College Football Week 11 Picks: Friday Night Lights Best Bets

This is it. The final month of the college football regular season. Teams are gearing up for playoff pushes, conference championship games, and just trying to stay bowl eligible.

We’ve got a trio of plays lined up for Week 11’s Friday night slate!

Where to Watch Tulane Green Wave vs (22) Memphis Tigers

Stadium: Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Location: Memphis, TN
Where to Watch: ESPN
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Spread: MEM -3.5 | Total: 54.5
Moneyline: MEM -170 | TULN +145

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The Memphis Tigers have the inside track for the Group of Five berth in the College Football Playoff. They’re two weeks removed from a monumental upset win over South Florida, and need to keep their foot on the pedal over the final few weeks of the season. Casual observers may dismiss the Tulane Green Wave’s chances on Friday night, but we expect a heavyweight bout at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.

Tulane has one of the most systematic offenses in the country. They don’t excel in any particular facet, but the Green Wave can methodically wear opponents down. Through eight games, they rank 57th in total offense, putting up 227.2 passing and 175.1 rushing yards per game. Moreover, Tulane has been one of the best teams at converting third downs, moving the sticks 45.0% of the time. Expect them to execute against a Tigers’ defense that has given up 1,246 yards over their last three games versus UAB, South Florida, and Rice.

At the same time, Memphis’ scoring proficiency doesn’t match its offensive production. The AAC frontrunners have put up 96 points over their last three games, despite eroding offensive metrics. Across that three-game stretch, the Tigers are averaging 389.0 yards per game, while falling below 362 yards in two of three. That puts them on an inevitable path with regression, as scoring balances with production over their coming games.

Bettors will flock toward the ranked team in this spot, but we give Tulane a puncher’s chance of pulling off the outright upset. Still, we’re playing it safe and are backing the Green Wave as +3.5 road dogs.

Best Bet: Tulane +3.5

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Where to Watch Houston Cougars vs UCF Knights

Stadium: Acrisure Bounce House
Location: Orlando, FL
Where to Watch: FOX Sports 1
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Spread: HOU -1.5 | Total: 47.5
Moneyline: HOU -110 | UCF -110

The Houston Cougars’ perceived betting value hasn’t been lower this season. Formerly a top contender in the Big 12, Houston suffered a good ol’ fashioned ass whoopin’ at the hands of West Virginia last week. Despite the setback, the Cougars are loaded with potential on both sides of the football, advantages they can use to cash as road chalk versus the UCF Knights in Week 11.

The Cougars run a competent offense, but their bread and butter is elite defense. Granted, they abandoned their standard against the Mountaineers, but the Cougars should get back on track against the Knights on Friday night. Houston has hamstrung opponents this season, limiting its foes to just 190.4 passing yards per game. While they’ve been slightly less effective against the run, they’re still holding opponents to 134.3 rushing yards, ranking in the top 50 in the country.

UCF will have a hard time breaking through Houston’s defensive clutches. This is a team that put up three points on 225 yards against the Baylor Bears’ porous defense last time out. More concerning, they’ve been held to 20 or fewer points in three of their previous four games, averaging 19.8 points per game.

The Knights’ offensive woes are unlikely to improve against a Houston squad with championship aspirations. We expect UCF to put up a fight, but it still won’t be enough to secure a victory over the Cougars.

Best Bet: Houston -110

Where to Watch Northwestern Wildcats vs (19) USC Trojans

Stadium: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Where to Watch: FOX
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Spread: USC -14.5 | Total: 51.5
Moneyline: USC -800 | NW +500

For the first time in a while, we’re taking the USC Trojans seriously. The Big Ten competitors have emerged as a legitimate Top 25 threat and are in the mix for a potential berth in the conference championship game. Still, this is a new Northwestern Wildcats team that needs to be taken seriously. USC may be tempted to ease up at home against a seemingly weaker opponent, but the Trojans can’t afford to make any mistakes versus the Wildcats.

Winners of four of their last five, Northwestern needs just one win to become bowl eligible for just the second time since 2020. The Wildcats have ratcheted up the defensive intensity, which will be crucial to limiting USC’s offensive assault. Based on what we’ve seen more recently, the Wildcats will be up to the task. They’ve held all but one of their last five opponents to 21 points or fewer, as evidenced by their 291.8 yards allowed per game.

The Trojans’ probability of success is hampered by diminished offensive output. Over its past two outings, USC has been held to a combined 733 yards and 45 points. Turnovers have been an issue, which plays into one of Northwestern’s most unassuming strengths. The Wildcats have forced seven turnovers across their previous three contests, coinciding with three USC interceptions and a fumble over their last two.

USC can’t take anything for granted on Friday. Northwestern is one of the premier defensive teams in the country, and the Wildcats will be ready to stymie the Trojans’ offense. It won’t be enough to win outright, but Northwestern is the right side to be on against the spread.

Best Bet: Northwestern +14.5