NFL Monday Night Football Best Bets: Commanders vs Chiefs
Gabriel Santiago
Host · Writer
NFL season (and all its spoils) is in full throttle. Summer is gone, fall is here, and incidentally, there are betting opportunities nearly every day between now and next February. We’ve got you covered for Week 8!
Where to Watch Washington Commanders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Stadium: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
- Location: Kansas City, MO
- Where to Watch: ESPN/ABC
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Spread: KC -11.5 (-108) | Total: 47.5 (-115/-105)
- Moneyline: WAS +520 | KC -700
On the heels of National Tight Ends Day, the Washington Commanders (3-4) are set to visit the Kansas City Chiefs (4-3) at Arrowhead Stadium. All shops across America have this bid booked with fairly long odds for the Commanders (+520 ML at FanDuel Sportsbook), but perhaps we can find an advantageous angle here.
Notably, the Commanders will be without reigning-OROY Jayden Daniels (hamstring) in Week 8. That means backup quarterback Marcus Mariota will return to the starting lineup for Washington. Mariota has already played in three games this year. Over that span, he has accounted for an 85.8 rating along with four all-purpose touchdowns and two interceptions.
The Chiefs have regained form in 2025. After dropping its first two games of the season, Kansas City has now snapped off four victories over the past five weeks. From there, the Chiefs are currently ranked among the NFL’s top five teams in offensive (26.6 PPG) and defensive scoring (17.7 PPG). Is that something this version of the Commanders can match up with?
Two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes is playing high-quality football at this juncture. Ahead of Monday’s primetime affair, Mahomes shows a 77.9 QBR, which is a top-three figure right now. I have no doubts that KC will take care of business against Washington. However, laying 11.5 points (at FanDuel) in any NFL game is quite ambitious.
The Chiefs covered a massive spread last Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders, but I think the Commanders will put out more of a respectable fight. Washington has issues on defense, but the offense is both dynamic and productive, scoring 30.0 PPG in contests Mariota has played. Additionally, Commanders receivers Terry McLaurin (quad) and Deebo Samuel (heel) are set to resume duties; that should give Washington a jolt in the arm.
I don’t expect to see a jaw-dropping upset SU tonight, but with the lines as they are, I’ll take the points with Washington.
Best Bet: Commanders +11.5 (-112)
As noted, Week 8 has served as a fantastic reminder of why we love National Tight Ends Day. Before Monday Night Football, 11 different tight ends have scored touchdowns this week; that puts my attention on Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz.
Between the two Pro Bowlers, Ertz is showing much longer odds to find the end zone (+270). Kelce, yielding a -110 Any Time TD price, is obviously one of the top names ever to play the position, but his rampant production has dwindled over the past two-plus years.
Presently, Kelce has logged two touchdowns in 2025. Meanwhile, Ertz has hauled in four TD receptions this year (tied for fourth-most among all tight ends), pacing the Commanders in that category.
Ertz is currently operating with a 58.8% receiving success rate. If the season concluded today, that would be the second-best clip of his 13-year career. Of course, the Chiefs boast a stout defensive unit, but they are likely to keep busy with McLaurin, Samuel, and Mariota’s rushing abilities. Should that be the case, expect Ertz to leak out and make his share of plays.
Best Bet: Zach Ertz Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+270)
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NFL Week 8 Best Bets: Commanders vs. Chiefs
- Commanders +11.5 (-112)
- Zach Ertz Any Time TD Scorer (+270)
Week 8 brings numerous opportunities to set a profitable tone on the gridiron. Best of luck!
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