College Football Best Bets for Week 11: B1G Bets Expert Predictions | Big Ten Picks

We won’t even talk about last week…on to Week 11. We have six Big Ten games, four with spreads of at least 13 points, two over three touchdowns, with as big of a mismatch as the B1G can offer with Purdue visiting Columbus.

Last Week: 5-2 (+4.5 UNITS) | Overall: 29-34-1 (EVEN)

Regular Bets: 10-18-1 (-4 UNITS) | B1G Bets: 12-12 (EVEN) | B1GGER Bets: 6-2 (+6 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 1-2 (-2 UNITS)

ATS Bets: 17-19-1 (-1.5 UNITS) | Team Totals: 11-12 (+2.5 UNITS) | Game Totals: 1-3 (-1 UNIT)

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

REGULAR BETS (1/2 UNIT): Last Week: 1-1 | Season: 10-18-1 (-4 UNITS)

OHIO STATE -23.5 Purdue FIRST HALF (FanDuel)

Against teams currently ranked, Purdue lost 66-7 to Notre Dame (trailed 42-0 at halftime) and 35-0 to Oregon (21-0 at halftime). The Boilermakers have scored 113 points against FBS opponents this season, with 26 of those points coming in the first half (23%).

There’s an excellent chance that Purdue goes scoreless going into the locker room. Rather than risk Ohio State covering the massive number (-37.5) with third and fourth stringers in the fourth quarter (which they probably will), we’ll bank on the Buckeyes jumping all over the Boilermakers from the opening whistle.

For those who need a reason why Ohio State is favored by so much, they are first in EPA margin, third in net points/drive, third in defensive success rate, and seventh in offensive success rate. Meanwhile, Purdue is ranked 119th in EPA margin, 128th in net points/drive, 115th in defensive success rate, and 76th in offensive success rate.

The Buckeyes might be the best team in the country, and Purdue is probably the worst Power Four team.

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Michigan UNDER 16.5 (FanDuel)

Offense has been a struggle for the Wolverines. They’ve scored 17 points or fewer in four games this season and 24 points in two road games. The offense is 102nd in points per drive, partly because they’re ranked 82nd in field position. Indiana’s defense is 11th in points per drive and 11th in field position.

Michigan is one-dimensional, ranked 96th in success rate/dropback and 87th in EPA/dropback. Despite some success running the football, they’re bad on early downs (113th in EPA). You won’t be surprised to learn that IU’s defense is fifth in early down EPA, 16th in EPA/dropback, and 26th in dropback/success rate.

A potential weakness for Indiana is the quality of cover corners after D’Angelo Ponds. Michigan doesn’t have one receiver to scare a defense, let alone two or three. They’re not the team to put this theory to the test.

Yes, Davis Warren has been better in the past two games than in his first three starts in September, but the former walk-on will also make his first throws on the road this season. He has looked rattled when pressured, and I expect him to face some on Saturday. The Hoosiers lead the B1G in sacks (31) and tackles for loss (69)—that’s six sacks and 12 TFLs more than the next team. They have one star in EDGE, Mikail Kamara (9.5 sacks, 14.5 TFLs), and a lot of quality depth.

To have any chance, the defending champs must run the football, which will be tough against Indiana, ranked second nationally in yards per carry allowed (2.52).

This would have been a fun matchup and test against Michigan’s Moore Award-winning offensive lines. Still, this year’s edition has been inconsistent, impacted by injury, and in flux with numerous changes, especially at center and tackle. They will have trouble blocking. Couple that with their lack of explosiveness, and I don’t see many points put up by the Wolverines.

I’m mainly on the Hoosiers because they play good football, and Michigan plays mistake-filled football. Indiana is tenth in turnover margin (+10), and the Wolverines are 102nd (-5). Protecting the football and field position were strengths of the three-time B1G champs from 2021-23, but they are weaknesses as they limp toward bowl eligibility. (I liked the Hoosiers at -13.5 earlier in the week, but seeing 14.5 across the board, it’s a pass.)

Suppose you’re worried about IU looking ahead to Ohio State. Don’t. The game is two weeks away. Curt Cignetti’s teams don’t roll that way. They started slow last week at Michigan State (0-10 after the first quarter). And they haven’t been favored over Michigan in most of our lifetimes. With a potential playoff spot in the balance, this is the biggest IU home game in decades.

