NFL · 1 hour ago

Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Going Into Week 5

Joe Cervenka

Host · Writer

You Tell Us: What Does the NFL Playoff Bracket Look Like in January?
Join the Great Postseason Debate: Who Makes the Field?

We've updated our full 14-team NFL playoff projections heading into Week 5, but now it's your turn to debate the board!
- COWBOYS & PANTHERS SURGE: Can Dallas (30.5 PPG) and Carolina (405.8 YPG) maintain control of their divisions after big Week 4 victories?
- AFC WEST HEAVYWEIGHTS: Will the unblemished Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) hold off wildcard threats Denver and Las Vegas?
- VIKINGS DEFENSE: Can Brian Flores' league-leading defense (12.8 PPG allowed) carry 4-0 Minnesota to a deep playoff run?
Drop your hot takes and playoff projections in the comments!
Predicting the NFL Playoff Picture
Road to Super Bowl LXI: Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Heading Into Week 5

Four weeks of the 2026 NFL season are in the books, and October football is turning up the pressure cooker across both conferences. From dramatic fourth-quarter comebacks and London showdowns to massive division shifts, the postseason picture is getting clearer by the week.

Heading into Week 5, here is our updated projection for how the 14-team NFL playoff field will stack up come January.
7. Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
NFC Wildcard (No. 7 Seed)
- The Drivers: Kyler Murray (27/37, 247 YDS in W4), T.J. Hockenson (13 REC, 119 YDS), and Will Reichard's leg kept Minnesota undefeated with a 15-10 win over Miami.
- Why They Snag Seed 7: Brian Flores' defense leads the entire NFL in scoring defense, surrendering a microscopic 12.8 points per game (51 total points allowed).
- The Outlook: Unblemished at 4-0 behind a shutdown defense and efficient passing, the Vikings crash the NFC bracket in style.
6. Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
NFC Wildcard (No. 6 Seed)
- The Drivers: Matthew Stafford (317 PASS YDS in W4), Kyren Williams (16 CAR, 80 YDS, 2 TDs), and Puka Nacua (9 REC, 125 YDS) rallied from 10 points down to beat Philly 24-20.
- Why They Snag Seed 6: The Rams rank #2 in total offense (417.0 yards per game) and #2 in total defense (247.5 yards allowed per game), giving them elite foundational stats.
- The Outlook: Stafford's fourth-quarter heroics and a stifling defense make LA a nightmare wildcard opponent.
5. Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
NFC Wildcard (No. 5 Seed)
- The Drivers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5 REC, 76 YDS in W4), Emanuel Wilson (21 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD), and a physical secondary rebounded with a 30-23 win over the Chargers.
- Why They Snag Seed 5: Seattle holds the NFL's #1 total defense, surrendering just 246.8 total yards per game (144.8 passing yards allowed per game).
- The Outlook: Defending Super Bowl champs boast the league's top pass coverage and enough ground balance to secure a high wildcard seed.
4. Carolina Panthers (2-2)
NFC South Champion
- The Drivers: Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard (20 CAR, 122 YDS, 2 TDs in W4), and second-year phenom Tetairoa McMillan (14 REC, 192 YDS, 2 TDs) out-dueled Detroit 32-26.
- Why They Win the South: Carolina features the NFL's #4 total offense (405.8 yards per game) and #4 scoring offense (30.3 points per game), surging past a struggling South division.
- The Outlook: Dave Canales has Young and McMillan connecting on game-breaking plays, making Carolina the most dangerous offense in the South.
3. Chicago Bears (3-1)
NFC North Champion
- The Drivers: Tyson Bagent (268 YDS, 1 TD in W4), Kyle Monangai (30 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TDs), and Rome Odunze (6 REC, 94 YDS) led a 23-12 win over the Jets.
- Why They Win the North: Chicago boasts the NFL's #1 total offense (429.0 yards per game) and a rushing attack pounding out 196.3 yards per game, backed by a defense allowing just 16.3 PPG.
- The Outlook: Ben Johnson's ground-and-pound assault makes the Bears a legitimate threat to capture the North.
2. Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
NFC East Champion
- The Drivers: Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb (17 REC, 189 YDS, 1 TD in W4), and Javonte Williams (19 CAR, 62 YDS, 3 TDs) sparked a wild 34-30 road comeback over Houston.
- Why They Win the East: Dallas ranks #2 in scoring offense at 30.5 points per game (122 total points), averaging 347.5 total yards per game.
- The Outlook: Lamb's record-setting target share and Williams' red-zone finishing give Big D the edge in a shifting NFC East.
1. San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
NFC West Champion
- The Drivers: Brock Purdy (2 TD passes in W4), Christian McCaffrey (15 CAR, 52 YDS, 1 TD), and Mike Evans (5 REC, 76 YDS) have the 49ers sitting undefeated at 4-0.
- Why They Own the Top Seed: San Francisco ranks #3 in scoring defense (16.0 PPG allowed) and #3 in scoring offense (30.5 PPG), holding a dominant +58 point differential.
- The Outlook: Taking down Denver 24-14 in Week 4, Kyle Shanahan's machine remains the clear favorite for the NFC's lone bye.
7. Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)
AFC Wildcard (No. 7 Seed)
- The Drivers: Veteran passer Kirk Cousins (31/52, 365 YDS, 2 TDs in W4) and Brock Bowers continue to give the Silver & Black serious aerial punch.
- Why They Snag Seed 7: Las Vegas averages 28.8 points per game (115 total points) while fielding an aggressive front line holding opponents to 21.0 points per game.
- The Outlook: Even after a tight three-point drop to Kansas City, the Raiders' high-octane offense keeps them firmly in the AFC playoff bracket.
6. Denver Broncos (2-2)
AFC Wildcard (No. 6 Seed)
- The Drivers: Bo Nix and a gritty Vance Joseph defense stood tall despite a 24-14 loss to top-ranked San Francisco in Week 4.
- Why They Snag Seed 6: Denver's defense surrenders 23.5 points per game while generating timely takeaways and pocket pressure to keep game scores within reach.
- The Outlook: Denver's defense and Nix's steady distribution give them the floor needed to hold off wild card pursuers.
5. Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
AFC Wildcard (No. 5 Seed)
- The Drivers: Lamar Jackson (222 PASS YDS, 2 TDs in W4) and Derrick Henry (23 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD) powered Baltimore to a 24-18 victory over Tennessee.
- Why They Snag Seed 5: Baltimore averages 29.0 points per game (116 total points) and 395.0 total yards per game (5th in NFL), driven by a power-run game generating 153.5 rushing yards per game.
- The Outlook: Once Jackson returns to full health alongside Henry's workload, the Ravens are a terrifying upper-echelon wildcard squad.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
AFC South Champion
- The Drivers: Trevor Lawrence and Bhayshul Tuten (17 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD) guided Jacksonville to a clutch 22-17 road win over Cincinnati in Week 4.
- Why They Win the South: The Jaguars boast the NFL's #2 scoring defense, allowing just 13.3 points per game (53 total points allowed) and holding opponents to 354.5 total yards per game.
- The Outlook: Controlling the divisional tiebreakers with a lights-out defense makes Jacksonville the clear team to beat in the AFC South.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2)
AFC North Champion
- The Drivers: Joe Burrow (39/54, 428 YDS in W4) and Tee Higgins (11 REC, 157 YDS) command an explosive aerial engine producing 351.8 total yards per game.
- Why They Win the North: Cincy came up short in a 22-17 battle against Jacksonville, but their scoring attack (24.3 PPG) and pass rush keep them atop a tightly packed AFC North.
- The Outlook: Burrow's elite passing volume and a clutch defense give Cincy the highest ceiling in the North.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
AFC West Champion
- The Drivers: Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker III (22 CAR, 177 YDS, 2 TDs in W4), and Tyquan Thornton (2 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TDs) kept the Chiefs among the league's few remaining unblemished heavyweights at 4-0.
- Why They Win the West: Kansas City pulled out a statement 30-27 victory over Las Vegas in Week 4, averaging 29.5 points per game and 412.0 total yards per game (3rd in NFL).
- The Outlook: Walker's explosive running alongside Mahomes' late-game mastery makes the Chiefs nearly impossible to dethrone in the AFC West.
1. Buffalo Bills (3-1)
AFC East Champion
- The Drivers: Josh Allen, James Cook (75 YDS, 1 TD in W4), and Keon Coleman (6 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD) lead the NFL's highest-scoring offense at 31.8 points per game (127 total points).
- Why They Own the Top Seed: Despite a tight 29-26 loss to New England in Week 4, Buffalo ranks top-eight in total offense (386.3 yards per game) and maintains elite scoring efficiency.
- The Outlook: Allen's playmaking and Buffalo's high-octane attack keep them in position to lock down the AFC's top seed.
You Tell Us: What Does the NFL Playoff Bracket Look Like in January?
Join the Great Postseason Debate: Who Makes the Field?

