CFP Playoff First Round Games: Saturday Best Bets and Predictions

It’s the beginning of the end for the 2025-26 College Football season. Bowl season is upon us, and we’ll spend the next few weeks embracing the final snaps of the season.

Check out what bets we’re targeting in these first-round College Football Playoff matchups!

Where to Watch (10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (7) Texas A&M Aggies

Stadium: Kyle Field
Location: College Station, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN, ABC
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET

(10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (7) Texas A&M Aggies Betting Odds

Spread: MIA +3.5 (-122) | TA&M -3.5 (+100)
Total: Over 48.5 (-104) | Under (-118)
Moneyline: MIA +130 | TA&M -154

(10) Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs (7) Texas A&M Aggies Kalshi Odds

Chance: MIA 40% | TA&M 60%
Spread: TA&M -3.5 Yes 48¢ | No 53¢
Total: Over 48.5 Yes 48¢ | No 53¢

Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.

The Texas A&M Aggies are hoping that their Week 14 loss to Texas isn’t a sign of things to come. The formerly second-ranked Aggies will try to get back to their winning ways against the Miami Hurricanes in the first round of the College Football Playoff.

Texas A&M executed flawlessly on both sides of the ball throughout the campaign. Still, we have reservations about their ability to break free against a stout Hurricanes’ defense. Miami was wildly successful on defense, limiting opponents to just 277.8 yards and 13.8 points per game this season. Included in that was an even more impressive four-game stretch to close out the season, in which they held opponents to a combined 41 points and 1,046 yards.

At the same time, Miami’s offense is more than capable of poking holes in Texas A&M’s defense. The Aggies have been caught off guard in each of their last two games, giving up 218 rushing yards to Texas last time out and 267 passing yards to South Carolina in their preceding FBS game. Miami has playmakers at every position on offense, and it can keep the Aggies guessing on Saturday afternoon.

Miami is primed for an upset. While there is value on the moneyline, we’re taking the Hurricanes to cover the spread on the other side of a key number.

Best Bet: Miami +3.5 -122

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Where to Watch (20) Tulane Green Wave vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels

Stadium: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Location: Oxford, MS
Where to Watch: ESPN, ABC
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

(20) Tulane Green Wave vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels Betting Odds

Spread: TULN +17.5 (-118) | MISS -17.5 (-104)
Total: Over 57.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: TULN +610 | MISS -900

(20) Tulane Green Wave vs (6) Ole Miss Rebels Kalshi Odds

Chance: TULN 13% | MISS 87%
Spread: MISS -17.5 Yes 49¢ | No 53¢
Total: Over 56.5 Yes 54¢ | No 48¢

In another repeat matchup from earlier this season, the Tulane Green Wave travel to Oxford for their inaugural playoff game versus the Ole Miss Rebels. Ole Miss trounced the Group of Five squad earlier in the season, but the Green Wave will be ready to respond in this win-or-go-home clash.

Tulane operates efficiently on both sides of the ball, and we’ve seen the Green Wave play to their strengths based on the matchup. At times, they lean into their ground game to control the clock and grind out wins. Other times, they turn to their passing attack to keep opponents back-pedaling. Throughout those games, their defense has been a hallmark of their success. Tulane has contained Northwestern, Duke, and North Texas, earning a reputation for hunkering down when it needs to. Expect a fierce defensive effort when they take to the field in Oxford.

At the same time, we’ve seen a less efficient offense from the Rebels over the final month of the campaign. They put up below-average points in three of their last five, coinciding with a less effective defense. Mississippi State hung 440 yards on Ole Miss, translating that production to just 19 points. Likewise, Florida gave Ole Miss more than it could handle. The Gators led until the fourth quarter, when the Rebels scored 14 to secure the win.

Neither team can afford to make mistakes in this College Football Playoff matchup. In that regard, we have immense faith in Tulane to put its best foot forward. Ole Miss will almost certainly leave with the win, but we don’t expect the Rebels to cover the number at home.

Where to Watch (24) James Madison Dukes vs (5) Oregon Ducks

Stadium: Autzen Stadium
Location: Eugene, OR
Where to Watch: ESPN, ABC
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

(24) James Madison Dukes vs (5) Oregon Ducks Betting Odds

Spread: JMU +20.5 (-102) | ORE -20.5 (-120)
Total: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
Moneyline: JMU +1200 | ORE -2500

(24) James Madison Dukes vs (5) Oregon Ducks Kalshi Odds

Chance: JMU 9% | ORE 91%
Spread: ORE -20.5 Yes 52¢ | No 51¢
Total: Over 47.5 Yes 48¢ | No 55¢

These first-round matchups conclude with another Power Four versus Group of Five showdown. The James Madison Dukes snagged the final playoff berth and will travel to Eugene for a date with the fifth-ranked Oregon Ducks. The betting market is bullish on the Ducks, a position we’ll validate with our analysis.

Once an offense-first team, the Ducks have evolved into a defensive powerhouse in 2025. Taking on elite competition in the Big Ten, Oregon ranks fourth in total and eighth in scoring defense, holding opponents to 251.6 yards and 14.8 points per game. That transformation hasn’t come at the expense of their offense, as the Ducks still managed over 465 yards per game while punching through some stout defensive units.

James Madison made short work of its Sun Belt competitors, but the Dukes face a new challenge in breaking through the Ducks’ defensive fortress. The Sun Belt Champs needed 14 fourth-quarter points to get past Troy in Week 15 and still didn’t come close to covering the -24.5 spread. That unfortunate record dates back even further, with the Dukes going 1-3 against the spread over the final month of the campaign.

The Dukes rely almost exclusively on their run game to move the chains. Nearly 55% of their offensive production came on the ground, and they will be running into the strength of Oregon’s defense. Without a passing attack to keep pace, we predict that the Ducks will fly away with this one.

Best Bet: Oregon -20.5 -120