NCAAF · 3 months ago

Ranking the Hot Seat Coaches in College Football

TJ Inman

Host · Writer

20. Dave Aranda - Baylor Bears
Dave Aranda was as good as gone, but the Baylor Bears rallied in the second half of the 2024 season, and Aranda is still the head coach in Waco. He is now entering his sixth campaign at Baylor, and the Bears return a good corps on offense and quarterback Sawyer Robertson. This is the year that it needs to click, and if Aranda is only 31-30 in his career. If the season is a flop and the Bears fail to even contend for the Big 12 title, it could get interesting in Waco.

Week One: Auburn at Baylor (+2.5)
1. Billy Napier - Florida Gators
Billy Napier enters the 2025 season with as much job pressure as any coach in the country. He was very nearly fired last season before a late surge from his Florida Gators kept him in Gainesville for another season. He is now just 19-19 in his three seasons at Florida, along with a 10-14 record in the SEC. Napier’s future has been firmly tied to quarterback DJ Lagway, and his close ties to the budding star were considered the main reason he was given another season to prove his worth. That written, Lagway’s health is a question mark again, and the Gators have another tough schedule this season. If they fail to exceed expectations or get off to a slow start, Napier may not survive another season in The Swamp.

2025 Win Total: 7.5
2. Brent Venables - Oklahoma Sooners
Brent Venables has a lot of ties to Oklahoma University but those ties will not get him another season in Norman if 2025 is not better than 2024 was. The Sooners were 6-7 in his first season and 10-3 in his second year but things fell apart last year as the offense cratered and they went just 6-7 and 2-6 in SEC play. OU hired a new offensive coordinator and paid big money for his quarterback (John Mateer) to fix the attack. If that step does not work, Venables will be gone. Oklahoma did not make the move to the SEC to be a sub-.500 team in conference.

2025 Win Total: 6.5
3. Mike Locksley - Maryland Terrapins
The first Big Ten coach on this list is Maryland’s Mike Locksley. Locksley has been the head coach for the Terrapins since 2019 and is now 33-41 with a 16-40 record in the Big Ten. He actually had things rolling a bit in the middle of his tenure as the Terps went 7-6 in 2021, 8-5 in 2022, and 8-5 in 2023, but recruiting has stagnated, and they slid back to 4-8 without Taulia Tagovailoa at quarterback last season. He still has not had a winning record in the Big Ten in any season, and there is nothing to suggest the program is headed in the right direction. His current contract only runs through 2027, so the buyout would be manageable if things don’t turn around this season.

2025 Win Total: 4.5
4. Brent Pry - Virginia Tech Hokies
The once-proud Virginia Tech program appears to be miles away from the glory days of the Frank Beamer era and Brent Pry does not appear to be the man to get them even back to competing in the top-half of the ACC. Pry is now just 16-21 through three seasons and they are merely treading water, coming off a 6-6 season and a loss in the bowl game. He revamped the coaching staff again and turned over the roster again with more than 30 new transfers. The buyout is reportedly less than $6.5 million, something that could be managed relatively easily if they choose to make a move.

2025 Win Total: 6.5
5. Sam Pittman - Arkansas Razorbacks
“I’m popular now,” Sam Pittman said at SEC Media Days in 2024. “Just the wrong way, I’m hot.” Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman acknowledged his reality as he enters his sixth season and he needs a season that far exceeds expectations in order to hang on in Fayetteville. Pittman is an Arkansas lifer and that probably bought him another year but being liked only goes so far. He’d be owed north of $10 million in a buyout, but that would not be an issue for Arkansas boosters. They begin the season with Alabama A&M and then a tricky game against Arkansas State before games against Ole Miss, Memphis, and Notre Dame. If they are floundering after five games and heading into a bye, Bobby Petrino could get the nod as the interim head coach to close out the season.

2025 Win Total: 5.5
6. Brent Brennan - Arizona Wildcats
Brent Brennan is only entering his second season but the leash is apparently short in Tucson and he’s squarely on the hot seat. Expectations were high after Jedd Fisch left for Washington but guys like Tet McMillan and Noah Fifita stayed at Arizona. The Wildcats were mostly dreadful, going 4-8 and just 2-7 in the Big 12. With Texas and Oklahoma bolting to the SEC, every remaining school in the Big 12 sees an opportunity to compete for the league title and Brennan was far off the pace in his first season. He needs a much better year in 2025 to get a chance at a third season.

