – Friday at 7:00

The Florida State Seminoles have been fantastic thus far and have climbed the polls. The Seminoles are now ranked eighth nationally, but they hit the road for the first time, travelling to take on an interesting University of Virginia team. UVA is 3-1 and 3-0 at home, and they have scored at least 48 points in each of their three home games. This line is shorter than I’d expected, which sets off some alarm bells for FSU.

2. USC (-6.5) at Illinois – Saturday at Noon

Everyone saw the Illinois Fighting Illini exposed on national television as they were obliterated by the Indiana Hoosiers 63-10. The natural next move is to take the USC Trojans as Lincoln Riley’s undefeated team travels to Illinois to play the Fighting Illini in Champaign as touchdown favorites. However, USC doesn’t have the same level of defensive line that IU has, so Luke Altmyer might have some time to throw, and the Illini will be absolutely desperate to put the season back on track. Add to that the 9:00 am kickoff time for the USC players, and the Trojans need to be very aware of the potential for an upset here.

3. Indiana (-7) at Iowa – Saturday at 3:30

The Indiana Hoosiers defeated the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday night in Bloomington, improving to 4-0 on the season. IU now plays on the road for the first time, presenting a completely new challenge for the Hoosiers. Iowa is going to do whatever it can to keep IU’s explosive offense on the sidelines and control the tempo, and Kinnick Stadium is a difficult place to play. In fact, IU has lost its last four games in Iowa City, doing so by an average of 20.5 points per game. Of course, it must be said that Curt Cignetti was not coaching IU for any of those contests.

4. Cal at Boston College (-6.5) – Saturday at 3:30

Everything went wrong for the Cal Golden Bears last weekend. Following an impressive 3-0 start, Cal fell behind early against San Diego State and never got on track, losing to the Aztecs 34-0. There might be some value now as they travel cross-country to attempt to rebound with a game as one-touchdown underdogs at Boston College. The Eagles are the home team, but they have already suffered defeats to Michigan State and a particularly ugly loss at Stanford. Cal is much better than Stanford, and if they can manage the travel, the Golden Bears could be a live dog.

5. Ohio State (-8.5) at Washington – Saturday at 3:30

The Washington Huskies probably don’t have a defense strong enough to go toe-to-toe with the Ohio State Buckeyes for 60 minutes. Still, the rush defense is only allowing 2.38 yards per attempt, and they could make OSU at least somewhat one-dimensional. If they can slow down the Buckeyes at all, the Huskies do have an offense that can hang around. UW is scoring 55.7 points per game, and quarterback Demond Williams is ready for his breakout star performance with a huge home game in Seattle.

6. Utah (-10.5) at West Virginia – Saturday at 3:30

The Utah Utes were expected to beat Texas Tech at home and take the mantle as the clear favorite in the Big 12. Instead, the offense looked dreadful, and Utah lost its fifth straight conference home game, now just 1-8 in its last nine Big 12 contests. That isn’t very good, and the Utes now travel cross-country to play Rich Rodriguez and the West Virginia Mountaineers. WVU is 2-2 after getting blown out at Kansas, but they are 2-0 in Morgantown, and I think that moves to 3-0 with a surprise upset of Utah on Saturday.

7. UCLA at Northwestern (-6.5) – Saturday at 3:30

UCLA is dreadful. They are terrible on both lines of scrimmage and have not been able to create anything positive on offense or defense. However, Northwestern is not really much better. This is a matchup of two of the worst teams in any power conference, and the Bruins might get a bump from the coaching change and coming off a bye week.

8. Hawaii at Air Force (-6.5) – Saturday at 4:00

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors make the long trip to the mainland to play Air Force this Saturday. They are 3-2 with wins over Stanford, Sam Houston, and Portland State, and are coming off a close home defeat to Fresno State. Hawaii would have won that game if not for three costly turnovers, and they probably would have been favored if they had entered this contest at 4-1. The Rainbow Warriors have the best quarterback in this game, and their defense is actually pretty capable against the run. If they can hold up against the run, Hawaii wins this outright.

9. Tennessee (-7.5) at Mississippi State – Saturday at 4:15

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have shown significant improvement, and Jeff Lebby has the program moving in the right direction. However, I believe the Tennessee Volunteers are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Joey Aguilar has been terrific, and the vertical passing game for the Volunteers is miles ahead of what it was at any point in 2024. The Vols don’t run it quite as well as you’d like, and Mississippi State has been pretty good against the pass this season. Starkville can be a difficult place to play, and Tennessee’s defense did give up 24 points to UAB. Mississippi State probably doesn’t have the firepower to keep u,p but Tennessee should be wary.

10. Arizona at Iowa State (-6.5) – Saturday at 7:00

Very quietly, the Arizona Wildcats are 3-0 with wins over Hawaii, Weber State, and Kansas State. The defense has been the story as they have not surrendered more than 17 points in any game, and Noah Fifita looks much more comfortable in year two in this offensive system. The Wildcats are running the ball really well, and Iowa State has struggled to pull away from any team they have played with a pulse. This is a tough trip to make, but Arizona is playing with confidence and has a real shot to win this one outright.

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