Leafs Shellacking in Game 1 Only Improves Betting Value

It was a moment that had Toronto Maple Leafs’ fans looking for tee times — albeit one that has become all too familiar for the Maple Leafs faithful. In typical fashion, Toronto was humbled in its first-round series opener against the Boston Bruins. 

The 5-1 loss reverberated throughout Maple Leafs’ country, profoundly impacting their postseason outlook and betting odds. But in doing so, the betting market has cratered on the Leafs, leaving an edge in backing them in several noteworthy categories ahead of Game 2.

All Too Familiar

Virtually all the Maple Leafs opponents have shared in the merriment of a Game 1 victory. Besides a 2022 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round, Toronto has dropped five straight series openers. Included in that was last year’s stunning 7-3 defeat in Round 1 versus the Tampa Bay Lightning. 

However, as was the case last year, the Maple Leafs’ on-ice performance wasn’t reflected in the score. Likewise, we’re expecting a resounding improvement in Game 2. 

Analytics Success

Boston capitalized on several Leafs’ errors to turn the tide on Saturday; however, the visitors were the superior analytics team. 

Toronto out-chanced the Bruins in all three periods, including by a 9-1 margin in the final stanza. That production was a primary factor in the Maple Leafs putting up a substantial 59.4% expected goals-for rating as road underdogs. 

Although that didn’t translate to success in Game 1, the Leafs are poised for improved puck luck over the coming games. 

William Nylander Injury Update

NHL teams are always quiet when sharing details on the injury front. That stance won’t change when it comes to updating the status of William Nylander. Still, the Leafs’ winger was on the ice Sunday for an optional skate, which is a promising development after he missed the last two practices. 

Surely, Nylander’s return would boost the Leafs’ already promising outlook for Monday’s showdown at TD Garden. 

Futures Betting Markets

Before their stunning defeat, the Leafs had a promising position in the Stanley Cup and Eastern Conference future markets. However, both of those odds took a significant hit following the loss. 

The Maple Leafs dropped from +1400 to +2200 on the Stanley Cup futures board. Similarly, they fell to +1100 to claim their first Eastern Conference Championship in franchise history.

Series Price

Arguably, the most pronounced drop in betting odds came in the Maple Leafs’ series price over their Atlantic Division counterparts. Before action got underway, the Leafs were bought up to +100 to triumph over the Bruins in the seven-game series. But after Game 1, those odds nearly doubled to +190. 

Conclusion: Value Bet the Maple Leafs

The betting market has overcorrected relative to the series’ opening game, creating a bettor-friendly advantage in backing the Leafs. 

The score didn’t reflect the on-ice product, as the Maple Leafs outplayed the B’s from start to finish. Granted, the Bruins capitalized on the few mistakes the Leafs made, but they can’t continue to get outplayed and expect the same results. 

Based on the current offerings, there are several ways to profit off the Maple Leafs. But the best angle could be to take a position on Toronto at +190 to win the series. With six more games potentially on the horizon, bettors will have plenty of hedging opportunities to insulate their position and walk away with positive returns. 

One game didn’t decide the series winner, but it did shift the betting market far enough off-kilter to create some bettor-friendly in-roads.

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