2025 Win Total: 5.5
7. Hugh Freeze - Auburn Tigers
Hugh Freeze is on this list but he has a pretty clear path to pull himself off of it. In fact, there’s a clear path to an extension on The Plains for Freeze. Since the day he was hired at Auburn, the controversial head coach has pointed towards 2025 as the season when things would take off for his Auburn program. The fans have been patient through seasons of 6-7 and 5-7 but the talent is in place to take a jump this campaign. If quarterback Jackson Arnold cannot make good on his potential and the good high school recruiting done by Freeze and his staff is squandered, time is up for Freeze. However, it’s equally likely that Auburn is much-improved and they win eight or nine games against a relatively manageable SEC slate and Auburn ponies up for an extension.

2025 Win Total: 7.5
8. Tony Elliott - Virginia Cavaliers
The Virginia administration wants it to work with Tony Elliott. The former Clemson assistant has had a rough three seasons, going just 11-23 and losing heartbreaker after heartbreaker (4-8 in one-score games) as the offense fell apart last season. They put their money behind him with an alleged $15 million NIL war chest to load up in the transfer portal. How many wins are required from Elliott to save his job? The schedule is favorable as they miss Clemson and Miami and get three easy non-conference games at home. It feels like just getting to a bowl game won’t be enough.

2025 Win Total: 6.5
9. Scott Satterfield - Cincinnati Bearcats
Scott Satterfield was an uninspiring hire, and his tenure has gone just about as one would expect. Satterfield fled Louisville before the heat got turned up on him, and he took over for Luke Fickell when Fickell left for Wisconsin. The move hasn’t worked out great for either side, actually. Satterfield went 3-9 (1-8) in 2023 and 5-7 (3-6) in 2024 and is now just 4-14 in the Big 12 and 8-16 overall. What are reasonable expectations for Cincinnati in the Big 12? Surely they should be better than bringing up the rear.

2025 Win Total: 6.5
10. Sonny Cumbie - Lousiana Tech Bulldogs
Group of Five coaches have to deal with the “hot seat” as well and the first one on this list is Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie. Once considered an offensive whiz, Cumbie’s attack was toothless last season and the former Texas Tech quarterback is just 11-26 in his three seasons as the head coach in Ruston. That includes an 8-16 record in Conference USA and that’s not good enough for a school with access to good talent. Cumbie is leaning on a young quarterback this season to try and jumpstart the offense but the Bulldogs are moving to the Sun Belt after this season and they’ll be looking for a new head coach to lead that transition if 2025 isn’t a success.

2025 Win Total: 6.5
11. Mike Norvell - Florida State Seminoles
We have now entered an interesting part of the “hot seat” list: coaches that have underperformed but have large buyouts that make a change quite difficult. Mike Norvell is the head coach at Florida State and him being on the hot seat was unthinkable in 2023 as the Seminoles went 13-1 and won the ACC Championship. Since getting left out of the College Football Playoff, it has all fallen apart. High school recruiting is not where it should be and the Noles went 2-10 in 2024 with just one win over an FBS team. Norvell’s buyout is reportedly $54.4 million and that keeps his seat from boiling but another poor season in Tallahassee will probably turn up the heat, despite the high buyout.

2025 Win Total: 7.5
12. Joey McGuire - Texas Tech Red Raiders
Joey McGuire has done a fine job at Texas Tech but he’s on this list because of the immense pressure he’s going to face to perform in 2025. Texas Tech has gone “all in” for this season, investing huge sums into the roster and bringing in a bunch of transfers to supplement an already competitive Texas Tech squad. McGuire is popular in the state of Texas and he went 8-5 in 2022, 7-6 in 2023 and 8-5 in 2024 but the defense has been a consistent issue and the Red Raiders boosters are paying for much more than middling results. If Texas Tech does not at least contend for the Big 12 Championship, McGuire could be in trouble.

2025 Win Total: 8.5
13. Mark Stoops - Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is not an easy job and Mark Stoops has done very well but there is a feeling from many in Lexington that things have gone stale in Lexington and a new voice is needed. The fact that Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is a former Kentucky player and could be had after this season adds to the intrigue. Since going 10-3 in 2021, the Wildcats have gone 7-6 (3-5), 7-6 (3-5) and 4-8 (1-7) and the offense does not appear close to figuring out any answers. The issue? Mark Stoops has a buyout of $37.5 million and that massive amount must be paid by the university in 60 days or fewer. In short, Stoops is either going to leave of his own accord or continue to prowl the sidelines in Lexington.

