Big Ten Week 11 Expert Picks and Best Bets For Friday’s & Saturday’s Action

We’re in the final month of the College Football season with four Saturdays remaining. Let’s appreciate them all. Week 11 features seven Big Ten matchups, starting with Friday Night Lights as No. 19 USC hosts Northwestern. The Trojans look to keep their playoff hopes alive, as do No. 23 Washington and No. 20 Iowa. The Hawkeyes host No. 9 Oregon in the game of the week in the Big Ten with CFP implications for both sides.

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top College Football Picks and College Football Player Prop Picks weekly!

Last Week: 4-4 (EVEN) | Overall: 34-29 (+ 3 UNITS)

Not So B1G Bets: 23-19 (+2 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 10-9 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 1-1 (EVEN) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (EVEN)

ATS Bets: 15-17 (-2 UNITS) | Team Totals: 17-7 (+7.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 2-5 (-2.5 UNITS)

Big Ten Week 11 College Football Picks

NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 3-2 | Season: 23-19 (+2 UNITS)

IOWA +6.5 Oregon (@DraftKings)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: CBS

I’m a little uneasy about so many being on Iowa, but we have to push aside that negative thinking. Is Oregon overrated? Underrated? I’m not sure, but they are damn good, ranked third in net points/drive and sixth in EPA margin. The Hawkeyes aren’t far behind, 14th in net points/drive and 20th in EPA margin.

Iowa still has an elite defense, and the offense is improved. The key here is their ability to run the football. The Hawkeyes might have the best offensive line in the country. That allows them to rush very effectively, ranked 16th in success rate. They have a deep stable of runners with five backs who have carried the ball at least 25 times. Their top three, led by Kamari Moulton (435 yards in six games), all average at least 5.3 YPC. Mouton has picked up 75+ yards in four straight despite facing some good defenses (Indiana, Wisconsin, Penn State, Minnesota).

In addition to the O-line, the key might be dual-threat QB Mark Gronowski, who hasn’t transformed Iowa’s passing offense as some predicted, but he’s made a significant impact with his legs. His 313 rushing yards are second on the team, and his 11 rushing touchdowns rank fifth in the country. He leads the B1G with eight rushing touchdowns in conference play. First downs and touchdowns are why the Hawkeyes rank eighth in QB-designed runs EPA, a weakness of Oregon’s defense (132nd).

Previous Iowa teams couldn’t hang with top-10 caliber opponents because the offense was that bad. They couldn’t hold onto the football, and the defense would eventually break. In a 20-15 home loss to Indiana earlier this season, the Hawkeyes showed this year’s squad is different. The key to that cover was that Iowa ran 69 plays to 62 and won the time-of-possession battle, 32:42 to 27:18.

It’s that ability to play complementary football—strong defense, special teams, and a running game — that will allow Iowa to keep this one close in Kinnick.

With one win over an FBS team with a winning record (Northwestern), the Ducks have been a bit of a bully this season. Another thing we learned when the Hawkeyes hosted the Hoosiers is that they won’t be bullied, especially at home.

One more factor to consider is the weather. It’s expected to be cold, rainy, and a little windy. Yes, I’m aware that it’s not always 70 degrees and sunny in Eugene, but clearly, if weather plays a role, it will likely impact Oregon more. This applies to the total as well.

IOWA-Oregon UNDER 42.5 (@FanDuel)

In addition to taking the points with Iowa, I like the under. As I’ve said many times before, any bet on Iowa is a bet on their defense. They’re sixth in points per drive, fifth in EPA, and 22nd in success rate.

Two big keys to slowing down the Ducks are their strong defensive line and the ability to limit big plays. The Hawkeyes are eighth in yards before contact and fourth in yards after the catch. They are tied for the fewest plays of 10+ yards allowed in the country, and in the top four for plays of 20+, 30+, and 40+ yards, while allowing no plays of 50+ yards on the season.

Oregon has scored at least 34 points in five games. However, at Penn State, they managed just 17 points in regulation. Against Indiana, the Ducks scored a season-low 20 points, which included a pick-six. Against teams they haven’t been able to push around easily, the offense has looked different. Dante Moore has also seen a drop-off in October after a Heisman-esque September, as his completion percentage (73.9% –> 65.2%), yards per pass (9.0–> 8.1), TD passes (11–> 5), INTs (1–> 3), and sacks (1–> 8) have all worsened.

