Big Ten Week 12 Expert Picks and Best Bets For Friday’s & Saturday’s Action

With the four former Pac-12 schools playing each other over the final two weeks of the season, this is the final weekend featuring teams traveling multiple time zones. There have been 24 such Big Ten games in 2025. The travel team is 11-13 overall, not much of a trend. However, they are 9-14-1 ATS and 2-6 ATS over the past two weeks. If we extend it to include all Big Ten games against Power 4 opponents (+Notre Dame), the records are 11-16 straight up and 9-16-2 ATS.

Week 12 of the College Football season offers four such Big Ten matchups, kicking off with Friday Night Lights again when No. 8 Oregon hosts Minnesota. Another travel matchup, No. 21 Iowa at No. 17 USC, is the lone B1G contest between ranked teams. It’s a must-win game for the Trojans, while No. 18 Michigan is the other Big Ten program with CFP aspirations that cannot afford a slip-up at Northwestern in Wrigley Field.

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Last Week: 4-3 (+1 UNIT) | Overall: 38-32 (+4 UNITS)

Not So B1G Bets: 26-20 (+3 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 10-11 (-1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 1-1 (EVEN) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 17-19 (-1 UNIT) | Team Totals: 17-8 (+6.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 4-5 (-1.5 UNITS)

Big Ten Week 12 College Football Picks

NOT SO B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 3-1 | Season: 26-20 (+3 UNITS)

OREGON -24.5 Minnesota (@BetMGM)

Friday | Time: 9:00 PM | TV: FOX

Chances of rain are diminishing as the week progresses, and the projected 2.2 MPH winds make this the least windy Big Ten game of Week 12.

As we wait to hear more about Oregon’s injured pass catchers, we do know this: they don’t need the threat of the pass to be able to run the ball. Against Iowa, the Ducks rumbled for 261 yards and averaged 7.3 YPC with all four ball carriers, including QB Dante Moore, recording rushes of at least 19 yards in the victory.

I’m not sure anyone has a deeper stable of backs: RB1 Noah Whittington leads the way with 551 yards (8.1 YPC, 4 TDs), freshman bowling ball Jordon Davison has 10 rushing TDs (404 yards, 6.8 YPC), and freshman speedster Dierre Hill Jr. averages an incredible 9.3 (!) YPC (402 yards, 4 TDs). The offensive line gets a big push upfront while their running backs run through tackles and make defenders miss.

This is going to be a problem for a Minnesota defense that ranks 129th in yards after contact and 108th in missed-tackle rate. The Ducks have topped 40 points in three of five home games.

Minnesota is 0-3 ATS on the road and 1-4-1 ATS in Big Ten Games. They’ve faced four top ten teams since 2023, with losses of at least 34 points in three of them.

Since their 56-point explosion at Rutgers, the Ducks scored 21 points in a monsoon against Wisconsin, had an off week, and were held to 18 points by Iowa. You have to imagine they will want to flex their offensive firepower against Minnesota in what should be a laugher in Eugene.

Minnesota UNDER 9.5 (+130 @Bet365)

It’s not going to take 56 or even 40 points to cover the large spread.

The Gophers are 118th in points per drive, 106th in offensive success rate, and 95th in offensive EPA, compared to an Oregon defense that’s seventh in points per drive, 19th in success rate, and eighth in EPA. It’s been a rough go of it, and Minnesota does nothing well offensively. Dead last with 447 rushing yards in six Big Ten games, they lack the old-school running game that many of P.J. Fleck’s teams have been built on, without the passing attack to make up for it.

Quarterback Drake Lindsey has shown some flashes, but still often plays like a freshman. His numbers have really dipped since a strong September (70.7 completion percentage, 8.1 YPA, 5 TDs-1 INT, three sacks). Over his past five games, Lindsey is completing 59.5 percent of his passes for 4.97 yards per pass, and three TDs-four INTs with nine sacks. It gets even worse on the road: 58.1 percent, 4.7 YPA, one TD-four INTs, and six sacks (three games).

In those three road losses, the Gophers have scored 20 points in total, including just three points at Ohio State and three points at Iowa. A shutout is certainly in play on Friday night.