We've updated our full 14-team NFL playoff projections heading into Week 5, but now it's your turn to debate the board!
- COWBOYS & PANTHERS SURGE: Can Dallas (30.5 PPG) and Carolina (405.8 YPG) maintain control of their divisions after big Week 4 victories?
- AFC WEST HEAVYWEIGHTS: Will the unblemished Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) hold off wildcard threats Denver and Las Vegas?
- VIKINGS DEFENSE: Can Brian Flores' league-leading defense (12.8 PPG allowed) carry 4-0 Minnesota to a deep playoff run?
Drop your hot takes and playoff projections in the comments!
Predicting the NFL Playoff Picture
Road to Super Bowl LXI: Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Heading Into Week 5

Four weeks of the 2026 NFL season are in the books, and October football is turning up the pressure cooker across both conferences. From dramatic fourth-quarter comebacks and London showdowns to massive division shifts, the postseason picture is getting clearer by the week.

Heading into Week 5, here is our updated projection for how the 14-team NFL playoff field will stack up come January.

Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Going Into Week 5

Join the Great Postseason Debate: Who Makes the Field?

Road to Super Bowl LXI: Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Heading Into Week 5

NFC Wildcard (No. 7 Seed)

NFC Wildcard (No. 6 Seed)

NFC Wildcard (No. 5 Seed)

NFC South Champion

NFC North Champion

NFC East Champion

NFC West Champion

AFC Wildcard (No. 7 Seed)

AFC Wildcard (No. 6 Seed)

AFC Wildcard (No. 5 Seed)

AFC South Champion

AFC North Champion

AFC West Champion

AFC East Champion

Join the Great Postseason Debate: Who Makes the Field?

Road to Super Bowl LXI: Predicting the 14-Team NFL Playoff Field Heading Into Week 5

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