Ranking College Football’s National Championship Contender Tiers

20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

We'll know a lot about whether this Notre Dame team will be a contender or pretender early on. With a showdown against Texas A&M to kick things off, the Fighting Irish know they'll need to make a statement. Duke transfer Riley Leonard will look to lead a new look offense for Notre Dame, while Xavier Watts and Benjamin Morrison lead one of the nation's top secondaries. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +6000

Regular Season Win Total: 10.5 | Over (+128) | Under (-158)

1. Texas Longhorns

The Texas Longhorns were right there in the national title mix year, falling just short in the College Football Playoff against Washington. It's hard to expect anything less in 2024, with quarterback Quinn Ewers returning behind a stout offensive line. There's minimal question marks for the Longhorns on offense, even with some personnel turnover. However, on defense, the Longhorns need to clean up their secondary if they want to capture their first national title since 2005. Through three weeks, the defense looks solid, and the Longhorns went on the road to blowout No.10 Michigan. It's been a great start to the year for Texas, with an eventual big test vs. Georgia determining how they should be ranked in this tier. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +480

Regular Season Win Total: 10.5 | Over (+144) | Under (-178)

2. Georgia Bulldogs

It's another season of national title or bust for Kirby Smart and the Georgia Bulldogs. After failing to qualify for the College Football Playoff last year, the Bulldogs enter 2024 as the favorite to win it all. Carson Beck returns as a Heisman hopeful quarterback for the Bulldogs. Georgia looks fit to be one of the nations top threats on both sides of the football, equating to their status a perennial juggernaut in college football. Will a scary schedule hinder the Bulldogs chances, or will their talented roster get them over the hump for the third time in four years? The Bulldogs got their first taste of a scare in Week 3 on the road in Kentucky. With a week off prior to visiting Alabama, how will the Bulldogs respond? 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +400

Regular Season Win Total: 10.5 | Over (-122) | Under (+100)

3. Ohio State Buckeyes

It can't feel good for the Ohio State Buckeyes to have suffered a pair of losses in a row to their biggest rivals in Michigan. In addition, watching them win a national title probably didn't feel great, either. The Buckeyes took their anger out on the transfer portal, loading up at key positions by adding quarterback Will Howard, safety Caleb Downs, and running back Quinshon Judkins. The Buckeyes are loaded all over the football field. Will this be the year that Ohio State gets back on top in the rivalry and takes home another national championship? 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +340

Regular Season Win Total: 10.5 | Over (-150) | Under (+10)

Tier 2: Elite Threats

Behind the cream of the crop, these programs can sleep well at night knowing they're right there in the national title mix. 

4. Oregon Ducks

Even with Oregon headed into the Big Ten, we're not overly concerned with how they'll adjust. Head coach Dan Lanning has done a bang up job since being hired from Georgia, and transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel is the current favorite to win the Heisman trophy on the FanDuel Sportsbook. Aside from adding Gabriel via the portal, the Ducks also upgraded their defense the same way, which should prove to be beneficial for a program that needed the depth. It's hard to not think of the Ducks as a real national title threat. It's been a weird start to the season for the Ducks, and there's at least more question marks about this group than we originally had. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +1000

Regular Season Win Total: 10.5 | Over (-110) | Under (110)

5. Alabama Crimson Tide

It feels weird to not have the Alabama Crimson Tide in the top tier, but after Nick Saban retired and multiple key players hit the transfer portal, that's exactly where this program finds itself. It almost feels dumb to undersell what the potential of this team still is. The Crimson Tide are still a high quality contender, and Jalen Milroe fits the bill as a real Heisman trophy contender as a returning quarterback. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +750

Regular Season Win Total: 9.5 | Over (+116) | Under (-142)

6. Tennessee Volunteers

We might be one year away from the Tennessee Volunteers jumping multiple tiers on this list. First year quarterback Nico Iamaleava has the makeup of a star, which will fit perfectly into how Josh Heupel likes to run his offenses. As it always seems to be the case in Tennessee, can the defense improve enough to really elevate them into contender status? So far, it really looks like it. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +1200

Regular Season Win Total: 8.5 | Over (-162) | Under (+132)

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Tier 3: Contenders With Cracks

All of these teams can win it all, but they don't come without real question marks. 

7. Ole Miss Rebels

The Ole Miss Rebels took a major step as a program last year under Lane Kiffin, and they have a chance to take another in 2024. With quarterback Jaxson Dart returning, there's a lot of familiarity on offense. In addition, Kiffin and company played the transfer portal as well as any team in the country, which should help elevate their defense and national title odds to the next level. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +1100

Regular Season Win Total: 9.5 | Over (110) | Under (-110)

8. Miami Hurricanes

Mario Cristobal has a strong roster in Miami heading into 2024. With a legitimate quarterback prospect in Cam Ward leading the way, the Hurricanes should take another step forward as a program this season. We'll need to see if the defense can do enough to get this group by, but there are some real reasons to be bullish about this program moving forward. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +1600

Regular Season Win Total: 9.5 | Over (+138) | Under (-170)

Tier 4: Darkhorse Contenders

There's a lot of promise within this group. Still, there's a reason they sit more than an arms reach away from the title conversation. 

