Big Ten CFP Picks: Oregon vs James Madison Prediction | College Football Playoff
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
We got off to a good start to B1G Bets Bowl season with the Washington Huskies covering against the Boise State Broncos last Saturday night. Back in the same time slot, we have another Big Ten team from the great northwest matched up against a Group of Five conference champ. The 5-seed Oregon Ducks host the Sun Belt winner, the 12-seed James Madison Dukes, in a College Football Playoff first-round matchup, with the winner moving on to the quarterfinals to take on the 4-seed Texas Tech.
We’ll be back next week with more Big Ten bowl picks for the weekend.
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Last Week: 1-0 (+1.5 UNITS) | Overall: 49-47 (+2 UNITS)
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Where to College Football Playoff: James Madison @ Oregon
- Stadium: Autzen Stadium
- Location: Eugene, OR
- Where to Watch: TNT
- Date: December 20, 2025
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
CFP: James Madison @ Oregon Betting Odds
- Spread: Oregon -20.5 (-115)
- Total: Over 45.5 (-113) | Under (-108)
- Moneyline: Washington -1800 | James Madison +1000
CFP: James Madison @ Oregon Kalshi Odds
- Chance: James Madison 9% | Oregon 91%
- Spread: Oregon -20.5 Yes 53¢ | No 50¢
- Total: Over 47.5 Yes 48¢ | No 54¢
Big Ten Bowl Game College Football Picks
NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 31-29 (+1 UNIT)
OREGON -20.5 James Madison (@BetMGM)
While I don’t have concerns about James Madison’s health/safety going to their CFP matchup against Oregon, I don’t see how the Dukes could make this a game.
At home, the Ducks have been a juggernaut. They are 5-2 ATS in Autzen Stadium, including 3-0 against non-Big Ten teams. Their only ATS defeats in Eugene came against No. 1 Indiana and versus Wisconsin in an absolute monsoon. With projected winds of just 4.5 MPH, the conditions should be just right for the home team.
In their five home covers, Dan Lanning’s team has won by 46 points versus Montana State, 66 versus Oklahoma State, 34 versus Oregon State, and 29 over Minnesota. They are no strangers to blowouts with six wins by 20+ points. Lanning is not quite Curt Cignetti, but he’s close. He wins the games he’s supposed to, usually by a comfortable margin. When favored by at least 18 points, Oregon is also 5-2 ATS. Their losses came at Northwestern in a game where they led 34-0 midway through the fourth quarter before a backdoor cover beat them (80-yard TD run in the final two minutes), and the aforementioned Wisconsin game.
Considering JMU’s competition—121st in strength of schedule compared to Oregon at 16th in SOS—it’s challenging to compare these teams.
The best back the Dukes have faced this year is Louisville’s Isaac Brown, who gashed them for 8.7 yards per carry. The Ducks are blessed with maybe the best three-headed backfield in college football, led by Noah Whittington (774 yards, 6.9 YPC, 6 TDs). He’s complemented by two of the best freshman runners in the nation in the speedy Dierre Hill Jr. (481 yards, 8.2 YPC, 4 TDs), who will remind you of the Chip Kelly days, and Jordon Davison (535 yards, 6.1 YPC, 13 TDs), one of the best short-yardage/goal-line rushers. This trio will create explosives and move the chains.
Looking at James Madison’s missed tackle rate (87th nationally) has me believing Oregon will have its way on the ground.
The head of the snake is Dante Moore (2,733 yards, 72.5%, 8.7 YPA, 24 TDs). The junior signal caller is accurate, makes good decisions, and has the arm talent to push the ball downfield. When healthy, Moore has six wide receivers and tight ends with at least 23 receptions who average 12+ yards per catch to choose from.
They beat (and covered) their final two games against USC and at Washington without starting wideouts, freshman phenom Dakorien Moore and sixth-year senior Gary Bryant, their most experienced pass catcher. Moore and Bryant are questionable (game-time decisions). Still, Malik Benson and Jeremiah McClellan stepped up in their absence, with projected first-round pick Kenyon Sadiq and Jamari Johnson as an elite one-two punch at tight end. We’d love it if Moore and Bryant suit up, but are OK if they sit out another game.
Putting up points will be challenging for JMU. In 12 FCS games, the Sun Belt champs played defenses ranked 89th or worse in SP+ nine times, including seven matches against defenses ranked in the bottom 20 (117th or worse). Oregon is fifth, with its defense arguably the strongest unit, ranked fifth in EPA, tenth in points per drive, and 14th in success rate.
The Big Ten program has allowed 16 points or fewer nine times in 12 games, including 13 points or fewer five times in their home games against teams not named Indiana or USC.
JMU lacks the passing offense that can really challenge Oregon on the perimeter or down the field. Up the middle, the Ducks have 300-pounders Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington playing at a high level, backed up by hard-hitting linebacker Bryce Boettcher (104 tackles) and one of the top safeties in Dillon Thieneman.
Special teams also favor the home team.
I know some are trying to spin the narrative that the Ducks could be looking ahead to their next game, but Lanning isn’t wired that way, is he? I’m sure he will hold some things back, but not everything. Two seasons ago, they lost in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a chance to make the four-team playoff. Less than a year ago, Oregon was embarrassed as the No. 1 seed on New Year’s Day. Don’t you believe this program is hungry for a big win? I know it’s JMU, but it’s their first playoff game in over a decade and their first ever at home. It’s hard not to imagine them wanting to impress a rabid crowd in Autzen on their way to the quarterfinals.
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