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RUTGERS UNDER 20.5 (FanDuel)

The Golden Gophers have bounced back defensively this season and are ranked 16th by SP+. They’re 18th in points/drive, 21st in EPA, and 43rd in success rate, compared to a Rutgers offense that’s 61st in points/drive, 52nd in EPA, and 54th in success rate.

Having a healthy Cody Lindenberg has made an enormous difference. The linebacker leads them in tackles (62) and is excellent in coverage (6 BUs). This defense likes to play downhill and features eight defenders with at least three tackles for loss, led by Jack Henderson (six), who is having an excellent second season as a Gopher.

The Scarlet Knights want to be a running team, but they’re 59th in yards per carry (4.65). Not exactly vintage Wisconsin. In conference games, they’re down to 4.0 YPC. Rutgers has been coy with the status of Kyle Monangai, who left the USC game with a head injury two weeks ago.

Don’t expect much help from former Gophers QB Athan Kaliakmanis, completing 50.6 of his passes in Big Ten games (5.9 YPA) with three TD passes to four INTs.

During Minnesota’s winning streak, the Gophers have held three of their four opponents to 17 points with a PPG of 18.5 (16.8 PPG). They’ve held six of nine opponents to fewer than 20 points. Meanwhile, Rutgers has scored 20 points or less in three of four games during their losing streak, averaging 16.5 PPG during that stretch.

Neither team plays with much tempo: Rutgers is 80th in plays per minute, and Minnesota is 126th. I also expect the Gophers to lean on their running game on the road with success, just as they did last week when Darius Taylor rushed 22 times for 131 yards. RU’s defense is 115th in yards per carry allowed, 122nd in rushing success rate, and 103rd in EPA/rush.

PJ Fleck’s team still plays complimentary football, and it’s hard for the opposing to score when you have the ball.

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Iowa -5.5 UCLA (FanDuel)

We’ve given UCLA proper respect and acknowledged their improved play over the past three weeks. Part of that is due to their opponents: the Bruins got their two wins over a Rutgers team amid a four-game losing streak and Nebraska, which is 2-4 in Big Ten play. The Scarlet Knights and Cornhuskers were tumbling, while the Hawkeyes are surging heading into Friday night.

Iowa isn’t as good as the foursome of Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and PSU, who beat UCLA by an average margin of 20.8 points. But they’re the best team the Bruins have played in a month. Moreover, we don’t need the Hawkeyes to win by three or even two touchdowns.

This is a mismatch metrically: Iowa is 17th on SP+, 22nd in EPA margin, 37th in net points/drive, and fourth in net field position, while UCLA is 75th on SP+, 56th in EPA margin, 121st in net points/drive, and 116th in net field position.

Offensive coordinator Tim Lester is finding a rhythm running the football. The Hawkeyes have scored 40 points in three of their past four games, a stat that would have been unthinkable a year ago. It’s not just Kaleb Johnson (1,279 yards, 7.5 YPC, 19 TDs)—although it’s mostly Kaleb Johnson. Backup Kamari Moulton and new QB1 Brendan Sullivan (4 TD rushes) are picking up over five yards per carry as the team has reached 2,000 yards on the ground behind an offensive line that is in sync. The mobile Sullivan brings fresh air to the huddle, and his dual-threat ability suits the scheme.

Throw in Iowa’s significant edge on special teams, and we’ll be comfortable laying the points on the road even before we dive into the defense (see below). FanDuel is offering promo bets if you bet on UCLA-Iowa on Friday night.

B1G BETS (1 UNIT): Last Week: 2-1 | Season: 12-12 (EVEN)

PENN STATE -12.5 Washington (FanDuel)

Was last week’s result disappointing? Of course. Do we have any bet regret? Maybe a little, but PSU was right there with a chance to the game at 20-20 late in the fourth quarter. We won’t act like it’s the end of the world because the Nittany Lions lost a one-score game to OSU. I get it…Penn State fans are carrying some heavy baggage.

James Franklin’s teams typically don’t experience a handover after losing to the Buckeyes. They have won the next game four straight times (taking out the COVID season), including three wins by 17-plus points.