9. Penn State Nittany Lions

We've continued to wait for James Franklin to lead this Penn State program into the College Football Playoff. Will this finally be the year they make the leap into that status? With the expanded field, it's pretty easy to see a legitimate path for the Nittany Lions. Drew Allar looks promising as a Heisman candidate, but does he have the weapons to elevate this group to another tier? 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +2000

Regular Season Win Total: 9.5 | Over (-172) | Under (+140)

Tier 5: A lot Has to Go Right

A lot will need to go right in this tier in order for them to make noise in the College Football Playoff. 

10. Missouri Tigers

With a bulk of key starters returning on offense for the Missouri Tigers including quarterback Brady Cook, there's a lot to like about the potential this program has. Despite playing in the loaded SEC, the Tigers have one of the more favorable schedules of the bunch this year. If the defense can hold up, the Tigers can make real noise. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +5500

Regular Season Win Total: 9.5 | Over (+146) | Under (-18)

11. LSU Tigers

There's a lot of promise for the LSU Tigers entering 2024. Garrett Nussmeier will debut as their starting signal-caller, and he'll have the luxury of playing in front of one of the best offensive lines in the country. Although there are legitimate question marks for this team on defense, the Tigers have the makings of a program that can contend for a national title as soon as this year under Brian Kelly. We need to see more from this group to really elevate them into that tier.

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +6000

Regular Season Win Total: 9.5 | Over (+138) | Under (-17)

12. USC Trojans

Promising young quarterback Miller Moss is set to take over the reigns for the USC Trojans in 2024. The upside is real with this group when you factor in their skill position players on offense, but there are definite questions on defense. Can this group of defenders adjust quickly enough to really make the Trojans into a dark horse contender? 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +5000

Regular Season Win Total: 7.5 | Over (-105) | Under (-115)

13. Texas A&M Aggies

New head coach Mike Elko should get more out of this roster than we've seen in prior seasons. With quarterback Conner Weigman set make headlines in Year 1 as a starter, the Aggies have the chance to be in the mix until the end if they play to their potential. Although that's a big if, don't discount where this program is headed. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +10000

Regular Season Win Total: 8.5 | Over (-132) | Under (+106)

14. Michigan Wolverines

After winning the national title last year, many expect the Michigan Wolverines to take a step back in 2024. How big that step will be depends on a multitude of questions. There was a pretty big overhaul for the Wolverines this offseason, but they still boast one of the top defenses in the country, led by Mason Graham and Will Johnson. Will the quarterback situation sort itself out early on? Neither candidate has done enough to separate, but at least Michigan managed to pick up a big win at home vs. USC. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +12000

Regular Season Win Total: 8.5 | Over (-162) | Under (+12)

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Tier 6: You Never Know

There are some strong pieces in these programs, but can they matchup with some of the top programs in the country? 

15. Clemson Tigers

The Clemson Tigers have taken a step back as a contender over the last two seasons. Still, Dabo Swinney's program is packed with talent, they just haven't been able to put it all together recently. The Tigers will have to take on Georgia and Florida State, but other than that, there aren't many heavy hitters on this schedule. Swinney could very well lead this team into being in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +4000

Regular Season Win Total: 8.5 | Over (-172) | Under (+140)

16. Utah Utes

The Utah Utes remain a perennially strong program. The issue for  Kyle Whittingham's program is that they just haven't been able to reach the heights of the top teams in the country. That's not a knack on this team, though, which projects to be very good again in 2024. Does very good equate to being in the mix for a national championship? Time will tell for the Utes. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +4500

Regular Season Win Total: 9.5 | Over (-144) | Under (+118)

Tier 7: The Building Tier

Although these teams likely won't compete for a national championship in 2024, the building blocks are there in the future for their respective programs. 

17. Oklahoma Sooners

It's not difficult to get excited about Jackson Arnold as an upcoming star quarterback in college football. Arnold is set to take the reigns in 2024 for the Sooners, and although there will be growing pains, the talent is crystal clear. With a quarterback like Arnold lining up under center, the Sooners will be on upset watch for the top contenders in the SEC this season. The question is, after some struggles vs. Tennessee, will he continue to be the guy moving forward?

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +10000

Regular Season Win Total: 7.5 | Over (-110) | Under (-110)

18. Kansas State Wildcats

Much like with Jackson Arnold at Oklahoma, Avery Johnson gives fans a good reason to be excited about the quarterback position at Kansas State. If Johnson can develop into high quality signal-caller, the Wildcats might just exceed expectations in 2024 and beyond. There are some question marks on this roster, and those showed their ugly head in Week 4. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +20000

Regular Season Win Total: 9.5 | Over (+118) | Under (-144)

19. Nebraska Cornhuskers

The potential was always there for the Nebraska Cornhuskers to make a big jump this season, and they certainly looked like a team capable of doing that in Week 1 of the regular season. This roster has a defense that can compete, and if Dylan Raiola looks the part as a starting quarterback, this team could make some real noise this season. The Cornhuskers have been a team to keep an eye on through Week 4, even coming off a loss. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +40000

20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

We'll know a lot about whether this Notre Dame team will be a contender or pretender early on. With a showdown against Texas A&M to kick things off, the Fighting Irish know they'll need to make a statement. Duke transfer Riley Leonard will look to lead a new look offense for Notre Dame, while Xavier Watts and Benjamin Morrison lead one of the nation's top secondaries. 

NCAAF FBS Championship Winner 2024-25 Odds: +6000

Regular Season Win Total: 10.5 | Over (+128) | Under (-158)