NHL Best Bets Today: Expert March 25 Picks & Tonight’s Top Value
Grant White
Host · Writer
The NHL Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, and only a few weeks separate us from the playoffs! There are still plenty of teams in contention, meaning most of the games from here on out will have some postseason implications. We’re here for all of the drama and nightly action, offering our top betting picks for tonight’s offerings.
Grant White is a Senior NHL Analyst specializing in data-driven betting strategies. With a focus on advanced analytics, Grant blends years of hockey expertise with a rigorous model-based approach to identify high-value edges.
Check out our NHL best bets for March 25!
Where to Watch Boston Bruins vs Buffalo Sabres
- Stadium: KeyBank Center
- Location: Buffalo, NY
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Boston Bruins vs Buffalo Sabres Betting Odds
- Spread: BOS +1.5 (-145) | BUF -1.5 (+120)
- Total: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under (-110)
- Moneyline: BOS +170 | BUF -200
Boston Bruins vs Buffalo Sabres Kalshi Odds
- Chance: BOS 36% | BUF 66%
- Spread: BUF -1.5 Yes 44¢ | No 58¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 51¢ | No 51¢
Note: All odds are subject to change after article publication. Get the most up-to-date odds here.
The Eastern Conference playoff race is a convoluted mess. While the Buffalo Sabres are safe as the Atlantic Division leaders, the Boston Bruins have to fend off a myriad of challengers for one of the last two wild-card spots. While the Sabres are trying to stay in front of the Tampa Bay Lightning for the division lead, tonight’s intra-division battle means a lot more to the Bruins than the Sabres. Combined with Buffalo’s uninspired metrics, this looks like a good spot to back the visitors.
At face value, Buffalo’s recent run looks promising. They wrapped up their four-game Western Conference road trip with a 3-0-1 record, outscoring their opponents 13-2 at five-on-five. Still, the underlying metrics reveal a much more compelling narrative. The Sabres were outplayed in each one of those contests, wildly overachieving offensively. They were outchanced in scoring opportunities in all but one of those contests, achieving a more modest 8.2 expected goals-for. As expected, that inflated their PDO to an unsustainable 1.069. More succinctly, the Sabres are at risk of a short-term regression.
The Bruins’ defensive play continues to be the difference in Bean Town. Over its last three games, Boston has allowed just two goals at five-on-five, a trend supported by allowing two or fewer goals in seven of eight. With 22 or fewer scoring chances allowed in five of those contests, the B’s are also in a position to maintain that sterling standard, particularly when we factor in Buffalo’s anticipated offensive regression.
These rivals will take to the ice with playoff intensity. The Bruins are desperately trying to maintain their lead in the wild-card race. Likewise, the Sabres have the slimmest of margins atop the Atlantic Division. While we like the Bruins to triumph, we wouldn’t be surprised if it takes overtime to get there.
Best Bet: Bruins +170, 60-Minute Tie +320
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Where to Watch New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs
- Stadium: Scotiabank Arena
- Location: Toronto, ON
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Odds
- Spread: NYR -1.5 (+190) | TOR +1.5 (-265)
- Total: Over 6.5 (+105) | Under (-125)
- Moneyline: NYR -120 | TOR +100
New York Rangers vs Toronto Maple Leafs Kalshi Odds
- Chance: NYR 53% | TOR 48%
- Spread: NYR -1.5 Yes 30¢ | No 71¢
- Total: Over 6.5 Yes 45¢ | No 55¢
The Toronto Maple Leafs appear content to just run out the clock on the 2025-26 season. Sitting 12 points back of the final wild card spot with 10 games to play, the Leafs don’t have a conceivable path to the postseason. Their ineffective play is reflected in recent metrics, putting them at a disadvantage in tonight’s clash with the New York Rangers.
Toronto’s offense has looked utterly abysmal of late. With seven or fewer high-danger opportunities in seven of their last eight, the Leafs are mustering a laughable 6.1 quality chances per game. Moreover, they’ve given up 12 or more Grade A chances in all but two of those contests, yielding 11.4 per contest. Altogether, that results in a 35.0% high-danger chance rating, easily the worst in the NHL over that stretch. Predictably, that correlates with a 38.7 expected goals-for rating, damning the Maple Leafs for the rest of the season.
The Rangers aren’t the model for analytics excellence, but they do have some more promising metrics to consider. First, they’ve held four straight opponents to eight or fewer quality opportunities, outchancing two of their last three. Their output has been a little underwhelming, but there is room for improvement. Over its previous five games, New York is operating below its expected goals-for total. They should expect an immediate correction against the defensively bankrupt Maple Leafs.
The sadsack Leafs are barely hanging on. While the Rangers haven’t fared much better recently, there is substantive room for improvement. We’re betting they progress offensively in Toronto and leave with the win.
Best Bet: Rangers -130
NHL Daily Betting Guide: Best Bets for March 25, 2026
- Bruins +170
- BOS-BUF 60-Minute Tie +320
- Rangers -130
There may only be two games on tonight’s NHL docket, but we’ve got three plays lined up. We’re taking a stance on the Rangers and Bruins moneyline, adding Boston vs. Buffalo to go to overtime.
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