NFL · 3 hours ago

Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Going Into Week 4

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

You Tell Us! What Does Your 2026 Postseason Bracket Look Like?
Join the Great Playoff Debate: Who Makes the Field?

We've updated our full 14-team NFL playoff projections heading into Week 4, but now it's your turn to debate the board!
- AFC WEST WILDNESS: The Chiefs (3-0), Raiders (3-0), and Broncos (2-1) are all projected in, can all three AFC West teams hold on?
- VIKINGS SURGE: Will Minnesota's league-leading 14-sack defense carry them all the way to a high NFC wildcard seed?
- NFC EAST CONTENDERS: Can the Eagles hold onto the NFC East crown after getting thumped by Chicago on Monday night?
Drop your hot takes and playoff projections in the comments!
Projecting the 2026 NFL Playoff Picture
Road to Super Bowl LXI: Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Heading Into Week 4

Three weeks of the 2026 NFL season are in the books, and September football is officially separating true Lombardi trophy contenders from early-season pretenders. With Week 3 delivering statement blowouts, wild overtime finishes, and Monday night shockers, the postseason bracket is shifting rapidly across both conferences.

Heading into Week 4, here is our updated projection for how the 14-team NFL playoff field will stack up come January.
7. Minnesota Vikings (3-0)
NFC Wildcard (No. 7 Seed)
- The Drivers: Aaron Jones Sr., Jordan Addison (1 TD in W3), and a terrifying Brian Flores defense crashing the playoff party at 3-0.
- Why They Snag Seed 7: Minnesota features the NFL's #2 scoring defense (13.7 points allowed per game) while leading the entire league in both sacks (14) and pressure rate (40.3%).
- The Outlook: After taking down Tampa Bay 23-16, the Vikings' elite pass rush and low-turnover football make them a nightmare matchup entering October.
6. Seattle Seahawks (2-1)
NFC Wildcard (No. 6 Seed)
- The Drivers: Sam Darnold (379 passing yards, 4 TDs in W3), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (10 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TDs), and a physical "Darkside" secondary.
- Why They Snag Seed 6: Seattle holds the NFL's #1 total defense (228.7 yards allowed per game) and #1 pass defense (141.7 passing yards allowed per game), yielding just 16.7 points per game.
- The Outlook: The defending Super Bowl champions possess big-game pedigree, elite pass coverage, and enough offensive firepower to comfortably lock down a wildcard spot.
5. Los Angeles Rams (1-2)
NFC Wildcard (No. 5 Seed)
- The Drivers: Matthew Stafford (390 passing yards in W3), Davante Adams (7 REC, 137 YDS), and Kyren Williams command an offense generating 417.7 total yards per game (#1 in NFL).
- Why They Snag Seed 5: Aaron Donald anchors an interior line surrendering just 272.7 total yards per game (3rd in NFL), giving LA elite foundation metrics despite tight losses.
- The Outlook: The Rams' high-powered passing attack and star defensive front make them a dangerous lower seed no division winner wants to face.
4. New Orleans Saints (1-2)
NFC South Champion
- The Drivers: Young signal-caller Tyler Shough (29/42, 255 YDS, 4 TDs in W3) and star wideout Chris Olave give New Orleans explosive passing capability.
- Why They Win the South: The Saints lead an open NFC South race with an offense putting up 27.0 points per game and 382.7 total yards per game (305.5 passing yards per game).
- The Outlook: Shough's quick development under center gives New Orleans the highest offensive ceiling in a wide-open division.
3. Chicago Bears (2-1)
NFC North Champion
- The Drivers: Caleb Williams, when he returns from injury, D'Andre Swift, and veteran passer Case Keenum (3 TD game on MNF) have Chicago buzzing after a statement 27-7 domination of Philadelphia.
- Why They Win the North: Ben Johnson's offense is piling up 29.7 points per game (408.0 total yards per game), while their defense holds teams to 17.7 points per game with a 32.7% pressure rate.
- The Outlook: Combining a high-octane run game (184.3 rushing yards per game) with a mean-streak defense makes Chicago the team to beat in the North.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)
NFC East Champion
- The Drivers: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith are built to command the NFC East despite a Monday night stumble against Chicago.
- Why They Win the East: Philadelphia yields a solid 302.3 total yards allowed per game on defense while scoring 18.3 points per game, holding the divisional tiebreaker edge.
- The Outlook: Expect Nick Sirianni's squad to clean up situational mistakes and rely on their talent-rich roster to capture the NFC East title.
1. San Francisco 49ers (3-0)
NFC West Champion
- The Drivers: Brock Purdy (4 TD passes in W3), Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle keep Kyle Shanahan's offense operating as a premier machine.
- Why They Own the Top Seed: San Francisco is scoring 32.7 points per game (98 total points) while holding opponents to 16.7 points per game (50 total points allowed), holding a +48 point differential.
- The Outlook: After outlasting Arizona 36-30 in Week 3, the 49ers remain the undisputed favorites to secure home-field advantage throughout the NFC postseason.
7. Las Vegas Raiders (3-0)
AFC Wildcard (No. 7 Seed)
- The Drivers: Veteran passer Kirk Cousins (3 TD passes in W3) and young tight end Brock Bowers (10 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD) have the Silver & Black rolling at 3-0.
- Why They Snag Seed 7: Las Vegas holds an undefeated record backed by an aggressive defense yielding 10 sacks, 9 takeaways, and an NFL-second-best 36.3% pressure rate (+5 turnover differential).
- The Outlook: Winning games in hostile environments like New Orleans proves Rob Leonard's defense and Cousins' poise give the Raiders legitimate playoff power.
6. Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
AFC Wildcard (No. 6 Seed)
- The Drivers: Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and ageless star Derrick Henry command a terrifying power attack averaging 30.7 points per game (92 total points) and 398.7 total yards per game.
- Why They Snag Seed 6: Baltimore pulled out a thrilling 34-31 victory over Dallas in Rio, utilizing a ground assault averaging 167.3 rushing yards per game.
- The Outlook: When Jackson and Henry are executing in the second half, the Ravens can out-slug almost anyone in football.
5. Denver Broncos (2-1)
AFC Wildcard (No. 5 Seed)
- The Drivers: Sophomore quarterback Bo Nix and clutch safety Talanoa Hufanga sparked a thrilling 30-26 Sunday Night Football comeback over the Rams.
- Why They Snag Seed 5: Vance Joseph's defense is coming alive in big moments, generating 8 sacks, 4 interceptions, and a 22.6% pressure rate while holding opponents to 23.3 points per game.
- The Outlook: Back-to-back victories over Jacksonville and LA prove Denver has the defensive teeth and clutch playmaking to secure a top wildcard slot.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
AFC South Champion
- The Drivers: Trevor Lawrence (3 TD passes in W3) and head coach Liam Coen have the Jaguars firing on all cylinders following a 35-6 routing of New England.
- Why They Win the South: Jacksonville fields the NFL's #1 scoring defense, surrendering a microscopic 12.0 points per game (38 total points allowed) alongside 8 sacks and a 24.5% pressure rate.
- The Outlook: With Houston and Indianapolis struggling out of the gate, Jacksonville's elite point suppression makes them clear favorites in the AFC South.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)
AFC North Champion
- The Drivers: Joe Burrow and superstar wideout Ja'Marr Chase (9 REC, 98 YDS, 1 TD in W3) command a dangerous aerial attack averaging 26.7 points per game.
- Why They Win the North: Even after a tight 30-27 loss to Pittsburgh, Al Golden’s defense boasts 10 sacks and 5 takeaways (+2 turnover differential), holding opponents to 21.0 points per game.
- The Outlook: Cincy's balance on both sides of the ball gives them the highest long-term ceiling in a grinding AFC North race.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)
AFC West Champion
- The Drivers: Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III (2 TDs in Week 3), and Rashee Rice are orchestrating Andy Reid's offense at an elite clip, racking up 416.3 total yards per game (2nd in NFL).
- Why They Win the West: Kansas City handled South Florida heat with a 24-10 win over Miami, bringing their season average to 29.3 points per game while their defense surrenders just 16.7 points per game.
- The Outlook: Undefeated through three weeks, Mahomes and company look every bit like a championship juggernaut ready to claim another division title.
1. Buffalo Bills (3-0)
AFC East Champion
- The Drivers: Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills stay atop the AFC after outlasting the Chargers 24-16 in Week 3, pacing the conference with 101 total points (33.7 points per game).
- Why They Own the Top Seed: Buffalo features a high-flying offense averaging 401.7 total yards per game (246.7 passing yards, 155.0 rushing yards), combining Allen's deep-ball playmaking with a physical ground game.
- The Outlook: Unblemished at 3-0 with an explosive offense, the Bills remain the team to beat for the AFC's lone first-round bye.
You Tell Us! What Does Your 2026 Postseason Bracket Look Like?
Join the Great Playoff Debate: Who Makes the Field?