While Iowa’s offense is improved, it’s still not very good, and Oregon’s defense is. They’re seventh in points per drive, seventh in EPA, and 18th in success rate. Stout in the trenches, it’s a big physical defensive line, similar to Iowa’s. They’re tough to run on and are ranked 17th in pressure rate. The secondary has also come together very well and is third in yards after the catch.

If the Ducks end up getting upset, it probably won’t be because of the defense. A low-scoring game goes hand-in-hand with taking the points on Saturday.

These defenses are elite: both rank in the top ten in scoring defense, yards per game, passing yards per game, passing yards per attempt, and opposing QB rating.

Washington-WISCONSIN UNDER 44.5 (@DraftKings)

Time: 4:30 PM | TV: BTN

Wisconsin’s offense is the worst in the Big Ten, ranked 135th in yards per play, 129th in points per drive, 132nd in quality drive rate, 116th in success rate, and 108th in EPA.

When you think of the Badgers, most people go to the offensive line. This unit has not lived up to the program’s pedigree. In terms of run blocking, they are 95th in yards before contact and 132nd in pressure rate. The running game is nearly non-existent, as they don’t have backs who can break tackles or make defenders miss.

The quarterback play has also been sorely lacking, as they’re expected to turn back to Danny O’Neil, who is both indecisive and doesn’t protect the football. We could also see their true freshman quarterback. In most offensive categories, whether it’s counting numbers like yards per attempt (120th) or advanced metrics such as yards after contact (123rd), Wisconsin is outside the top 100.

In Big Ten play, the Badgers have scored 27 points. That’s the total in five games. They’ve scored seven points in the past three games. They’ve scored four touchdowns on 63 drives against Power Four defenses. It’s as inept an offense as we’ve seen in the Big Ten.

Washington’s defense has been pretty good this season, ranked 42nd in yards per play and in EPA. It’s not a perfect unit, but on a play-by-play basis, it’s not easy to move the ball against them. They’re 19th in rushing yards per game and 36th in yards per carry, as well as 14th in yards per completion and 35th in yards per attempt.

Washington’s offense has been excellent this season; however, most of its production has come at home. They are also a bad road team ATS (which is why we can’t lay the points), especially when traveling multiple time zones, mainly because of the diminished offense.

Let’s look at their last four Big Ten games (throwing out their B1G opener versus OSU): They scored 80 points at home against Rutgers and Illinois, compared to 31 points at Maryland and Michigan on the road. Both of their B1G road games have gone under, as have all five of Wisconsin’s Big Ten games.

The Badgers have good football players on defense, so considering Washington’s inability to put up gaudy numbers in Big Ten road games in the eastern/central time zone going back to last season—88 points in seven games (12.6 PPG)—I expect Wisconsin to be able to slow them down.

This is another game where the weather (cold, windy, rainy) could make an impact.

UCLA +1.5 Nebraska (@DraftKings)

Time: 9:00 PM | TV: FOX

There are a few reasons I’m on UCLA hosting Nebraska on Saturday night.

The biggest is no Dylan Raiola. As you may know by now, I’m not his biggest fan, but that’s in relation to hype and expectations. He’s not a bad quarterback.

With Raiola last week, the Huskers might have been on their way to getting their first ranked win in forever. Without Raiola, Nebraska managed 113 yards and averaged 4.35 yards per play on its final four possessions, which is what Wisconsin averages. True freshman TJ Lateef was absolutely overwhelmed and put up a stat line that looks made up: 5 of 7 passing for 7 yards (1.0 yards per pass). He did have an 11-yard completion, but you get the picture.

It was one read and out. This offense will be severely limited, and they’re at less than 100 percent along the offensive line. This will be Lateef’s first start coming on the road, off a disappointing loss, and with the specter of a potential 6-6 season (after a 6-2 start) on the horizon.

UCLA’s defense has been sound in tackling, especially against the run: 33rd in yards after contact and 12th in missed tackle rate.

Offensively, the Bruins can attack Nebraska’s weakness, a rush defense that’s 107th in EPA and 84th in success rate. This leads us to one of the most significant mismatches of Week 11, per @CFB_Data. UCLA is 14th in explosive rush rate, while the Huskers are 119th defensively in that category. It’s how they win.

