Big Ten Bowl Picks and Best Bets For December 30 & New Year’s Eve
Danny Mogollon
Host · Writer
As we expected, the Northwestern Wildcats showed up, and their defense nearly pitched a shutout against Central Michigan to improve our bowl record to 2-1. Before we get to the three College Football Playoff quarterfinals matchups featuring Big Ten teams, there are five bowls involving B1G programs.
A bevy of player opt-outs and coaching upheaval has us hard-pressed to pick sides in the Music City Bowl (USC-TCU), Citrus Bowl (Michigan-Texas), and Las Vegas Bowl (Nebraska-Utah). Such is the world of college football in 2026. Have no fear, as we have multiple plays in multiple games with four B1GBets to take you into the New Year.
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Last Week: 1-0 (+1/2 UNIT) | Overall: 50-48 (+2 UNITS)
Not So B1G Bets: 32-30 (+1 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 14-15 (-1 UNIT) | B1GGER Bets: 3-3 (EVEN) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-0 (+2 UNITS)
ATS Bets: 25-28 (-1 UNIT) | Team Totals: 21-13 (+5.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 4-7 (-2.5 UNITS)
College Football Bowl Game Picks: B1G BETS (1 UNIT)
Where to Watch the Music City Bowl
- Stadium: Nissan Stadium
- Location: Nashville, TN
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Date: December 30, 2025
- Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
Music City Bowl: Illinois vs. Tennessee Betting Odds
- Spread: Tennessee -3 (-110)
- Total: Over 61.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
- Moneyline: Tennessee -152 | Illinois +128
Music City Bowl: Illinois vs. Tennessee Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Tennessee 59% | Illinois 41%
- Spread: Tennessee -3.5 Yes 48¢ | No 53¢
- Total: Over 61.5 Yes 51¢ | No 50¢
Illinois +3 Tennessee (@DraftKings)
Illinois OVER Team Total (@BetMGM)
The Big Ten is 5-0 in bowl games going into the Music City Bowl, including 4-1 ATS (JMU backdoored Oregon). The SEC is 2-4 so far (1-3 against other conferences), and what really stands out are losses by Texas A&M and Missouri, members of the “ain’t-beat-nobody” club.
None of TAMU’s seven SEC wins came against teams that had a winning conference record, and more than half (four) came against the bottom four of the SEC (three conference wins combined). Then there’s Missouri, which also beat the SEC’s bottom four and had no wins over a team with a winning record. Both were exposed in their bowl game, and I expect the same to happen to Tennessee. Yes, the Vols did beat East Tennessee State (7-5) out of the FCS, but they also have no wins over a bowl-eligible team. Illinois has three such wins, including over ACC Champ Duke and ranked USC.
This feels like an even matchup and a toss-up game, with the bigger name out of the SEC getting overvalued.
The most significant edge on the field for the Illini is when they have the ball, where it appears there’s only one opt-out on offense for Illinois. At the same time, the Vols could have at least one player on every level missing their bowl game, including their leading tackler, Arion Carter, and Joshua Josephs, one of their pass rushers. Cornerbacks Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson were already hurt, Colton Hood has opted out, and Boo Carter is in the portal. They could be covering a deep group of Illini receivers with third- and fourth-stringers in the secondary.
Tennessee isn’t at full strength, and even when they were, it wasn’t a strong group: they ranked 90th in points per drive, 90th in quality drive rate, and 85th in success rate, with their pass defense being their stronger unit—all while finishing second in forced fumbles. They allowed over 30 points a whopping seven times this season!
Digging deeper into the numbers, the Vols were outside the top 100 in yards after contact, missed tackle rate, designed QB runs EPA, and yards after the catch. Oh, and they are without their defensive coordinator, who was fired, with their linebacker coach running the show on Tuesday.
All of this adds up to an excellent matchup for QB Luke Altmyer (8.5 YPA), who is an accurate passer (68.1%), a good decision maker (21 TDs-6 INTs), and can be a very effective runner (18th in QB-designed run EPA). Remember, the three-year starter began his career at Ole Miss, and he would love to end his career with a win against a marquee SEC opponent. The Vols also tried to nab him in the offseason, which tells you who has the QB edge.