We've updated our full 14-team NFL playoff projections heading into Week 4, but now it's your turn to debate the board!
- AFC WEST WILDNESS: The Chiefs (3-0), Raiders (3-0), and Broncos (2-1) are all projected in, can all three AFC West teams hold on?
- VIKINGS SURGE: Will Minnesota's league-leading 14-sack defense carry them all the way to a high NFC wildcard seed?
- NFC EAST CONTENDERS: Can the Eagles hold onto the NFC East crown after getting thumped by Chicago on Monday night?
Drop your hot takes and playoff projections in the comments!
Projecting the 2026 NFL Playoff Picture
Road to Super Bowl LXI: Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Heading Into Week 4

Three weeks of the 2026 NFL season are in the books, and September football is officially separating true Lombardi trophy contenders from early-season pretenders. With Week 3 delivering statement blowouts, wild overtime finishes, and Monday night shockers, the postseason bracket is shifting rapidly across both conferences.

Heading into Week 4, here is our updated projection for how the 14-team NFL playoff field will stack up come January.

Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Going Into Week 4

Join the Great Playoff Debate: Who Makes the Field?

Road to Super Bowl LXI: Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Heading Into Week 4

NFC Wildcard (No. 7 Seed)

NFC Wildcard (No. 6 Seed)

NFC Wildcard (No. 5 Seed)

NFC South Champion

NFC North Champion

NFC East Champion

NFC West Champion

AFC Wildcard (No. 7 Seed)

AFC Wildcard (No. 6 Seed)

AFC Wildcard (No. 5 Seed)

AFC South Champion

AFC North Champion

AFC West Champion

AFC East Champion

Join the Great Playoff Debate: Who Makes the Field?

Road to Super Bowl LXI: Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Heading Into Week 4

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