Michigan Wolverines 2026 College Football Preview & Predictions

The post-Jim Harbaugh era hasn’t been a lot of fun for the Michigan faithful. Sherrone Moore was a disaster as a successor. Much worse than his lackluster 16-8 record would indicate. All you need to know is that when you Google him, the first thing you see is a mug shot.

Michigan Wolverines Snapshot

• 2025 Record: 9-4 (7-2) | Big Ten Finish: 4th (tied)
• P. Poll: No. 16 | Coaches Poll: No. 16 | SP+: No. 15
• Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham (1st Year) | Record: 177-88 | UM Record: 0-0
• Offensive Coordinator: Jason Beck (1st Year)
• Defensive Coordinator: Jay Hill (1st Year)

The Wolverines were lucky that Kyle Whittingham was there for the hiring. His teams are always tough, which fits Michigan’s brand perfectly, and disciplined, which is exactly what the program needs at this point.

Michigan Futures Odds (DraftKings)

• Regular Season Wins: OVER 7.5 -186 | UNDER 7.5 +144
• Conference Wins: OVER 5.5 +110 | UNDER 5.5 -130
• National Championship Odds: +4000 | CFB Playoff Odds: YES +265 | NO -350
• B1G Championship Odds: +1700 | To Reach B1GCG: +550

As in both polls and most rankings, the Wolverines find themselves in Tier 2 of the Big Ten, behind the B1G 3. Michigan is right on USC’s heels as a Big Ten and College Football Playoff sleeper. They are ranked 15th in terms of winning the national championship and making the CFP, right between the Trojans and Penn State. The projection is to win fewer games than a year ago, largely due to a more daunting conference schedule in 2026.

Michigan Preview: Why You Should Buy

• Return 72 Percent of Offensive Production
• Return 4/5 of the Starting Offensive Line
• Leading Passer, Rusher, and Receiver Are Back

This is an extremely talented offense, and it could be the first time in quite some time that the Wolverines win because of this side of the ball. Putting QB Bryce Underwood (No. 1 recruit in the 2025 class) aside, Michigan should have an elite rushing attack with one of the nation’s better one-two punches. Jordan Marshall (932 yards) averaged an impressive 6.2 YPC with 10 rushing TDs while sharing the duties. He’s joined by 5-star freshman Savion Hiter, who many have picked as the freshman of the year nationally. Throw in Underwood’s elite running ability (506 yards on 68 rushes when taking out sacks), and this could be the most dynamic rushing attack in the country.

Four out of five starters return upfront, led by C Jake Guarnera, who was their most consistent blocker. This is a deep and talented group that features six players with some starting experience, while second-year man Andrew Babalola (injured in 2025) is considered the most talented offensive lineman. Sensational freshman Andrew Marsh (40 of 45 receptions came in final 8 games) already has rapport with Underwood (651 yards). Michigan has also added two transfers in sophomores JJ Buchanan (427 yards with Utah) and Jaime Ffrench (5-star from Texas) that will elevate the receiver room. Not to be understated, new OC Jason Beck is a major upgrade.

Michigan Preview: Why You Should Sell

• 3/4 of the Defensive Line is Gone (All to the NFL)
• Top 3 Linebackers Are Gone (1 to NFL, 1 Transfer to OU)

The front six of Michigan’s defense, normally a staple, needs rebuilding. The lone returnee is DT Trey Pierce. There’s some experience with him on the interior, but don’t expect to see any All-Americans emerge. The upside at the EDGE spot is much higher, but there isn’t a proven performer other than Utah transfer John Henry Daley (11.5 sacks in 2025). He’s a stud if he’s healthy, as he’s coming off a season-ending injury. Former top-100 recruit Nate Marshall is back, and they’ve added five-star Carter Meadows, but it’s TBD if either is ready. It appears Dominic Nichols will win the job opposite Daley; if so, Week 1 will be his first career start.

