CFP First Round: (9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (8) Oklahoma Sooners Best Bets
Grant White
Host · Writer
The College Football Playoff is here! After 15 grueling weeks, the 12-team field has been set. The Oklahoma Sooners and Alabama Crimson Tide kick off the first round with an all-SEC showdown in Norman.
Check out what best bets we’re targeting between the Sooners and Crimson Tide!
Where to Watch (9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (8) Oklahoma Sooners
- Stadium: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium
- Location: Norman, OK
- Where to Watch: ABC
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
(9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (8) Oklahoma Sooners Betting Odds
- Spread: OKLA -1.5 (-105) | ALA +1.5 (-115)
- Total: Over 40.5 (-115) | Under (-105)
- Moneyline: OKLA -112 | ALA -104
(9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (8) Oklahoma Sooners Kalshi Odds
- Chance: OKLA 51% | ALA 49%
- Spread: ALA -2.5 Yes 45¢ | No 56¢
- Total: Over 40.5 Yes 52¢ | No 49¢
For the second time this season, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners will battle it out on the gridiron. Only this time, the stakes have never been higher. These SEC foes meet in the first round of the College Football Playoff for the right to continue their march to the National Championship. Oklahoma robbed the Crimson Tide of victory in Tuscaloosa, and we expect Alabama to return the favor at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.
Oklahoma was clearly outmatched in its Week 12 clash versus Bama. The Sooners mustered just 212 yards of total offense. They looked equally uncomfortable on the ground and in the air, rushing for just 74 yards and adding a paltry 138 passing yards. More concerningly, they let the Crimson Tide go off for 406 total yards, with 326 of those coming via the pass.
Therein lies the Sooners’ disadvantage. While they’ve stood up well to the pass at times this season, we’ve also seen their secondary get exposed. Bama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss all threw for at least 315 yards against Oklahoma, yielding a disastrous average of 344.7 yards per game. That plays into Bama’s passing proclivity, as the ninth-ranked squad averaged 259.8 passing yards per game while turning to its aerial assault 55.0% of the time.
Finally, Oklahoma doesn’t possess the offensive wherewithal to keep pace with the Crimson Tide. The 10-2 contenders ranked 91st in total offense this season, resulting in 26.4 points per game (77th) and a 38.6% third-down conversion rate (80th).
This is Alabama’s game to lose. Winning on the road is no easy feat, but under no circumstances should they be underdogs in this contest. We’re taking a firm stance on the Crimson Tide to upset the Sooners in Norman.
Best Bet: Alabama -104
Gone are the days when Alabama would rely on its punishing run game to turn the tide. Under Kalen DeBoer, this team has transformed into a pass-first program. They will use that to their advantage as they poke holes in Oklahoma’s pass defense from start to finish. With that, we’re betting Ty Simpson reaches at least 250 passing yards in this CFP showdown.
While Alabama has turned to the pass more frequently throughout the season, we’ve seen them ratchet that number higher over the latter stages of the campaign. Over the last three games, Bama has thrown the ball 59.2% of the time on offense. Included in that sample is their convincing win over FCS Eastern Illinois, in which they turned to backups and the run game.
As expected, that pass-heavy approach is reflected in Simpson’s metrics. Against the last three FBS opponents, the Crimson Tide quarterback has attempted no fewer than 35 pass attempts. With more than 250 pass yards in four of his previous six full-game appearances, Simpson can be counted on to deliver when Alabama needs him most.
Simpson has already shredded this defense once, and he’ll have no problem replicating that success in Norman. Oklahoma has been exposed on defense several times this year, including in the first meeting between these teams back in Week 12. Considering their pass-first offense, reaching 250 passing yards should be nothing more than a formality for Simpson.
Best Bet: Ty Simpson to Record 250+ Passing Yards +116
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College Football Playoff First Round: (9) Alabama Crimson Tide vs (8) Oklahoma Sooners Best Bets
- Alabama -104
- Ty Simpson to Record 250+ Passing Yards +116
We’re ready for whatever mayhem the College Football Playoff brings this season. We’re taking Alabama to pull off the upset in this opening round game, adding Ty Simpson to eclipse 250 passing yards in this winner-take-all battle.
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