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5 Most Overrated Teams in College Football AP Poll

Grant White

Host · Writer

5) Missouri Tigers
AP Poll Rank: #25

Missouri Team Profile
- Head Coach: Eliah Drinkwitz (7th Season)
- 2025 Record: 8-5 (4-4)
- 2025 Finish: 8th in the SEC
The Missouri Tigers earned a handful of votes in the preseason AP Poll, narrowly edging Clemson out for the 25th spot. It won't be long before voters recognize the error of their ways, with Mizzou projected to struggle this season.

The Tigers' passing game has effectively been rebuilt. Austin Simmons was brought in as an offseason transfer and has a 59.8% completion percentage and 107 pass attempts across his last two seasons with Ole Miss. Moreover, Mizzou lost three of its top four receivers from last season.

Unless its defense finds a way to score regularly, Missouri has virtually no chance of maintaining its position in the Top 25. The Tigers need to make the most of their non-conference schedule if they hope to stay bowl eligible.
1) Texas Longhorns
AP Poll Rank: #5

Texas Longhorns Team Profile
- Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian (6th Season)
- 2025 Record: 10–3 (6-2)
- 2025 Finish: 5th in the SEC
The Texas Longhorns were in a similar position last season. Entering the 2025 campaign as the top-ranked team in the country, Texas went 3-2 to start the year and never recovered to make a sincere run at a playoff spot. They enter this season as the fifth-ranked team, but we are anticipating anticipating a similar downfall in 2026.

The Longhorns' success relies heavily on Arch Manning living up to his billing as a generational talent. Unfortunately, that just hasn't been the case throughout his tenure in the Lone Star State. Consistency has been a limiting factor, and Manning will have to run a gauntlet of tough SEC defenses, particularly toward the end of the campaign. But with a re-tooled offensive line and weaker supporting cast, Manning has to prove he can shoulder the burden before we give him credit for it.

As was the case last year, Texas heads into the season with lofty ambitions. If they fail to deliver, the Longhorns will fall hard in the AP Poll. Most people are already giving them the benefit of the doubt, we have more pressing concerns about Manning & Co.'s ability to deliver.
2) Penn State Nittany Lions
AP Poll Rank: #18

Penn State Nittany Lions Team Profile
- Head Coach: Matt Campbell (1st Season)
- 2025 Record: 7-6 (3-6)
- 2025 Finish: 12th in the Big Ten
Penn State is coming off one of its worst seasons in recent memory. The Nittany Lions struggled to a 7-6 record last season, including a dismal 3-6 record in Big Ten play, their fewest conference wins since 2014. Not surprisingly, Penn State had to rebuild from the ground up, and it's already getting too much credit for those changes.

The Nittany Lions are almost completely rebuilt on offense. Senior transfer Rocco Becht takes the reins under center, featuring two new receivers, a new running back, and the left side of the offensive line rebuilt. Becht has fared reasonably well against Big 12 competition, but the Big Ten represents a significant upgrade.

Matt Campbell has his work cut out for him in his first season at University Park. Amidst all of this change, Penn State will undergo some growing pains and will struggle to
3) LSU Tigers
AP Poll Rank: #11

LSU Tigers Team Profile
- Head Coach: Lane Kiffin (1st Season)
- 2025 Record: 7-6 (3-5)
- 2025 Finish: 10th in the SEC
Lane Kiffin shook the SEC following his late-season departure from Ole Miss last year. Now settled in at LSU, the Tigers likely won't experience the same level of success as the Rebels.

Kiffin built Ole Miss into a perennial contender, but the start of his tenure was very different than the end of it. The Rebels went 23-13 over Kiffin's first three seasons with the program, finishing ranked only once during that stretch.

We trust Kiffin to turn the Tigers around, but it won't be an easy climb out of mediocrity. Give it a year or two, and LSU will be back, but it's not there yet.
Houston Cougars
AP Poll Rank: #23

Houston Team Profile
- Head Coach: Willie Fritz (3rd Season)
- 2025 Record: 10-3 (6-3)
- 2025 Finish: 4th in the Big 12
The Houston Cougars were built for last year. The team featured upperclassmen across the roster, riding their star players to a 10-3 record and a Top 25 ranking. It's unlikely they replicate that success in 2026.

Houston had significant turnover on both sides of the ball. Six of their projected starters on offense were offseason transfers, with five new players also taking over on defense. Until they step onto the field, they're getting too much credit for the sum of their parts.

Continuity will be a limiting factor for the Cougars this season. A Week 3 test versus Texas Tech will be their first true challenge. We predict they will fail miserably and fall into a mid-season tailspin a few weeks later.
5) Missouri Tigers
AP Poll Rank: #25

Missouri Team Profile
- Head Coach: Eliah Drinkwitz (7th Season)
- 2025 Record: 8-5 (4-4)
- 2025 Finish: 8th in the SEC
The Missouri Tigers earned a handful of votes in the preseason AP Poll, narrowly edging Clemson out for the 25th spot. It won't be long before voters recognize the error of their ways, with Mizzou projected to struggle this season.

The Tigers' passing game has effectively been rebuilt. Austin Simmons was brought in as an offseason transfer and has a 59.8% completion percentage and 107 pass attempts across his last two seasons with Ole Miss. Moreover, Mizzou lost three of its top four receivers from last season.

Unless its defense finds a way to score regularly, Missouri has virtually no chance of maintaining its position in the Top 25. The Tigers need to make the most of their non-conference schedule if they hope to stay bowl eligible.
1) Texas Longhorns
AP Poll Rank: #5

Texas Longhorns Team Profile
- Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian (6th Season)
- 2025 Record: 10–3 (6-2)
- 2025 Finish: 5th in the SEC
The Texas Longhorns were in a similar position last season. Entering the 2025 campaign as the top-ranked team in the country, Texas went 3-2 to start the year and never recovered to make a sincere run at a playoff spot. They enter this season as the fifth-ranked team, but we are anticipating anticipating a similar downfall in 2026.

The Longhorns' success relies heavily on Arch Manning living up to his billing as a generational talent. Unfortunately, that just hasn't been the case throughout his tenure in the Lone Star State. Consistency has been a limiting factor, and Manning will have to run a gauntlet of tough SEC defenses, particularly toward the end of the campaign. But with a re-tooled offensive line and weaker supporting cast, Manning has to prove he can shoulder the burden before we give him credit for it.

As was the case last year, Texas heads into the season with lofty ambitions. If they fail to deliver, the Longhorns will fall hard in the AP Poll. Most people are already giving them the benefit of the doubt, we have more pressing concerns about Manning & Co.'s ability to deliver.