Big Ten CFP Picks: Ohio State vs Miami Prediction

The Illinois Fighting Illini’s upset over Missouri and 30-point effort got us a pair of wins on Tuesday to improve the B1G Bets bowl record to 4-1, which we hope to build on with Iowa +5.5 and Vanderbilt UNDER 26.5 in today’s early game.

With the non-CFP Big Ten bowl games behind us, our focus shifts exclusively to the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, where three B1G programs look to advance to the semifinals, starting with the Ohio State Buckeyes facing the Miami Hurricanes in the Cotton Bowl to close out the year.

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Last Week: 1-0 (+1/2 UNIT) | This Week: 2-0 (+2 UNITS) | Overall: 52-48 (+4 UNITS)

Not So B1G Bets: 32-30 (+1 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 16-15 (+1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 3-3 (EVEN) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 26-28 (EVEN) | Team Totals: 22-13 (+6.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 4-7 (-2.5 UNITS)

Where to Watch the Cotton Bowl

Stadium: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN
Date: December 31, 2025
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs. Miami Betting Odds

Spread: Ohio State -9.5 (-110)
Total: Over 40.5 (-112) | Under (-108)
Moneyline: Ohio State -360 | Miami +290

Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs. Miami Kalshi Odds

Chance: Ohio State 76% | Miami 24%
Spread: Ohio State -9.5 Yes 51¢ | No 51¢
Total: Over 39.5 Yes 55¢ | No 47¢

College Football Bowl Game Picks: NOT-SO-B1G BETS (1/2 UNIT)

Ohio State-Miami UNDER 40.5 (-105 @DraftKings)

Ohio State-Miami FIRST HALF UNDER 20.5 (-110 @BetMGM)

Out of the four quarterfinal spreads, this one feels most on the money, which brings us to the total.

As good as Ohio State’s offense has been this season, its offensive line has been inconsistent and shown some vulnerabilities.

Let’s start with the running game, where the Buckeyes are ranked 64th in yards before contact. They count on their backs to do too much on their own, and while they do a better job of creating yards after contact, OSU finished 105th in missed tackle rate. It’s the elusive runners that have given Miami trouble, while the ‘Canes are eighth in yards before contact allowed.

Then let’s talk about the pass protection. Yes, OSU’s overall numbers are outstanding; however, against the best pass rush they faced, Indiana got to Julian Sayin five times as they were held to 10 points in the Big Ten Championship Game. In Miami, they will face what might be an even better pass rush (5th in pressure rate). EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. (7.5 sacks) gets most of the attention, but Akheem Mesidor (8.5 sacks) led them in sacks. The right side of Ohio State’s offensive line is its biggest weakness, one Mesidor can exploit.

This is the ball game for The U, because Sayin doesn’t do much in terms of scrambling and wasn’t nearly as effective against the Hoosiers when he had to deal with pressure in his face.

Ryan Day is calling the plays, which may help. But he also knows the situation, his offense’s vulnerabilities, and that he can win this game with his defense. OSU’s pace is the slowest in all of college football (136th), and I don’t expect that to change on New Year’s Eve. A conservative, don’t-lose-it-with-mistakes strategy wouldn’t surprise me.

The same goes for Mario Cristobal and Miami, whose offense also moves at a snail’s pace (129th). Did you watch the game against Texas A&M? Carson Beck only attempted 20 passes. They were very cautious, and that will be the game plan again as they look to lean on the run and shorten the game.

The problem is that Miami is even worse in yards before contact (111th), yards after contact (70th), and missed tackle rate (122nd). The Buckeyes have what many believe is the best defense in the country and are ranked first in points per drive. Nothing has come easy against a defense that features difference makers like DE Caden Curry (11 sacks), DT Kayden McDonald (3 sacks), LB Arvell Reese (57 tackles), and S Caleb Downs (60 tackles) at every level.

Like Sayin, Beck is also no threat to hurt you with his legs, which again takes some pressure off the defense.

Where the ‘Canes do damage is explosives with yards after the catch. The problem is that OSU ranks seventh in limiting YAC.

Miami’s team total is 15.5. A number that OSU’s defense has allowed more than just once this season, when Illinois scored 16. Ohio State’s team total is 25.5. A number that The U’s defense has allowed more than once this season, when SMU scored 26.

As good as both defenses have been, they’re even better in the first halves of games, which, when you consider both offenses’ propensities for slow starts, has us double-dipping with under for the first half as well as the game.

In their first round win in College Station, the Hurricanes scored 10 points for a total of 13 points in the game. That’s the same number of points the Buckeyes managed against Indiana (10 points) in their Big Ten Championship Game loss (23 total points). These teams and coaches have told us who they are, so why not listen?