Michigan-Northwestern UNDER 41.5 (@FanDuel)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: FOX

My initial thoughts on this matchup were under Northwestern’s team total (14.5), and if I had to pick a side, the Wildcats with the points grew on me as the line moved into double digits. Well, if I don’t see the ‘Cats scoring much more than two touchdowns, but also wouldn’t lay the points with Michigan on the road, under on the game is the logical play.

The Wildcats are 89th in points per drive, while the Wolverines are 21st in points per drive allowed. Michigan’s front has been among the best in college football: 12th in yards before contact and second in pressure rate. Their defense is sound up and down the board, and they are tough to run on, which is Northwestern’s entire offense.

If the Wolverines get some of their linebackers back, it will be a slog for the Wildcats to top ten points.

Northwestern will play a bend-but-don’t-break style that forces methodical drives, and on the road, it won’t come easily for Michigan. Bryce Underwood hasn’t been nearly as effective on the road: 50.6 completion percentage, 6.2 YPA, 2 TDs-1 INT, with five sacks compared to 87 attempts. Without big-play back Justice Haynes, the Maize and Blue aren’t nearly as explosive in the running game.

On the road, Michigan averages 21.8 PPG. At home, Northwestern allows 12.4 PPG. The only team to score more than 14 points on them at home is Oregon (34). This game moves from Martin Stadium to Wrigley Field, but all our points stand. It’s expected to be very windy, which will make both offenses even more one-dimensional. A slow tempo will limit possessions.

Non-sickos, no need to watch the game… check your phone periodically to follow the non-action.

USC -6.5 Iowa (@DraftKings)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: BTN

We were on Iowa last week getting nearly a touchdown, but the circumstances are very different. For starters, that game was in Kinnick, and this week they have to hit the road. Also, the Hawkeyes didn’t have to deal with Oregon’s offense at full strength, as the Ducks were without their top two receivers and elite tight end.

To quote previous columns, USC is a different team at home. It’s why the Trojans -13.5 against Northwestern last week was our biggest bet of the season. They won by 21. Their fake punt gained a lot of attention, but let’s not ignore that USC out-gained the ‘Cats by 202 yards (484-280) and averaged 7.53 YPP to 5.09 by Northwestern.

In five home games, the Men of Troy are averaging 49.2 PPG, including 38 PPG in three conference contests, with a season low of 31 points in the Coliseum. The 45 points scored on Michigan State are the most MSU has allowed this season, as are the 31 points scored on Michigan and the 38 on the Wildcats last week. Sensing a theme?

With last week’s cover, USC improved to 4-1 ATS at home this season, as well as 8-1 ATS as the home favorite, and 6-1 ATS in Big Ten play over the past two seasons.

As we pointed out last week, Jayden Maiava has been Heisman-esque at home, not so much on the road. Here are the home/road splits: 75.2% completion percentage (57.4%), 11.3 YPA (8.2), 13 TDs-2 INTs (4 TDs-4 INTs), and one sack (8). Four of his six rushing scores have also come at the Coliseum despite 12 fewer carries.

Without much threat of the pass, Oregon still ran it down Iowa’s throat, and like the Ducks, the Trojans are balanced. King Miller rushed for 127 yards (8.5 YPC) last week, his second straight and third time in four games with over 125 yards on the ground. He’s averaging 7.9 YPC, and in the four games with double-digit carries, he’s rushed for 484 yards.

As good as Iowa’s defense is, it’s not one of its elite units: they miss tackles (109th in missed tackle rate), lack a top-notch pass rush (89th in pressure rate, 102nd in sack EPA), and don’t handle scrambling QBs well (116th in EPA). Giving Maiava time to throw, breaking down when he scrambles, and missing tackles isn’t the formula to slowing the Trojans down. USC isn’t as big-play reliant as many believe, and they showed last week that they’re willing to take what the defense gives them.

Offensively, the Hawkeyes are improved but still really struggle throwing the football (117th in dropback success rate). Yes, they have a good running game, but as Michigan and Northwestern learned, that alone is not enough. USC’s front seven is very sound (20th in missed tackle rate, 31st in yards after contact). Moreover, like the Wolverines and Wildcats, Iowa lacks the receiving playmakers (94th in yards after the catch) to make the explosive plays that the Trojans are most vulnerable to.

If not for the rainy conditions, this would be a B1G or B1GGER bet.