Whether or not you buy into the multiple time zone travel—I do to some extent, more for some teams than others—since getting smoked by Indiana last season, the Bruins have been an unwelcoming host. UCLA covered against Minnesota, upset Iowa as a six-point underdog, upset Penn State as a 25.5-point underdog, and beat Maryland. It hasn’t been easy for traditional Big Ten programs to travel to LA.

On the road this season, the Huskers are 1-1 and 0-2 ATS. They are 1-4-1 ATS in six B1G games so far. Under Matt Rhule, Nebraska is 4-6-2 ATS on the road and 7-13-4 in conference games.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 0-2 | Season: 10-9 (+1 UNIT)

Indiana -14.5 PENN STATE (@FanDuel)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

Penn State is more than a two-touchdown underdog at home, against a Big Ten school not named Ohio State. Imagine I had told you that before Week 1? Heck, even if it were OSU, you would have known something had gone very wrong in State College. Here we are, and I’m laying the points.

Curt Cignetti loves nothing more than to open up a can of you know what on opponents. You don’t believe he’s going to want to take it to the Nittany Lions?

Here are the updated numbers under coach Curt Cigs after last week’s cover against Maryland: 14-5 as a favorite, including 5-1 as a road favorite, and 7-2 in their past nine when favored by more than 14 points. As we said last week and the week prior, they don’t mind running it up.

Ranked second in the CFP, there’s a case for the Hoosiers to hold the top spot. They are ranked first in net points/drive, first in quality drive ratio, first in EPA margin, second in offensive success rate, and fifth in defensive success rate. They are in the top ten in 24 of 30 key metrics.

Penn State is top 10 in nothing. They are ranked 37th in net points/drive, 50th in quality drive ratio, 64th in EPA margin, 39th in offensive success rate, and 67th in defensive success rate. Pretty comparable to Maryland.

IU’s offense can beat you with a 1,000 cuts or the big play (seventh with 7.19 YPP). PSU’s defense is among the most disappointing groups in the country. They’re 90th in EPA and 67th in success rate. It’s a bad-tackling unit (108th in missed tackle rate) that ranks 17th in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed (194.6 yards per game allowed in five B1G games).

With three effective running backs, the Hoosiers have the conference’s top rushing attack (214.7 yards per game). And the further you go down the depth chart, the better they get. RB1 Roman Hemby averages 4.8 YPC (4 TDs), RB2 Kaelon Black averages 6.4 (5 TDs), and RB3 Khobie Martin averages 7.2 YPC (5 TDs), which allows them to run the ball well for four quarters and finish games strong.

Indiana’s best player is Fernando Mendoza (72.3 percent, 9.5 YPA, 25 TDs-4 INTs), and I don’t see how the Nittany Lions slow him down. PSU is ranked 79th in pressure rate, 86th in sack EPA, and has the second-fewest sacks in conference play (5). The Hoosiers protect their QB: sixth in pressure rate, 21st in sack EPA, and have allowed two sacks in the past four games.

Even if Penn State’s defensive backs do a nice job, Mendoza can beat them with his legs. Either to get first downs on the ground (220 rushing yards, 4 TDs) or to scramble while keeping his eyes down the field. Indiana is sixth in scramble EPA, while PSU’s defense is ranked 130th in defensive scramble EPA.

You’re unsure of what Indiana has to play? How about the fact that the Hoosiers have never won at Penn State? You don’t think they’ve heard about that this week?

One final nugget, from Chris “the Bear” Fallica: The last time a team other than Ohio State was a double-digit favorite in Happy Valley was 2014 when Michigan State beat the Nittany Lions 34-10. That score works for me!

I will admit this line is a tad high, but I’m fine paying a Cignetti tax.

PENN STATE UNDER 17.5 (-135 @DraftKings)

We backed Indiana’s defense last week, and the Hoosiers held Maryland to ten points. Eight of nine opponents have scored 15 points or less against the Hoosiers, with a season-high allowed of 20 points to Oregon, which is fifth nationally in scoring (41.5 PPG). And the only reason the Ducks reached 20 was because of a pick-six.

This unit is ridiculous: first in points per drive, third in EPA, fifth in success rate, and first in quality drives. They tackle well, don’t allow big plays, and create an insane amount of havoc. A deadly combo that very few defenses can pull off.

Their 29 sacks are second in the Big Ten and eighth nationally, and they are second in the country in tackles for loss. Indiana is fourth in yards before contact, 23rd in yards after, fifth in pressure rate, and 15th in yards after the catch.

