NCAAF · 30 minutes ago

College Football Week 5 Best Bets: 7 B1GBets Big Ten Expert Picks

Danny Mogollon

Host · Writer

Last week was rough, and like many others, we’re still not over the under in the Iowa-Michigan game. But the only right side is the winning side. This is the business we’ve chosen.

It’s on to Week 5 with eight more Big Ten games, including a ranked-v-ranked matchup as the No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes visit the No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes. B1G action kicks off tonight as the Northwestern Wildcats open the New Ryan Field against the Penn State Nittany Lions.

B1G BETS 2026 BETTING RECORD

Last Week: 2-6 (-3.5 UNITS)
2026 Season: 13-18-1 (-5.5 UNITS) | ATS Bets: 7-10-1 (-3 UNITS)
Team Totals: 6-7 (-2 UNITS) | Game Totals: 0-1 (-0.5 UNIT)
Not So B1G Bets: 11-10-1 (+1/2 UNIT) | B1G Bets: 2-8 (-6 UNITS)
B1GGER Bets: 0-0 (0 UNITS) | B1GGEST Bets: 0-0 (0 UNITS)

Matriculate down the field with SportsGrid’s FREE Top College Football Picks and College Football Player Prop Picks weekly!

Scared money, don’t make money! Let’s Eat!

NOT SO B1G BET (1/2 UNIT): 11-10-1 (+1/2 UNIT)

Michigan State UNDER 16.5 (@DraftKings)

I thought about taking the game total UNDER in this matchup in Madison. Still, I’m open to Wisconsin being better than I thought (though I wouldn’t read too much into their PSU win), while still skeptical of a Michigan State defense likely to be without its leader, LB Jordan Hall (doubtful).

More significant is the injury suffered by RB Cam Edwards, probably Sparty’s best player. The UConn transfer was one of the few portal additions that I was optimistic about.

In two Power 4 games, the Spartans have scored 10 points against Notre Dame and 13 versus Nebraska.

Michigan State’s offense is 87th in EPA/play and 50th in success rate. They really struggle in early downs (110th in EPA), and without Edwards it’s hard to see how they’re going to improve. It’s also a bad matchup against a Wisconsin defense that is 8th in early-down EPA, 10th in success rate, and 17th in EPA/play.

Indiana OVER 40.5 (Caesars)

I know Indiana hasn’t looked as dominant as last season, but the metrics still point to a superior offense. They’re 4th in EPA/play, 6th in yards/play, and 14th in success rate.

Even with some missed throws, Josh Hoover has completed 70 percent of his passes for 10.6 YPA with 11 TD passes to no INTs. Not too shabby.

Plenty of big-play opportunities await against a Rutgers defense ranked 113th in yards/play, 108th in EPA/play, and 97th in success rate. Who will cover the duo of Charlie Becker (19-370-6 TDs) and Nick Marsh (16-221-3 TDs)?

Backup RB Lee Beebe Jr. (398 yards) is coming off a career day (203 yards vs. Northwestern), and the Hoosiers have good news: RB1 Turbo Richards (398 yards) is listed as probable on the availability report.

When IU isn’t shredding the Scarlet Knights through the air, they’ll pick up yards in chunks on the ground. I have not seen a better group of run-blocking wideouts than Indiana’s or a worse tackling defense than Rutgers puts on the field. That’s the perfect recipe for some long runs.

Ohio State -14 IOWA (BetMGM)

This is mostly a fade of Iowa, who is getting a lot of love this week. Some have the Hawkeyes winning ten or 11 games after their upset of Michigan. They really need to slow down.

Kirk Ferentz’s team has played two Power 4 opponents. They beat Iowa State 16-13 and were lucky to beat Michigan (7.3% postgame win expectancy). People are throwing around the term “Iowa-ed.” Yes, the Hawkeyes used a punt return touchdown to stay in the game and played hard to the final whistle. They also allowed the Wolverines 6.31 yards per play.

That’s not typical for an Iowa “ugly win.”