Washington is the perfect opponent. They’re good enough to get the players’ interest but mediocre enough not to offer too much resistance.

The Huskies are 5-4 but have only played one team that will finish ranked (Indiana), who they lost by 14 points against with their backup QB. Away from home, Washington is 0-4 (one neutral site), with an 0-3 road record on the road: lost 21-18 at Rutgers (RU’s only B1G win), 40-16 at Iowa, and 31-17 at Indiana.

On the road, Will Rogers averages 7.3 YPA with three TDs to three INTs (8.7 YPA, 10 TDs, 1 INT in other games) with seven sacks in three games (9 sacks in the other six games). The offense averages 17 PPG on the road (28.4 PPG at home), and the defense allows 30.7 PPG on the road (11 PPG at home).

You can run on the Huskies, who are ranked 77th in yards per carry allowed and 77th in rush success rate, which PSU should be able to do (15th in success rate). This is an opportunity to get Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen going after they were bottled up by the Buckeyes last week. PSU’s running game has been pretty opponent-reliant for most of the season, while the Huskies have allowed several B1G backs to have some their better games.

Washington’s pass defense has been strong, but let’s look at the B1G QBs they’ve faced: Northwestern’s Jack Lausch (first career road start), RU’s Athan Kaliakmanis, Michigan’s Alex Orji (pulled and benched), Iowa’s Cade McNamara, Indiana’s Tayven Jackson (backup), and USC’s Miller Moss (benched). Not exactly, a Murder’s Row of passers.

Say what you want about PSU’s lack of perimeter weapons. Drew Allar has the Nittany Lions ranked sixth in yards per pass (9.6). Michigan is 131st, Northwestern is 129th, Iowa is 126th, Rutgers is 97th, and USC is 89th.

Finally, Penn State has so much more to play for. Ranked sixth in the CFP, the Nittany Lions will likely host a playoff game if they win out. A week after having to play Ohio State at noon, PSU gets their whiteout game, and Franklin will want to appease the crowd with an impressive win (and cover for boosters?.

As for the Huskies, do we think they will get up to play the spoiler role? They beat hated USC last week, have another old Pac-12 foe, UCLA, on deck, and close the season with rival Oregon. Earlier in the season, UW faced in-state rival Washington State. Northwestern was their first-ever B1G game, and they were very hyped for their rematch with Michigan. You can’t get up for every game, and I don’t believe PSU ranks high on their list.

B1GGER BETS (1.5 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 6-2 (+6 UNITS)

UCLA UNDER 19.5 (FanDuel)

The Iowa defense was a little embarrassed by their poor tackling effort at Michigan State and has responded since then. They didn’t allow Northwestern’s offense to score a single point two weeks ago and held Wisconsin to 10 last week.

The numbers are getting better and better. The Hawkeyes are ranked fifth by SP+, 10th in points/drive allowed, 11th in EPA, 10th in field position, 18th in early down EPA, and 28th in 3rd/4th down success rate. They have also improved to 10th in the fewest plays of 30+ yards allowed and 13th in the fewest plays of 40+ yards.

Iowa is stout in the trenches, as sound as they come at linebacker, with Jay Higgins (94 tackles, 4 PDs, 3 INTs, 2 FFs) and Nick Jackson (64 tackles, 4 PDs, 1 INTs), and much more buttoned up in the secondary with Sebastian Castro back.

It will be challenging for the Bruins to move the ball against this defense. UCLA is 117th in points/drive, 111th in offensive success rate (133rd/rush, 64th/dropback), 140th in field position, 128th in yards per carry, 91st EPA/rush, 115th in early down EPA, and 83rd in 3rd/4th down success rate.

Their only chance is throwing the football—56th in EPA/dropback, 56th in YPA, and 64th in success rate/dropback—where they have been mediocre. The problem is this plays into the strength of Iowa’s defense—12th in EPA/dropback, 26th YPA, and 40th in success rate/dropback.

UCLA has been held to 17 points or less in six of eight games. Make it seven of nine.

B1GGEST BET (2 UNITS): Last Week: 1-0 | Season: 1-2 (-2 UNITS)

None.