ILLINOIS -15.5 Maryland (@BetMGM)

Time: 3:30 PM | TV: FS1

We’re going to continue to fade the Terps (not sure why we stopped last week). They’ve lost five straight games and haven’t covered in their past three.

In out-of-conference play, Maryland averaged 34.3 PPG and allowed 11 PPG against the likes of FAU, Northern Illinois, and Towson. In Big Ten games, those numbers shift to 20.8 PPG and 29.7 PPG allowed, which includes a 27-10 win over Wisconsin in their B1G opener. In the past three games, the Terps averaged 15.7 PPG and 36.7 PPG allowed.

They’re trending in the wrong direction and are unlikely to make a bowl after a 4-0 start. Maryland’s running game is nearly non-existent: 124th in success rate and 118th in EPA per rush. Just like Michigan’s freshman quarterback, Malik Washington, hasn’t looked comfortable on the road this season, where he’s completing 50.9 percent of his passes for just 5.2 yards per pass. They’re 112th in points per drive.

The Illini’s defense hasn’t been elite, but they’ve also faced some of the nation’s best offenses in USC, Indiana, Ohio State, and Washington (on the road). They held Rutgers to 13 points in their last game, the same Scarlet Knights who just beat the Terps 35-20. This matchup favors Aaron Henry’s defense, a unit that plays hard and can be physical.

Illinois has an excellent offense, ranked 17th in EPA, 23rd in points per drive, and 26th in success rate. The offensive line does a good job in the running game, and the Illini should move the ball effectively on the ground, which will open up their throw game. An efficient passer, QB Luke Altmyer is also a playmaker on designed runs and scrambles.

Maryland’s early success was mainly due to its defense, but it has faltered in conference play: 13th in PPG and 17th in yards per game allowed.

Illinois is 5-0 ATS as the favorite this season and 4-1 ATS at home (lost vs. OSU). They are coming off a bye, which has been a strength of Bret Bielema (since 2021): 7-3 ATS after a bye and 10-3 ATS with rest advantage.

Over that same time, Mike Locksley’s team is 2-6 ATS with a rest disadvantage, 6-10 ATS as the road dog, 16-26 ATS in conference games, and 11-16 ATS after a loss.

Do I really need to twist your arm to fade the Terps?

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 0-2 | Season: 10-11 (-1 UNIT)

INDIANA -28.5 Wisconsin (@DraftKings)

Time: 12:00 PM | TV: BTN

After failing to cover at Penn State, here are the updated ATS numbers under coach Curt Cignetti: 14-6 as a favorite, 10-4 as a home favorite, and 7-2 in their past nine when favored by more than 21 points. A loss ATS last week doesn’t have us jumping off the bandwagon.

Indiana is still first nationally in net/points per drive, while Wisconsin is ranked 114th.

The Hoosiers are an offensive juggernaut with the No. 2 rushing offense in the Big Ten, and Heisman hopeful Fernando Mendoza is triggering the offense. He is among the most effective QBs in both designed runs and on scrambles, an area of trouble for the Badgers. Wisconsin’s defense has been down this season, most surprisingly in the amount of yards they allow after contact and after the catch, which IU is primed to take advantage of.

Mendoza is another passer who is a better player at home. At Memorial Stadium, he’s completed 77.2 percent of his passes for 9.9 YPA, 21 TDs-1 INT, and has only been sacked three times with 149 attempts (on the road: 62.9%, 8.3 YPA, 5TDs-4 INTs, seven sacks, 105 attempts).

The even bigger problem for the Badgers is their offense, I’d say, particularly quarterback play, but the rushing game is just as inept. Upsetting a ranked Washington team last week is their best win under Luke Fickell, which came with the punter as their leading passer. They went back to Danny O’Neil as QB1 last Saturday, but he was injured, which led to the debut of true freshman Carter Smith —and it wasn’t pretty (3-of-12, 8 yards). On the ground, Wisconsin’s 2.9 yards per carry is 18th out of 18 B1G teams.

It’s very possible they don’t score a single point, which they didn’t in losses to Iowa and Ohio State. Indiana’s defense is right there with the elite units in the country. In Big Ten play, the Badgers have averaged 6.2 PPG. At home, the Hoosiers have held opponents to 8.7 PPG, including 9.7 against three conference foes.

Don’t be surprised if IU’s defense leads to more points than Wisconsin’s offense.