The Hawkeyes defense isn’t as talented as it has been in years past. The secondary is vulnerable, and they lack a top pass rusher, which is how you give Ohio State’s offense trouble.

Julian Sayin to Jeremiah Smith is the most dangerous combination in football. He’s an unstoppable force and should open up other weapons, including the run game. Even without as many elite weapons as we’re used to seeing for OSU, this offense is clicking. This is not the week the Hawkeyes can afford to be without S Tyler Brown (out), who is often their last line of defense.

The Buckeyes already have a loss on their ledger and know they cannot afford to drop this game. Iowa’s win in Ann Arbor certainly should have OSU’s attention, and Ryan Day has never forgotten their 2017 loss in Kinnick.

The Hawkeyes typically don’t get blown out, except when they play a top five team.

Iowa’s Last 5 Games vs. Top 5 Teams

2024 at #3 Ohio State – Lost 35-7
2023 vs. #2 Michigan – Lost 26-0
2022 at #2 Ohio State – Lost 54-10
2022 vs. #2 Michigan – Lost 27-14
2021 vs. #2 Michigan – Lost 42-3

The Hawkeyes have dropped seven straight as a double-digit underdog, including 0-7 ATS, and have lost by an average of 29.3 PPG.

B1G BET (1 UNIT): 2-8 (-6 UNITS)

IOWA UNDER 15.5 (DraftKings)

Even more than Ohio State laying the points, I love the UNDER on Iowa’s team total.

Somehow, they managed to score 20 points in Ann Arbor, but if you watched the game, you know they were closer to getting shut out than hitting the 20-point mark, helped by a 100-yard kick return.

Even with the special teams score, the Hawkeyes needed two tipped passes to turn into completions (two rare explosive plays) to set up the offense’s two touchdowns. Not to mention a dumb 15-yard penalty by the Wolverines on the final drive and a Michigan injury that stopped the clock before the final play.

We didn’t see anything from Iowa’s offense in the Big House to suggest they’ll sustain success against a top defense: not their 40 percent success rate (27th percentile) or 4.9 yards per play (24th percentile), which were both aided by those tipped passes.

They’ve played two Power 4 defenses and have looked bad both times. Remember, they managed 16 points, 6.4 YPA, and 3.2 YPC against Iowa State. Against Michigan it was worse: 6.5 YPA and 2.4 YPC.

I have my questions about an OSU defense that couldn’t always get Illinois off the field last week, but I expect that will have them even more focused and less likely to overlook the Hawkeyes. There’s still a lot of talent—more than enough to shut down what is still a below-average Iowa attack.

Here are a couple of nuggets from Chris “the Bear” Fallica: In those aforementioned seven games as double-digit underdogs, Iowa has never scored more than 14 points. Day’s teams are 26-0 as double-digit road favorites and have never allowed more than 16 points in those matchups, with the defense giving up 8.4 PPG.

Michigan -5.5 MINNESOTA (@Caesars)

Did anyone actually watch the Michigan-Iowa game? The win probability was off the charts, as the Wolverines outgained the Hawkeyes by 145 yards, averaged 6.31 yards per play to 4.90, and had an EPA of 6.61 to 2.92. This line moved from Michigan -8.5 last week to 5.5. Overreaction is an understatement.

Let’s not focus on that game alone.

Before you continue reading… guess where Michigan ranks nationally in EPA/play and success rate?

After four games, the Wolverines are 16th in the country in EPA/play and 14th in success rate. How much lower did you guess? This is a good team, maybe a really good team if they clean some things up. I’m here to buy low on Kyle Whittingham’s team.

Bryce Underwood (276 yards, season-high 9.9 YPA vs. Phil Parker) is coming off probably his best game as a college player, and he has two legit weapons in JJ Buchanan (team-best 396 yards, 19.8 YPC, 4 TDs) and Andrew Marsh (team-best 22 receptions). They are 17th in EPA/pass.