Illinois has seven players with at least 11 receptions, six of whom average over 11 yards per catch. The leader is Hank Beatty (64-826), while the speedy Collin Dixon averaged 16.3 YPC, and the 6’4 Justin Bowick is an impressive red zone weapon.
Overall, the Illini finished 31st in points per drive, 23rd in offensive success rate, and 25th in EPA on offense. It’s a balanced and versatile backfield with three capable runners who offer size, speed, and quickness.
Defensively, we don’t love the matchup for Illinois, but the fact that big-play WR Chris Brazzell II has also opted out for Tennessee does ease our concern.
Yes, the game is in Nashville, but Bret Bielema has brought Big Ten weather with him (36 degrees), which suits the Illini just fine.
Where to Watch the ReilaQuest Bowl
- Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
- Location: Tampa, FL
- Where to Watch: ESPN
- Date: December 31, 2025
- Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
ReilaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Betting Odds
- Spread: Vanderbilt -5.5 (-108)
- Total: Over 46.5 (-112) | Under (-108)
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt -218 | Iowa +180
ReilaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt Kalshi Odds
- Chance: Vanderbilt 65% | Iowa 35%
- Spread: Vanderbilt -3.5 Yes 55¢ | No 46¢
- Total: Over 47.5 Yes 48¢ | No 55¢
Iowa +5.5 Vanderbilt (@DraftKings)
Vanderbilt UNDER 26.6 Team Total (@DraftKings)
If you’re like me and disappointed by what’s happened to bowl season, this is the game for you. We have two teams who will likely care and play hard, with not many opt-outs on either side.
It’s strength vs. strength when Vanderbilt has the ball, and I believe Iowa will get enough wins in this matchup to make this a toss-up game. The Hawkeyes are ninth in points per drive allowed and strong against both the run and the pass. They don’t give up many yards before contact and are the best in the country when it comes to limiting yards after the catch.
Iowa will win in the trenches. Their defensive line fills the running lanes with size, strength, and discipline, and applies pressure on the quarterback. The veteran trio of Aaron Graves (grad), Ethan Hurkett (grad), and Max Llewellyn (senior)—all 260-plus pounds—have combined for 92 tackles and 17 sacks. The key is stopping the run and putting the Commodores into obvious passing downs, forcing Diego Pavia to navigate a situation he hasn’t faced much this season, without his top target, Mackey Award winner Eli Stowers.
Pavia is one player whom I do have some questions about. He wouldn’t be the first Heisman candidate to flop in a bowl game after going through the awards circuit leading up to the bowl game. This was also a team that believed they should have been in the CFP with their 10 wins coming out of the SEC. Are they as excited to play in a bowl as they were a year ago?
Against Alabama and Missouri, two of the top three defenses Vandy faced this season, Pavia & Company managed 14 points against the Crimson Tide (ranked 9th in SP+) and 17 points against the Tigers (14th). Pavia threw for just 160 yards passing against LSU (10th). Iowa (7th in SP+) could be the most formidable defense they have seen all season.
Iowa’s offense (46th in EPA, 50th in success rate) is average at best, but considering what they’ve been over the past few seasons, that’s a significant improvement. The Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line is arguably the best in college football, and they can run the ball well. The Hawkeyes have several capable runners, including quarterback Mark Gronowski, who rushed for 15 TDs. Averaging 7.8 yards per pass with four TDs to two INTs in November, he comes in playing his best football.
One can point to Iowa’s 0-4 record against ranked teams this season. However, don’t ignore that Kirk Ferentz and company were 3-0-1 ATS in those games. The Hawkeyes had No. 1 Indiana and No. 5 Oregon both on the ropes late in the fourth quarter of both defeats. They’ve proven they can hang with anyone.
Take the points, and, as has been a near-automatic for B1G Bets, take the opposing team total under whenever betting on Iowa. If they cover nine times out of ten, it will be because of their defense. Phil Parker’s unit has allowed over 26 points once all season.
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