WASHINGTON -16.5 Purdue (@FanDuel)

Time: 7:00 PM | TV: FS1

We won big last week with a Pacific Coast team featuring an explosive offense, hosting a traditional Big Ten program that is offensively challenged. We’re going back to the well.

Washington is only 4-5 ATS this season, but 3-1 as the home favorite, and 2-0 as the home favorite against a Big Ten team. If we go back to last season, they are 4-1 as the host when the road team travels multiple time zones, with the lone loss ATS (and straight up) coming at the hands of No. 1 Ohio State. At Husky Stadium over the past two seasons, UW is 10-1 overall, and 9-0 as the favorite, covering the spread in seven of those contests (78 percent).

Purdue has dropped eight straight games, is winless in Big Ten play, and is headed towards another double-digit loss season. There’s a big gap between these programs.

Overall, UW is 21st in EPA margin, 25th in net points/drive, and 41st in quality drive ratio, while Purdue is ranked 81st in EPA margin, 95th in net points/drive, and 113th in quality drive ratio.

The offense is among the best in college football, ranked fifth in success rate, seventh in quality drive rate, 15th in EPA, 22nd in points per drive, and 27th in yards per play. How does Purdue compare? Their defense is ranked 122nd in success rate, 130th in quality drive rate, 79th in EPA, 91st in points per drive, and 115th in yards per play.

On the season, Washington averages 32.7 PPG (40th) and 20.0 PPG allowed (28th). The most significant bump at home comes from their offense, which averages 47 PPG in the friendly confines and scored 80 points in their past two B1G home games (Rutgers and Illinois). They’ve scored at least 38 points in four of five at Husky Stadium, with their loss to OSU the lone exception.

Knowing all this, the home-road splits from Demond Williams Jr. aren’t surprising: 75.6 completion percentage (67.7%), 10.2 YPA (7.4), and 8 TDs-0 INTs (7-5). He’s also been a much better runner: 306 yards (184), 5.4 YPC (3.6), and three rushing TDs (1).

Williams and Washington’s running backs are good at making defenders miss (23rd in missed tackle rate), as are their pass catchers (second in YAC). Purdue’s defense is tackling challenged, 129th in missed tackle rate and 126th in yards allowed after the catch. I’d be surprised if the Boilermakers force more than one punt.

WR1 Denzel Boston (52-730-8 TDs) is a projected first-round pick, and he’s one of five Huskies with at least 19 receptions. Freshman Dezmen Roebuck (29-421-4 TDs) has really emerged as a No. 2 with a strong October. He’s also been especially dynamic at home (17-306-3 TDs). Two other pass catchers coming on are freshman Raiden Vines-Bright (13 receptions in October) and sophomore TE Decker DeGraaf (13 receptions in October). Running back Jonah Coleman (11.6 YPC) is also one of the most productive receivers out of the backfield.

As a rusher, Coleman leads the Big Ten with 13 rushing TDs (15 total), and Adam Mohammed, a physical runner, complements him as RB2. With left tackle Carver Willis and left guard John Mills back anchoring the O-line, the Huskies will cook.

Conversely, the Boilermakers struggle running the ball and are without their top rusher, Devin Mockobee. They don’t get a push from the offensive line (88th yards before contact) or make yards on their own (103rd in yards after contact, 94th in missed tackle rate). Washington is strong upfront, tough to run on, and has an excellent tackling unit. Purdue’s O-line also hasn’t protected its QB well (128th in pressure rate), and its pass catchers are ranked 93rd in YAC. This offense relies heavily on QB scrambles, and that’s not good against a Huskies defense that’s third in scramble EPA.

After scoring at least 27 points in four of their first five games (27.8 PPG), there was hope for progress in West Lafayette. Over the past four games, they’ve scored more than 16 points once, and are averaging just 12.5 PPG. The wear and tear of the season has caught up to them, and with a trip to the great northwest before their second bye of 2025, would you be surprised if they were looking ahead to the finish line?

There’s expected to be rain, but not a lot of wind, so I’m not too worried about the conditions. If the Huskies were fully healthy, Coleman and Boston were both banged up last week and are questionable; I would have this as a B1GGER bet, and the over on Washington’s team total would probably find its way onto my card.

B1GGER BET (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 1-1 (EVEN)

None.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)