2025 Win Total: 4.5
14. Luke Fickell - Wisconsin Badgers
Luke Fickell made the move from Cincinnati to Wisconsin and he was expected to elevate the Badgers in the Big Ten after the Paul Chryst era was deemed to be not quite good enough. Fickell made the curious decision to change the identity of the program by hiring an Air Raid disciple as his offensive coordinator and, to put it bluntly, it did not work. Fickell is just 13-13 and has a losing record as he enters his third season. They were just 3-6 in the Big Ten last season and Wisconsin has a really difficult schedule to navigate this season. If the campaign is another losing one, will the Badgers make a move? Given the contract, that seems unlikely. He originally signed a seven-year deal for $55 million. He has five more seasons and would currently be owed more than $40 million. Yes, Wisconsin will need to pay him the full value of the contract and it will be multiple seasons before that buyout number would be manageable.

2025 Win Total: 5.5
15. Lincoln Riley - USC Trojans
Lincoln Riley is not really on the “hot seat” just yet. He’s 26-14 at USC and is just a couple of years removed from a trip to the PAC-12 Championship. Since 2022, however, the USC Trojans went 8-5 and then 7-6 last season with a 4-5 record in their first season in the Big Ten. The Trojans were ill-prepared for the NIL era and were scrambling to catch up but current high school recruiting suggests the gap has been closed and things have been figured out but if the Trojans fail to take a step forward in 2025 and are mediocre for a third-straight season, how will the USC administration approach his job status?

2025 Win Total: 7.5
16. Trent Dilfer - UAB Blazers
Trent Dilfer left a prestigious high school in Nashville to take a chance as the head coach of the UAB Blazers. Unfortunately for both sides, the gamble has not paid off, and the Dilfer era has been a profound disappointment. After six straight winning seasons for the Blazers, Dilfer has gone just 7-17 in two seasons, and he’s rubbed UAB supporters the wrong way with multiple comments that denigrated the job. He enters year three needing a major turnaround to save his job.

2025 Win Total: 4.5
17. Pat Narduzzi - Pitt Panthers
Is it possible that the Pat Narduzzi era has run its course? After a stunning ACC Championship in 2021, the Panthers have slipped back down to mediocrity. They began the 2024 campaign at 7-0, and any hot seat talk seemed wild, but they proceeded to suffer multiple late-game collapses and dropped their final six games. The $30 million buyout probably prevents Pitt from making any moves, but if 2025 is another disappointment, talk will certainly ramp up. The September clash against Rich Rodriguez and rival West Virginia is an important one

September 13: Pitt (-1.5) at West Virginia
18. Mike Gundy - Oklahoma State Cowboys
Mike Gundy is an institution in Stillwater. He is the winningest coach in school history with a record of 169-88, and not so long ago, he had Oklahoma State routinely in the hunt for Big 12 titles. Things move quickly in college football, though, and Gundy very nearly lost his job after last season’s disappointing 3-9 (0-9 in the Big 12). He ultimately restructured his contract and took a pay cut, and the scene is now set for 2025. It is clear that things need to improve on the field, or Gundy will be moving on.

Week One: UT Martin at Oklahoma State (-22.5)
19. David Braun - Northwestern Wildcats
David Braun is entering his third season in Evanston, and he currently has a 12-13 record with the Northwestern Wildcats. That’s not awful, but after going 8-5 in year one and impressing everyone with how he handled the team after Pat Fitzgerald was forced out amidst a hazing scandal, they took a big step backward and went 4-8 and just 2-7 in the Big Ten. The program is now entirely his, and there are not many contributors left from the Fitzgerald era, so if 2025 is another down year (and the schedule is very tough), Braun might be moved on after three seasons.

Week One: Northwestern (+6.5) at Tulane
20. Dave Aranda - Baylor Bears
Dave Aranda was as good as gone, but the Baylor Bears rallied in the second half of the 2024 season, and Aranda is still the head coach in Waco. He is now entering his sixth campaign at Baylor, and the Bears return a good corps on offense and quarterback Sawyer Robertson. This is the year that it needs to click, and if Aranda is only 31-30 in his career. If the season is a flop and the Bears fail to even contend for the Big 12 title, it could get interesting in Waco.

Week One: Auburn at Baylor (+2.5)
1. Billy Napier - Florida Gators
Billy Napier enters the 2025 season with as much job pressure as any coach in the country. He was very nearly fired last season before a late surge from his Florida Gators kept him in Gainesville for another season. He is now just 19-19 in his three seasons at Florida, along with a 10-14 record in the SEC. Napier’s future has been firmly tied to quarterback DJ Lagway, and his close ties to the budding star were considered the main reason he was given another season to prove his worth. That written, Lagway’s health is a question mark again, and the Gators have another tough schedule this season. If they fail to exceed expectations or get off to a slow start, Napier may not survive another season in The Swamp.

2025 Win Total: 7.5

Ranking the Hot Seat Coaches in College Football

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