Backing them up, it was a wide-open competition at linebacker with three former backups batting along with transfer Nathaniel Staehling. Staehling is coming off a strong season but was a one-year starter at South Dakota State (FCS). The trio of Troy Bowles, Chase Taylor, and Nathaniel Owusu-Boateng has no career starts between them.

Michigan Breakout Player: Savion Hiter

• 12 Overall Recruit per 247Sports Composite Rankings
• 1 Running Back per 247Sports Composite Rankings

There’s too much hype around the true freshman for him not to be Michigan’s breakout star. When they handed out their preseason awards, CBS Sports named Savion Hiter their Freshman of the Year. A powerful runner, Hiter has all the tools in the shed, with the ability to run over would-be tacklers or run away from them with his speed. He also has the balance and vision needed to be a star at this level. OC Jason Beck has spoken about having Hiter and Marshall in the backfield at the same time, and considering how his team at Utah ran the ball last season, it’s probably not just talk.

Michigan X-Factor: Bryce Underwood

• 2,428 Passing Yards (7.2 YPA)
• 392 Rushing Yards (4.5 YPC)
• 11 TDs-9 INTs, 6 Rushing TDs

There might not be a player with a bigger perceived gap between floor and ceiling than Bryce Underwood. I’ve heard a couple of members of the national media wonder if he could get benched as early as Game 2 (vs. OU), which sounds like hyperbole. That’s not to say he doesn’t have a lot of room for growth; he does, but his freshman campaign wasn’t as bad as some have made it out to be. Underwood averaged a solid 7.2 YPA despite an average group of pass catchers (at best) who dropped a ton of balls. He also picked up over seven yards per carry if you take out sacks/kneel downs.

The No. 1 overall recruit flashed his playmaking potential but left a lot to be desired when it came to decision-making. At times, the game looked to be moving too fast for him; his mechanics were sloppy, and his TD-INT ratio wasn’t good enough. But the talent is all there. Let’s consider that he was a just-turned-18 true freshman in August, playing for a head coach who was a mess, a mediocre OC, with no QB coach. In addition to the natural progression a player makes in his second year on campus, will anyone benefit more from a coaching change than Underwood?

Michigan Schedule Analysis

• SP+ SOS Rank: 5
• Phil Steele Toughest Schedules: 2

To match their nine regular-season wins from 2025, the Wolverines will have to be better. That’s how tough the schedule is. The good news is they play eight home games. The bad news is two of their road games are at No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Oregon. Among their home games, Michigan hosts No. 6 Indiana, No. 10 Oklahoma, No. 18 Penn State, and No. 22 Iowa. 

Michigan gets four of the top five Big Ten teams and only two (Rutgers, Michigan State) of the bottom five. That’s the B1G 3, a fourth top-10 team, and six ranked teams in total. One positive aspect is that their trip to Eugene is the only time the Wolverines have to travel multiple time zones.

Michigan Best Bet, Long Shot, and Prediction: OVER/UNDER 7.5 Wins

• Win Total: OVER 7.5 (-186 @ DraftKings)
• Best Bet: OVER 5.5 Conference Wins (+110 @ DraftKings)
• Long Shot: Make the CFP (+265 @ DraftKings)

At 7.5, I love the Wolverines even laying serious odds. If that’s too much for you, I’d also take the over at plus money for OVER 8.5 wins (+152 on FanDuel). To reach nine wins, Michigan will have to beat one top-10 team, and they are slight favorites against Oklahoma in Week 2 in the Big House. They must also hold serve in their other eight games, which I am confident they will. Having Penn State, Iowa, and UCLA all at home is huge. The Wolverines have a clear edge in talent in those matchups. Considering travel/home field, those would be challenging road games.

Now, if you bet the Maize and Blue to win over 5.5 conference games, you still get plus money, and the Wolverines could pull off no upsets and need to win their six Big Ten games as favorites versus Iowa, Minnesota, PSU, Rutgers, MSU, and UCLA. Four of those games are at home. If last season’s team, with Moore coaching and a true freshman QB, won all the games they were supposed to, why can’t Whittingham and company? Ten wins would make Michigan a lock for the CFP, and it’s possible they could make it at 9-3.