They will face a Penn State offense that is rather underwhelming. The Nittany Lions are 96th in yards per play and outside the top 100 in yards per game, passing yards per game, yards per completion, and per attempt.

Ranked 102nd in yards before contact (58th in yards after), the offensive line doesn’t get much of a push. Making matters more challenging is that they’ve been forced to turn to redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer, who is averaging a meager 5.1 yards per attempt with three INTs to one TD. He’s been sacked five times with 67 attempts, compared to Drew Allar, who was sacked six times with 159 attempts. He’s also not getting much help from his pass catchers, who are 89th in YAC.

The Nittany Lions beat us last week (under 13.5) by a half-point with two touchdowns against OSU. This isn’t a complaint about a bad beat—although it could be—if not for a fumble that gave PSU the ball at the 13-yard line just before the half, they probably would have been held to seven points. Not only did they need a turnover for their second score, but forward progress was stopped (not reviewable), so it shouldn’t have even been a fumble.

Nothing we saw from Penn State’s offense leads us to believe they will do better against the Hoosiers on Saturday.

B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 1-1 (EVEN)

None. 

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 0-0 | Season: 0-0 (EVEN)

USC -13.5 Northwestern (@BetMGM)

Friday | Time: 9:00 PM | TV: FOX

Northwestern is an improved squad that has exceeded expectations in 2025. They’ve long passed their season win total and are one win away from making a bowl with four to play. USC has upgraded, too, and is a couple of tiers better than the Wildcats.

The Trojans are ranked seventh in net/points drive and ninth in EPA margin, compared to the ‘Cats, who are 58th in net/points drive and fifth in EPA margin. There’s a sizable gap. Jayden Maiava (65.3%, 9.8 YPA) has been sharp this season and has more than one top-notch playmaker, led by Makai Lemon (50 receptions, 776 yards, 6 TDs), a demon after the catch. Their WR2 and TE both average over 17 yards per catch.

On the ground, redshirt freshman King Miller has been a revelation with the top two backs down. Miller is averaging a whopping 7.8 yards per carry. Expect another big game from him tonight.

Northwestern’s defense is solid but not as sound as you think. If you watch them play, you’ll be surprised at how many tackles they miss, and the numbers back it up, ranked 137th in missed tackle rate and 90th in yards per carry allowed. They also lack the pass rush—six sacks in five Big Ten games—to disrupt Lincoln Riley’s passing attack. It’s a defense ranked 57th in yards per play (5.31). Not shabby until you consider the Trojans are first in yards per play (7.62).

As we’ve documented multiple times this season, USC is a different team at home. They’ve scored at least 31 points in all four home games, including the one against Michigan, with 31 the most points the Wolverines have allowed this season. Maiava’s numbers take a big leap in the Coliseum with a 76% completion percentage and 12.1 YPA. He’s thrown 11 of his 15 TDs in the friendly confines despite 36 fewer attempts with one INT (four on the road) and no sacks (eight on the road).

What has also been a shaky run defense has played its best game at home against a Michigan offense that’s second in the B1G in rushing and eighth nationally in YPC. I expect them to gear up to stop the run.

Preston Stone has had a rough season, and the Cats are outside the top 100 in passing yards per game, per attempt (99th in per completion), completion percentage, and QB rating. Stone has been even worse on the road, where he’s completed 56 percent of his passes for 5.3 YPA, one TD pass, and six INTs. A one-dimensional offense isn’t going to be able to keep up. Northwestern’s strength is the ability to gain yards after contact, which the Trojans have limited (37th) this season. Where to beat USC is with yards after the catch, but the Wildcats are 130th in YAC. They don’t have the throw game to take advantage of that.

The Men of Troy are 3-1 ATS at home this season, with a backdoor cover by MSU. In two seasons in the Big Ten, USC is 7-1 as the home favorite. They’re just different at home. This is Northwestern’s fourth road game, but first on the West Coast. In their only game on the Pacific time zone in recent memory, the ‘Cats lost 24-5 at Washington as an 11.5-point underdog last season.

USC has also had two key pieces return to action last week after missing several games: their most important offensive lineman, left tackle Elijah Paige, and safety Kamari Ramsey, one of their top defenders.

Lay. The. Wood.

Stay ahead of the game and elevate your sports betting experience with SportsGrid.