Surprisingly, the only negative metric for Michigan’s offense is their 96th-ranked EPA/rush. Given their personnel and OC Jason Beck’s track record, their running game was expected to be the team’s strength.

Minnesota’s defense is 68th in EPA/rush and 89th in defensive success rate against the run. It’s a chance for Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter to break out.

The Gophers are an average team ranked 47th in EPA/play and 51st in success rate. They got a nice win at Washington, but what if that result was more about the Huskies?

Going into last week, Michigan was 21st in SP+ and Minnesota was 51st. Now, the Wolverines sit at 22nd and the Gophers at 52nd. Tell me again why this line moved three points and through the key number of seven?

Michigan wins by more than a touchdown and brings the Little Brown Jug back to Ann Arbor!

MINNESOTA UNDER 18.5 (@FanDuel)

The Wolverines are winning at the line of scrimmage week in and week out, and should dominate what is far from a vintage Gophers offensive line.

Michigan is stout upfront with four defensive ends who have multiple tackles for loss (9.5 sacks, 14.5 FTLs from the quartet). As does linebacker Troy Bowles (3 TFLs), who leads the team with 31 tackles and has come into his own as a Year 1 starter.

The secondary is among the best in the country and should match up well with Minnesota’s receivers.

The numbers back it up: 11th in EPA/play and 12th in success rate. They are 17th in available yards allowed, compared to the Gophers offense, ranked 81st.

Minnesota’s offense is very pedestrian: 84th in EPA/play and 67th in success rate. The offensive line’s lack of push limits them on the ground (103rd in EPA/rush). With their top two centers out for the season, they were forced to move guard Greg Johnson inside. In addition to being without senior starting center Ashton Beers, guard Jaden Ball (out) will also miss Saturday’s game.

Staying on the field will be an issue for the Gophers, who are 94th in 3rd/4th down success rate against Michigan’s athletic defense (17th in 3rd/4th down success rate).

USC -8.5 Washington (@DraftKings)

In previous weeks, we’ve followed up by backing a team that failed us the prior week. We’re not doing that with Washington, which has remained very underwhelming despite playing all four of its games in Seattle. They’re an unimpressive 3-1, which has dropped them out of the polls even before their upset defeat to Minnesota last Saturday.

Now they go on the road. Against a ranked opponent. Even when they’re clicking, both have been an issue for the Huskies.

In two Big Ten seasons, Washington is 2-7 on the road in conference play and 1-8 ATS, with their lone cover coming at UCLA in Week 12 last season during the Bruins’ disastrous season. Under Jedd Fisch, they are 1-5 (straight up and ATS) against ranked teams, with their lone cover coming at home against a Michigan team that finished the regular season 6-6. Fisch’s teams are also 1-7 ATS as underdogs.

QB Demond Williams isn’t the same player on the road, where his numbers dropped to 7.5 YPA (9.6 at home), with nine TDs and six INTs (12-2 at home) last season. Game on Paper has the Huskies offense ranked 106th in EPA/play and 74th in success rate.

The offensive line isn’t playing well, and the Huskies are one-dimensional offensively with their top three running backs all out.

The best unit on either side is USC’s offense, ranked third in offensive success rate and EPA/drive. Washington’s defense has been mostly good, but they haven’t faced anything close to an offense as explosive as the Trojans.

In home starts, Jayden Maiava has thrown 28 TD passes and four INTs. With Trent Mosley (questionable) trending toward a return, he may have a full arsenal at his disposal, with fellow freshman Kayden Dixon Wyatt (25-372) stepping up as a legit WR1. NC State transfer Terrell Anderson made his debut last week, catching two passes for 50 yards against Oregon.

A lot of people are jumping off the Lincoln Riley bandwagon after last week’s loss to the Ducks. Big picture, I’m not pushing back. But let’s not overreact. They are who we thought they were, including coming up small against tougher opponents.

Another Fallica “Bear Byte”: the Trojans are on a 14-game regular-season winning streak against unranked opponents, while putting up 38.5 PPG in those games.